Generalisation & Aggregation SIXTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME [6.1] [ Sustainable Energy Systems] Philipp PREISS Universitaet Stuttgart Brussels, February 17, 2009

Emissions Physical Impacts Transport and chemical Transformation Monetary Evaluation Impact Pathway Approach Calculation is made twice: with and without project! Differences of Physical Impacts

●Ideally, site specific marginal damage costs are calculated ●However, i.Policy questions need more general answers, such as, external costs per kWh from coal fired power stations, i.e. an average for country or EU ii.Input data is not site specific, for example, emissions from up- and downstream processes for construction of photovoltaic iii.Damage factors, such as [Euro per tonne SO2] are needed as input for different models (energy, economic, etc.) iv.Sophisticated dispersions models are costly in CPU time ●Solution:  Site dependent, i.e. country specific damage factors Trade-off: Accuracy vs. Applicability

Regional Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling Example: one SR-matrix:  due to 15% emission reduction of SO2 in one region  concentration increment prim. and sec. pollutant in each 50 x 50 km grid cell  delta concentration per unit of emission  Generalisation & Aggregation  [Euro per tonne] Regional modelling with EMEP/MSC-West Eulerian dispersion model from MET.NO  Source-Receptor (SR)-matrices for EU maritime divided in 66 sub-regions - 5 different meteorological years  averaging the results - 2 different background scenarios = present & future emissions - emissions form all sources and high stacks separately

Background Emissions (SO 2, NO x, NH 3, NMVOC) grid for Europe ca. 50km * 50km -15% SO 2 in sub-region 4,d Sketch Source Receptor Matrices Approach ΔConc. sulphates ΔConc. ozone & & % NO x in sub- region 4,d & & % xy in sub- region i,j ……….

SR-matrices for 66 sub-regions

Prim. & sec. pollutants [µg/m3] [mg / m2] [ppb*day] ShortcutComment aNH 4 ammonium particles (ammonium nitrate and sulphate) aNO 3 nitrate part. With diameter below 2.5µm DDEP_OXNtotal dry deposition of oxidized nitrogen DDEP_RDNtotal dry deposition of reduced nitrogen DDEP_SOXtotal dry deposition of sulphur pNO 3 nitrate part. with diameter above 2.5 a. below 10 µm SIAsecondary inorganic aerosols SO 4 sulphate, includes also ammonium sulphate SOMO35sum Over Means Over 35 ppb tNO 3 tNO 3 is total coarse and fine nitrate aerosols WDEP_OXNwet deposition of oxidized nitrogen WDEP_RDNwet deposition of reduced nitrogen WDEP_SO x wet deposition of sulphur PPM 25 & PPM co primary particles with diameter below 2.5 µm

 AccExp SO 4 2- [ pers * µg/m³]  0.16 YOLL  ca. 6,400 Euro Example for Sulphates Exposure due to 1 t SO 2 Emission in S-Germany

Euro per Tonne (all sectors) in 2025 (selected countries)