Meteorology 415 Fall 2011 Review of Forecast 1 Contest 2 Allentown, PA

FAA Identifier: ABE Lat/Long: N / W N / W / (estimated) Elevation: 393 ft. / m (surveyed) Variation: 12W (2005) From city: 3 miles NE of ALLENTOWN, PA

Observations from Allentown KABE Z 13005KT 10SM SCT019 26/20 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP137 T = KABE Z 15007KT 10SM BKN019 26/20 A2994 RMK AO2= KABE Z 14006KT 10SM FEW023 SCT085 27/21 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP131 T = KABE Z 12006KT 10SM BKN019 26/20 A2992 RMK AO2= KABE Z 15007KT 10SM SCT025 BKN030 26/21 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP124 T = KABE Z 12009G14KT 10SM SCT025 BKN032 26/21 A2990 RMK AO2= KABE Z 11007KT 10SM SCT025 BKN033 BKN040 26/21 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP126 T = KABE Z 10009KT 10SM FEW024 SCT028 BKN038 26/21 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP125 T = KABE Z 11014G20KT 10SM FEW021 BKN030 OVC041 24/21 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP128 T = KABE Z 13010G20KT 10SM FEW019 BKN026 OVC070 24/21 A2993 RMK AO2= KABE Z 13010G18KT 10SM SCT025 SCT039 BKN110 23/21 A2993 RMK AO2= KABE Z 12008KT 10SM SCT028 BKN035 23/21 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP133 T =

Observations from Allentown ► KABE Z 11008KT 10SM FEW013 BKN041 22/20 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP140 T = ► KABE Z 10010KT 10SM BKN013 OVC034 22/20 A2996 RMK AO2= ► KABE Z 11008KT 10SM BKN015 OVC034 22/19 A2996 RMK AO2= ► KABE Z 09006KT 10SM BKN015 BKN080 OVC100 22/19 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP142 T = ► KABE Z 08007KT 10SM SCT013 BKN100 OVC110 22/19 A2995 RMK AO2= ► KABE Z 08007KT 10SM BKN013 BKN028 BKN095 22/19 A2995 RMK AO2= ► KABE Z 09006KT 10SM BKN013 BKN028 22/19 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP142 T = ► KABE Z 09009KT 10SM OVC011 21/19 A2996 RMK AO2 RAB0255E09 SLP141 P0000 T = ► KABE Z 10009KT 10SM OVC011 21/19 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP136 T = ► KABE Z 09007KT 10SM -RA OVC009 21/19 A2994 RMK AO2 RAB26 CIG 006V013 SLP134 P T ► 56007= ► KABE Z 10006KT 10SM FEW007 BKN013 OVC024 21/19 A2993 RMK AO2 RAE0555 P0000= ► KABE Z 09007KT 10SM BKN009 BKN013 OVC024 21/19 A2994 RMK AO2 RAE0555 CIG 006V011 P0000= ► KABE Z 10008KT 10SM OVC009 21/19 A2993 RMK AO2 RAE0555 CIG 006V014 SLP131 P0000 T = ► KABE Z AUTO 09008KT 10SM -RA OVC009 21/19 A2991 RMK AO2 RAB10E19B51 CIG 006V012 SLP127 P0000 T TSNO= ► KABE Z AUTO 10007KT 8SM RA BKN007 BKN018 OVC045 20/19 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP128 P T TSNO= ► KABE Z AUTO 09007KT 5SM +RA BR SCT007 BKN030 OVC060 20/19 A2992 RMK AO2 P0003 TSNO= ► KABE Z AUTO 09007KT 5SM +RA BR SCT007 BKN030 OVC060 20/19A2992= ► KABE Z AUTO 09006KT 7SM -RA SCT007 BKN026 OVC047 20/19 A2992 RMK AO2 P0007 TSNO= ► KABE Z 09007KT 10SM -RA FEW007 OVC024 21/19 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP130 P0007 T = ► KABE Z 09007KT 10SM FEW006 BKN014 OVC031 21/19 A2993 RMK AO2 RAE01 P0000= ► KABE Z 09007KT 10SM BKN008 OVC016 21/19 A2993 RMK AO2 RAE01 CIG 005V013 SLP131 P0000 T = ► KABE Z 09006KT 10SM OVC006 21/20 A2995 RMK AO2 RAB28E47 SLP137 P T =

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Lessons Learned - ABE ► The distance to the action makes a difference in initiation of rain – that is a slow moving disturbance’s advection fields (thermal and wind) lose their influence farther away from its boundaries ► Precipitation tends to be ‘debris’ in a near steady-state environment ► Low ceilings are easier to come by in a very humid air mass!

Fort Wayne, IN

FAA Identifier: FWA Lat/Long: N / W N / W / (estimated) Elevation: 814 ft. / m (surveyed) Variation: 03W (1985) From city: 7 miles SW of FORT WAYNE, IN

Observations from Fort Wayne KFWA Z 16016G21KT 10SM FEW023 BKN070 BKN230 17/11 A2977 RMK AO2 SLP T = KFWA Z 16014KT 10SM FEW031 BKN070 BKN085 17/11 A2976 RMK AO2 SLP075 T = KFWA Z 26007KT 5SM RA BR BKN029 OVC037 13/11 A2977 RMK AO2 RAB07 P0002= KFWA Z 26006KT 5SM +RA BR OVC031 13/11 A2977 RMK AO2 RAB07 P0007= KFWA Z 24010KT 2 1/2SM +RA BR SCT031 BKN035 OVC044 13/12 A2977 RMK AO2 RAB07 SLP081 P0021 T = KFWA Z 22004KT 4SM RA BR FEW029 BKN044 OVC065 13/12 A2977 RMK AO2 P0010= KFWA Z 16003KT 10SM FEW055TCU BKN075 BKN250 14/12 A2976 RMK AO2 RAE44 SLP076 TCU W P T = 57005= KFWA Z 18004KT 10SM SCT017 BKN026 BKN070 BKN140 15/13 A2978 RMK AO2 SLP082 T = KFWA Z 20004KT 10SM FEW017 BKN030 BKN075 BKN140 15/12 A2977 RMK AO2= KFWA Z 25010G15KT 10SM FEW022 BKN085 BKN110 BKN250 15/12 A2979 RMK AO2 SLP087 T = KFWA Z 23004KT 10SM FEW022 BKN055 OVC200 13/11 A2980 RMK AO2 SLP T =

Observations from Fort Wayne ► KFWA Z 23004KT 10SM FEW022 BKN055 OVC200 13/11 A2980 RMK AO2 SLP T = ► KFWA Z 14004KT 10SM FEW050 SCT100 OVC200 12/11 A2980 RMK AO2 SLP093 T = ► KFWA Z 19008KT 10SM BKN026 OVC100 13/11 A2981 RMK AO2= ► KFWA Z 20007KT 10SM OVC021 13/11 A2981 RMK AO2 SLP096 T = ► KFWA Z 18006KT 10SM SCT021 OVC031 13/11 A2981 RMK AO2= ► KFWA Z 18007KT 10SM BKN019 OVC032 13/11 A2981 RMK AO2= ► KFWA Z 18006KT 10SM BKN019 OVC029 13/11 A2981 RMK AO2 SLP093 T = ► KFWA Z 18007KT 10SM BKN019 OVC032 13/11 A2981= ► KFWA Z 18006KT 10SM BKN019 OVC029 13/11 A2981= ► KFWA Z 17006KT 9SM OVC019 13/11 A2980 RMK AO2 SLP091 T = ► KFWA Z 16007KT 10SM -DZ OVC017 13/11 A2979 RMK AO2 DZB11 SLP087 P0000 T = ► KFWA Z 18007KT 10SM BKN021 BKN030 OVC035 13/11 A2978 RMK AO2 DZE27RAB27E47 SLP082 P T ► = ► KFWA Z 18006KT 8SM FEW010 BKN021 OVC033 13/12 A2978 RMK AO2 RAB06E53 SLP084 P0002 T = ► KFWA Z 19007KT 8SM OVC016 13/12 A2977 RMK AO2 SLP081 T = ► KFWA Z 20004KT 8SM FEW013 BKN023 OVC035 13/12 A2978 RMK AO2 SLP T = ► KFWA Z 18005KT 8SM FEW022 BKN029 OVC038 13/11 A2978 RMK AO2 SLP085 T = ► KFWA Z 19006KT 6SM BR SCT014 OVC027 13/11 A2979 RMK AO2 SLP087 T = ► KFWA Z 19005KT 7SM FEW018 OVC035 13/11 A2980 RMK AO2= ► KFWA Z 19005KT 6SM BR BKN020 OVC035 13/11 A2980 RMK AO2= ► KFWA Z 20005KT 5SM BR SCT020 BKN029 OVC037 13/11 A2980 RMK AO2 SLP T =

Synoptic Pattern

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Surface Analysis

Verification

Standings

Lessons Learned – Fort Wayne ► The east side of a trough is the action zone. ► The advection fields are more dynamic near the center of the upper cut-off. ► Breaks in the clouds produce self-destruct showers. ► Winds can be gusty due to mixing from convection. ► Temperatures tend to stay in a narrow range.