RuralStruc Program Structural dimensions of liberalization in agricultural and rural development M’Bour Workshop April 2006 April 13 World Bank (ESSD)

Reminder Originality  Thematic  Operative Opportunity Collective challenge  To offer a new perspective, to raise new questions  To provide a quality work  To overcome the methodological difficulties and the problems of information

Expectations from Phase 1 To provide a comprehensive synthesis of the structural change processes  Existing situation  Trajectories / tendencies To test the hypotheses To identify key issues, strategic topics in which to invest in during the 2nd phase in order to improve / consolidate the analysis

Stakes “To pass the review” by the peers and satisfy to the expectations of the donors of the program (October 2006)  Steering committee  Advisory committee Two intermediate opportunities  WDR: World Development Report 2008 (June )  GDN: Global Development Network (Conference January 2008) Final audience:  Type of publication  International seminar To contribute to the debate on policies  International debate  National debates

Organization Deadline / Countdown  October 2006 => October 2007 A feedback process  An internet website with statistics, reference texts, intermediate documents To identify phases To inform of the problems to obtain support

What do we need? “We” know many things Abundance of available information But there are problems regarding:  Quality  Coherence  Absence We need:  To organize  To prepare “bricks” / indicators that will enable us to build arguments  To harmonize the arguments by resorting to the same type of data Five (5) large sets:

1. The base Political regimes Demographic evolution Macro-economic evolution

2. International insertion Structure of exchanges The “Agreements”  Bilateral  Regional  Multilateral

3. Public policies Genesis/ Periodization  content  implementation Role of the State and public goods Decentralization

4. Production structures Agricultural production  By main regions Agro-food production  What economic agents, types of firms Food balance

5. Market structures Commodity markets  By commodity chains Factors markets  Credit / land / employment / inputs / services

What framework? The positioning: a political economy of agriculture and rural sectors and their place in the national context (roles, status) A study of the condition of the transitions, the trajectories, the “risks and the dangers” What structure for the analysis?  A proposition in 4 steps:

1. Evolution of the global context A periodization by:  Political changes  Policy changes History of the liberalization / relations with the donors  Evolution of the international insertion (trade balance) Allowing an identification / explanation of the “founding moments” – the critical junctures

2. Market structures Organization of markets Evolution of relative prices (prices / costs) What is the stage in the integration process?  By commodity chains (vertical integration)  By the distribution networks: the “supermarket revolution”  The development of contract farming  The processes of concentration What is the situation of factors markets: complete / incomplete?

3. The process of “segmentation” What is the impact of agro-food market restructuring on the production and agrarian structures?  What is the technical and economic differentiation among the farms? What are the already existing categories of farms? In the future?

4. What locking and what reshaping? What are the populations / social groups and the vulnerable areas / regions?  “Vulnerable people and places”?  Evolution of rural poverty  Degradation of natural resources What are the exit options?  Migrations to cities, abroad?  To what sectors of activities? What consequences for rural households?  multi-activity, multi-locality …