Applying Population Ecology: Human Population Ch. 9

Demography The study of size, structure, and make up of human populations. The study of size, structure, and make up of human populations. Demographers study the causes and important social, health and economic effects of population changes. Demographers study the causes and important social, health and economic effects of population changes.

Factors Affecting Human Population Size Factors Affecting Human Population Size Population size depends upon Population size depends upon birth ratesbirth rates death ratesdeath rates immigration rates (into area)immigration rates (into area) emigration rates (exit area)emigration rates (exit area) Pop. change = (b + i) - (d + e)

Crude Birth and Death Rates Instead of measuring births/deaths per year, demographers look at crude birth and death rates. Instead of measuring births/deaths per year, demographers look at crude birth and death rates. Natality- Number of individuals added through reproduction Natality- Number of individuals added through reproduction Crude Birth Rate - Births per 1000 Mortality - Number of individuals removed through death Mortality - Number of individuals removed through death Crude Death Rate - Deaths per 1000

Global Population Change Death rates have declined, however, not as fast as birth rates. Therefore, our global population is still increasing, yet at a slower rate. Death rates have declined, however, not as fast as birth rates. Therefore, our global population is still increasing, yet at a slower rate. More than 82% of the global pop. lives in DEVELOPING nations! More than 82% of the global pop. lives in DEVELOPING nations! Annual rate of population change (%) = Birthrate – Death rate x 100 Annual rate of population change (%) = Birthrate – Death rate x 100 1,000 persons 1,000 persons *In 2004, the global growth rate was 1.25% annually. (~80 M people) Most developed countries – 0.1% Most developed countries – 0.1% Developing countries - ~1.5% Developing countries - ~1.5%

1. Total births - total deaths/ total population r = 23, , 228 = =.66% r = 23, , 228 = =.66% 942, , birth rate (b) -death rate (d) r = = =0.7% r = = =0.7% (Total births + total immigration) - (total deaths + total emigration) total population r = (23, )-(17, ) = = 1.4% r = (23, )-(17, ) = = 1.4% 942, , (birth rate+ immigration rate) - (death rate + emigration rate) x 100 r = ( ) - (18 + 3) = = 1.4% r = ( ) - (18 + 3) = = 1.4% ways to calculate a pop. rate of change ( r )

Determining future Pops: Remember: N (t) = N 0 e rt N(t) = population after t years N 0 = initial population size r = growth rate t = time

Determine the future population of Duttania: Remember: N (t) = N 0 e rt The island of Duttania has 435 people. Their growth rate is 2%. What will be the population after 10 years? A: 531 people.

Population Density # of indiv. of a species unit of area ex. 270,000,000 people = 29 people/Km 2 in the US 9,166,605 Km 2 9,166,605 Km 2

Time it takes for a population with a stable growth rate to double in size Time it takes for a population with a stable growth rate to double in size Doubling Time = t d = 70/ r (growth rate) Ex. Brazil will double its population in how many years with the present growth rate of 1.7%? A: 70/1.7 = 41.2 years Doubling Time

Demographic Facts: The nations that will experience the most growth over the next 50 years, in order: 1. India 2. China 3. Pakistan 4. Nigeria 5. Bangladesh 6. Indonesia 5 most populated countries, in order: (2004) 1. China 2. India 3. U.S. 4. Indonesia 5. Brazil

Effect of Fertility on Population Growth Two types of fertility rates affect a country’s pop. size and growth: 1) Replacement-level fertility (RLF) - number of children that a couple should have to replace both parents (Developed countries 2.1, Some developing countries 2.5- due to child mortality)

Effect of Fertility on Population Growth continued.. 2) Total fertility rate (TFR) = average number of children that a woman will have in her reproductive years (0 - 5+) In 2004, average global TFR was 2.8 / woman. This was a decline from 5/woman in (In 2004, Highest TFR was in Africa with average of 5.2) In 2004, average global TFR was 2.8 / woman. This was a decline from 5/woman in (In 2004, Highest TFR was in Africa with average of 5.2) Most useful measure of fertility for projecting future populations.Most useful measure of fertility for projecting future populations.

Global Total Fertility Rates

Population growth TFR needs to drop to 2.1 in order to stabilize the population. (Takes into account infant mortality) *NEED TO REDUCE # OF BIRTHS! TFR > RLF = pop growth TFR > RLF = pop growth TFR = RLF = steady population TFR = RLF = steady population TFR < RLF = pop slow down TFR < RLF = pop slow down

10 Factors affecting Birth rate and Fertility rate 1. Average level of education and affluence 2. Importance of children as a part of the labor force 3. Urban areas (with access to family planning) 4. Cost of raising and educating children 5. Education and employment opportunity for women 6. Infant mortality rate 7. Average age of marriage and 1st child 8. Availability of pension system 9. Availability of legal abortions 10. Birth control/religion

Factors affecting Death rate Population increase is not necessarily due only to increased birth rate, but also decreased death rate. 1. Life expectancy – aver. # of years a newborn is expected to live 2. Infant mortality rate = # of babies out of 1000/year who died before their 1 st birthday. Important measure of quality of life since it is linked to so much of society!

10-2: Population Age Structure The age structure diagram sorts the number of people into groups. The age structure diagram sorts the number of people into groups. The population is usually divided up into The population is usually divided up into Prereproductives (not mature enough to reproduce)Prereproductives (not mature enough to reproduce) reproductives (capable of reproduction) reproductives (capable of reproduction) Postreproductives (too old to reproduce)Postreproductives (too old to reproduce) The age structure of a population dictates whether is will grow, shrink, or stay the same size. The age structure of a population dictates whether is will grow, shrink, or stay the same size.

Age Structure Diagrams Positive Growth Zero Growth Negative Growth (ZPG) Pyramid Shape Vertical Edges Inverted Pyramid

Be able to identify potential countries based on diagrams!

10-3: Solutions: Influencing Population Size Controversy over whether govts. should encourage/discourage pop. growth Controversy over whether govts. should encourage/discourage pop. growth China – 1 child lawChina – 1 child law India – limited access to family planningIndia – limited access to family planning Family Planning - providing educational and clinical services that help couples choose how many children to have and when to have them.

Demographic Transition Model 2 Transitional 1 Preindustrial 3 Industrial 4 Post- industrial

10-4: Case Studies of China and India Population Paradox movie will cover the details – so take notes!

10-5: Cutting Global Population Growth 1994 – UN held conference to encourage action in stabilizing the global population to 7.8B by 2050, instead of the projected 8.9B – UN held conference to encourage action in stabilizing the global population to 7.8B by 2050, instead of the projected 8.9B. 180 countries agreed to follow the following guidelines by 2015: 1.Provide universal access to family planning service and 2.reproductive health care 3.Improve health care for infants, children and pregnant women 4.Develop and implement national pop. Policies 5.Improve status of women; expand educ. for women and young girls and job opportunities 6.Increase the involvement of men in child rearing responsibilities and family planning 7.Sharply reduce poverty – famine, disease, etc. 8.Greatly reduce unsustainable patterns of production and consumption

Success Stories: Thailand – intro on p. 176 Thailand – intro on p. 176 Iran – p. 190 Iran – p. 190