NWS MARINE PREDICTION CENTER America’s Weather Warning and Forecast Service for Mariners at Sea.

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Presentation transcript:

NWS MARINE PREDICTION CENTER America’s Weather Warning and Forecast Service for Mariners at Sea

MPC Responsibility

Coverage

Forecasting the Perfect Storm… Then and Now Tamaroa

THE HALLOWEEN STORM HISTORY 26 OCT 1991 – 01 NOV 1991 “THE PERFECT STORM”

GALE 10/26/91

/27/91

HURRICANE DVLPG GALE…STORM 10/27/91

500 – 10/28/91

HURRICANE DVLPG DANGEROUS STORM 10/28/91

500 – 10/29/91

DANGEROUS STORM 10/29/91

500 – 10/30/91

DANGEROUS STORM 10/30/91

10/31/91

11/1/91

Storm tracks

IN SEARCH OF THE “ANDREA GAIL"

Two wind maximum – Perfect Storm

Buoy – Peak Waves

Buoy 44137

What has changed since 1991? Improved Computer power!!! - Higher resolution atmospheric and wave forecast models - Improved model and observation display capabilities Better Observing Tools !!! - Scatterometers…for winds - Altimetry…for waves - Satellite Imagery…IR differencing…for fog - GPS dropsondes…for forecast models - NEXRAD…doppler radar - Lightning strike data…locating significant weather Changes

Communications Improved NWS Weather Facsimile Chart Program expanded Ship Onboard Communications: - INMARSAT-C…Forecasts via Satellite - NAVTEX…Forecasts via Radiotelex - INTERNET at SEA National Weather Service Establishment of Marine Forecast Branch – 1993 Establishment of Marine Prediction Center – Dedicated core of Marine forecasters

Improved Numerical Model Guidance Sea-level Pressure Winds (color contours) Wave heights AVN Model – Winds, SLP

MPC can view and compare more models. Multiple Models

Ensemble Forecasts - Multiple model runs - Improved long range forecasts Ensembles – 576 M Height Contour

WaveWatch III Model – Improved Significant Wave Forecasts NOAA Wavewatch III – October 28, 1999

WaveWatch III Model – Improved Wave Period Forecasts NOAA Wavewatch III – Peak Wave Periods – Swell Front

HURRICANE ANDREW OUTFLOW GFDL Model in VIS-5D – Andrew 1992 Improved Hurricane Forecast Models

THE MODERN MPC MARINE FORECASTER MPC High Seas Forecast Desk

SCATTEROMETER WINDS -Ocean surface wind speed/direction determined by satellite based active radar/passive (radiometer) microwave sensors Scatterometer Winds 2/21/00 Storm

Lightning Detection - Positive/Negative Strikes

New Marine Prediction Center Internet Web Site MPC Wave Analysis – Hurricane Gert

Ship Observation quality control

TODAY’S FORECASTING CHALLENGES - RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING CYCLONES - WAVES…SIGNIFICANT, PEAK, SWELL - GULF STREAM EFFECTS - RAPID FLOW - LONG RANGE - DAY 3 TO 5 PERFECT STORM MPC gave hours lead time in Would MPC do a better job forecasting The Perfect Storm now? YES! Unequivocally with today’s new Observational and forecast tools. Challenges