WG4 Oct 2006 – Sep 2007 plans COSMO General Meeting, 21 September 2006 Pierre Eckert

COSMO LEPS developments. Plan will be provided by A. Montani In view of MAP D-PHASE: Stability of the „operational“ version (EFI) Possibility to implement a parallel suite with targeting on a smaler (alpine) region PP Advanced interpretation and verification of very high resolution model PP SREPS

Priority project Advanced interpretation and verification of very high resolution model Oct 2006 – Sep 2007 plans COSMO General Meeting, 21 September 2006 Pierre Eckert

1.Explore more weather parameters with boosting 2.Verification of very high resolution model 3.Hydrological applications

Verification of very high resolution model: goals 1-3 km scale (VHR) Focus on precipitation Is VHR better than HR? Model comparisons Generate products related to the verification Way to define the scores could depend on the application (value) Use synop, (high resolution rainguage network), radar, evt. composition of all (gridded observation) This is (at least) a WG4 - WG5 project

Various types of aggregation Fuzzy verification CRA, Contiguous Rain Area Neighbourhood method Fraction skill score Intensity scale technique …………………….

Scores for 6 hour precipitation sums Solid: Assim Dotted: Spinup Blue 12km Green 4km Red 1km 1mm / 6hr threshold 4mm / 6hr threshold 16mm / 6hr threshold N. Roberts, UK Met Office Reliable scale

Preliminary work plan Review and application on real LM-K, LM-aLMo2, LM-… forecasts Workshop spring 2007 Definition of scores (few) and products (few) Project leader: open Resources

Hydrological applications HR / VHR: one model LM-EPS Interaction with MAP D-PHASE

COSMO-SREPS Priority Project C. Marsigli ARPA-SIM, Bologna, Italy

11 Plans for month test of SREPS prototype: run of COSMO-SREPS with model perturbations for 1 month of Autumn 2006: statistical analysis of the system: reject perturbations leading to always better/worst results (no true perturbations), assess the impact of the different perturbations provide b.c. for EELMK tests comparison with LM-EPS, PEPS, SREPS Definition of the methodologies to perturb initial conditions: it will start in October with a visit to Bologna of Neill Bowler from UKMO. Study the possibility of perturb observations

12 Plans for Test on a regular basis selection of the methodology to generate the perturbations : parameters: based on the analysis of the results of the 1- month test period development of the i.c. perturbations technique selection of the testing period: possible link with MAP D-PHASE (summer-autumn 2007) availability of observations (-> WG5) investigation on computer resources: COSMO units available? ensure INM data availability

13 This is the last LM-WG4 slide