Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crop Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 22 February 2010 For Real-time information:

Outline Highlights ENSO Current Status MJO Current Status Monsoons Current Status Northern Hemisphere Circulation Rainfall & Temperature Patterns NCEP/GFS Model Forecast

Canada and US: Temperature anomalies have changed little over the past several weeks with above average temperatures in Canada and below average temperatures over the eastern two thirds of the US. The GFS forecasts wetter conditions to return to the western and southern US over the next 7 days. Mexico and Central America: Precipitation impacted central and southern Mexico and parts of the Caribbean islands. The GFS indicates above average precipitation for Central America and parts of the Caribbean islands over the next 7 days. Eurasia: Below average temperatures continued across parts of Europe and northern Russia. Over the next 7 days the GFS predicts wet conditions for western Europe and drier than average precipitation over Indonesia. Highlights

ENSO Current Status General Summary: El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring During the last 4 weeks (24 Jan - 20 Feb 2010), equatorial SSTs were more than 1.0°C above average between 175°E and 125°W. For more information go to:

MJO Current Status The MJO Index indicates a signal in phases 7 and 8 with little or non-steady eastward movement, which is consistent with El Nino conditions. The GFS MJO index forecasts indicate that the signal will remain generally in phases 6, 7 and 8 with no eastward propagation. El Nino conditions continue to contribute to the strong amplitude and non- steady behavior of the MJO index forecast.  The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes  The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO  Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation.  Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength  Line colors distinguish different months MJO Index -- Recent EvolutionEnsemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean For more information go to:

Northern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status North AmericaWest AfricaEast Asia For more information go to: Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days During the last 90 days near to below average rainfall has occurred over the southwest US and northwest Mexico. During the last 90 days near average rainfall has occurred in west Africa near Senegal and Guinea. Near average rainfall has occurred in the coastal Gulf of Guinea region and Sudan. During the last 90 days below average rainfall has occurred in parts of southern China and above average precipitation has occurred in eastern China. Monsoon Season: JUN-SEP Monsoon Season: MAY-OCTMonsoon Season: JUN-SEP

Northern Hemisphere Circulation 200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies - Recent 7 days During the 7-day period ( Feb 2010), an anomalous 200-hPa anticyclonic circulation center was located over the Middle East, while anomalous cyclonic circulation centers were located over eastern North America and western Europe. During the same 7-day period temperature anomalies were above average over eastern Canada and northeastern Africa. Temperatures were below average over the southeastern US, northern Russia, and eastern Asia. Low-level (~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out. A C C

Northern Hemisphere Circulation Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than- normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions. Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days During the 7-day period ( Feb 2010), anomalous rising motion (negative omega) was observed over Mexico, northern Africa, and southern Europe (top panel red ovals). During the same time period precipitation was observed over many of the same areas. CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations.

Canada and US Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 7 days, precipitation was below average in the western and southeast US, while precipitation was near average in eastern Canada.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 15 days, drier than average conditions have prevailed over the Pacific Northwest, western Canada, and parts of the southeast US. A series of major winter storms has led to an anomalously high snowpack over the mid-Atlantic.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 30 days, precipitation was above average in the south US plains which is consistent with El Nino.

30 day rainfall totals are below average in the northwest US, below average in northern California, and near average in the central US and in Florida. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Minimum During the past week temperatures were above average over much of Canada. These are conditions reflective of the ongoing negative Arctic Oscillation (AO). AnomalyExtreme Minimum

Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Minimum Above normal temperatures prevailed this past week across the western US. Snow cover and the negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) have contributed to below average temperatures in the southern plains and mid-Atlantic region. Wet conditions helped keep temperatures at or below average in central Mexico. AnomalyExtreme Minimum

TotalAnomaly NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 22 Feb 2010 – Days 1-7 For Days 1-7 wet conditions are forecast to return to the western and southern US, and dry conditions are forecast for the east-central US, consistent with El Nino.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 8-14 wet conditions are forecast for the Alaskan coast and the southeast US. Forecasts from 22 Feb 2010 – Week 2

Mexico and Central America Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 7 days, precipitation impacted central and southern Mexico and parts of the Caribbean islands. For more information see:

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 15 days, a series of storms brought substantial precipitation to much of central and southern Mexico, leading to near normal precipitation amounts.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 30 days, precipitation was above average across much of Mexico associated with a southward shifted storm track during this period.

Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days 30 day rainfall totals are above average in northern and central Mexico and below average rainfall in southern Mexico and Nicaragua/Honduras. Above average precipitation amounts over central Mexico was due to a period of anomalously wet days in early February.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 22 Feb 2010 – Week 1 For Days 1-7 above average precipitation is forecast for central America and parts of the Caribbean islands.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 8-14 near average precipitation is forecast for Mexico and Central America. Forecasts from 22 Feb 2010– Week 2

Eurasia Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 7 days, strong onshore flow brought heavy rain to southwest Europe and northwestern Africa.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 15 days, above average precipitation was observed over southern Europe, northwest Africa, eastern China, and parts of Indonesia.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 30 days, many of the same areas as in the previous slide have experience above average precipitation.

Heavy precipitation impacted Portugal and Spain in recent days. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Minimum AnomalyExtreme Minimum During the past 7 days below average temperatures prevailed across western Europe. In northwest Africa temperatures were near to above average in northwest Africa.

Temperature (C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Minimum Temperatures were below average in northwest Russia and close to average in central Russia after several weeks of below average temperatures.

30 day rainfall totals are below average in Gujarat into central India, above average in eastern China, and below average in Luzon. Over the past few weeks precipitation has increased in Luzon. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

Temperature (C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Minimum Temperatures were below average across all of China. Temperatures fell below freezing low temperatures south of the Yangtze River Valley.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 22 Feb 2010 – Week 1 For more information on Tropical Hazards see: (updated on Tuesdays) For Days 1-7 the GFS forecasts above average precipitation for western Europe, and near to above average precipitation is forecast for eastern Asia. Below average precipitation is likely for Indonesia associated with El Nino.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 8-14 below average precipitation is likely for Indonesia associated with El Nino. Forecasts from 22 Feb 2010 – Week 2

Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS) Hazards Impacts Assessments for Central America Africa Afghanistan Meteorological Products for the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS-NET) Mesoamerica Famine Early Warning System (MFEWS) Asia Flood Network (AFN) Funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Additional products at:

USDA Crop Information Major World Crop Areas and Climate Profiles Crop Calendars by Month