The fed playing into our hands Analysis Monday – worst case appears to be the 30 movin up a couple of more days, makng a lower high as the 10 makes.

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Presentation transcript:

The fed playing into our hands

Analysis Monday – worst case appears to be the 30 movin up a couple of more days, makng a lower high as the 10 makes a lower high and rolls over. This could come late this week. If it does that could be the correction. The story would be softness in Europe showing up in multinational companies. This is inevitable,and will lead to more outperformance by domestic u.s. eincome producers, and unlikely but maybe small caps which produce u.s. revenues. Europe will slow U.S. economy while the carry trade moves stocks up. Something has to give.

tuesday

wednesday

Yesterday dropped out of range on high volume. Odds favor markets eventually moving to oversold.

Today – inside day – no new information.

This is what it looks like up close

Advances and decliners – net advancing issues Upside volume less downside volume New highs vs. new lows Points gained vs. points lost

FEB 2002 OCT 2002 DEC 2002 Ongoing Bear Market

DEC 2007 Leading up to bear market

SEPT 2008 Led to The Crash of September 2008

SEPT MARCH AUGUST In the late stage demand is eroding

SEPT MARCH AUGUST

Selling pressure now at lowest point since 2009 No sign of Bear Market

Why does US deserve higher p/e? is it just a bad deal? Or ….