2015 Missouri Economic Forecast Dr. David Mitchell, Director Bureau of Economic Research Professor of Economics
Missouri Business Loans Thds of 2014 SA dollars
Missouri Real Estate Loans Thds of 2014 SA dollars
Real Missouri Bank Loans Past Due days (thds of dollars)
Real Missouri Bank Loans Past Due 90+ days (thds of dollars)
Missouri Real Personal Income (2014 Constant $ SAAR)
Growth in Personal Income (Year over year)
0.78%
Change in Real Weekly Wages Year over Year
Change in Real Weekly Wages Since Recession Start
Missouri Unemployment Rate 6.3% 9.6%
Major City Unemployment Rates 6.4%
Other Unemployment Rates 4.9% 6.0%
Labor Force in Missouri
+ 55,800 over 27 months
Labor Force in Missouri
Missouri Employment *Peak 2,811K (2/2008) *Trough 2,649K (1/2010) *Current 2,789K [11/2006]
Missouri Employment *Peak 2,811K (2/2008) *Trough 2,649K (1/2010) *Current 2,789K [11/2006] 2,754K Dec 99
Index of Missouri and US Employment (Jan 2000 = 100)
Change in Missouri Employment (thds) (Sep 2013 to Sep 2014)
Change in Missouri Employment (thds) (Jun 2009 to Present)
Change in Missouri Employment (Pct growth - Jun 2009 to Present)
Missouri Employment (Percent Change Year over Year)
Change in Missouri Employment (SA Establishment Survey with 100 = 1 st month of recovery)
Employment Growth in Missouri (Jan 2000=100)
Employment Growth in Missouri (1 st month of recovery =100)
Missouri Employment Breakdown Industry Jan 2014Sep 2014Change Change in Percent Employ (CPS) SA 2,843.52, Nonfarm (CES) NSA 2,695.72, Nonfarm (CES) SA 2,749.42, Private 2,294.92, Construction Financial Government Health Information Leisure Manufacturing Mining Prof Biz Services Retail Trans/Utilities Wholesale Other Services
Millions of Real Missouri Sales Taxes (End of Fiscal Year) in Sep ‘12 Dollars
Millions of Real Missouri Sales Taxes (YTD) in Sep ‘12 Dollars
Millions of Real Missouri Corporate Income Taxes (End of Fiscal Year) in Sep ‘12 Dollars
Millions of Real Missouri Corporate Income Taxes (YTD) in Sep ‘12 Dollars
Millions of Real Missouri Income Taxes (End of Fiscal Year) in Sep ‘12 Dollars
Millions of Real Missouri Income Taxes (YTD) in Sep ‘12 Dollars
Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey Interviewed 400 people in MoKan, Arkansas, and Oklahoma Identical questions to the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey so that the results can be compared directly This is used to create an index which tracks consumer sentiment relative to a past date
Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey June 2014 National RegionalArkansas Missouri Oklahoma Index
Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey All Families Families Under $75,000 Families Over $75,000 Regional Missouri
Missouri Compared to the US
Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey Expected Change in Financial Situation in a Year
Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey Expected Change in Business Conditions in a Year
Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey Expected Change in Business Conditions in 5 Years
2015/2016 Missouri Forecast Industry 2014 Actual 2015 F2016 F Sep 2014 Nonfarm (CES)2,787.72,827.12,856.2 Private2,331.22, , Construction Financial Government Health Information Leisure Manufacturing Mining Prof Biz Services Retail Trans/Utilities Wholesale Other Services Unemployment Rate (SA) Real Personal Income 252,490.4 (Q2)255,745259,746