International Telecommunication Union Connect the World The Future of Voice: Framing the debate ITU New Initiatives Workshop 15-16 January 2007, Geneva.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

“The Internet in South East Asia” Sam Paltridge, OECD Organized by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), hosted by the Post and Telegraph.

Advertisements

Tariff policies for achieving Universal Service / Universal Access Dr Tim Kelly, International Telecommunication Union (ITU) Workshop on settlement reform.

Global trends in telecom development Dr Tim Kelly (ITU) Future development of Telecoms and Strategic Initiatives of the ITU HKUST, 7 th December 2000 The.

International Telecommunication Union ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Esperanza Magpantay Market, Economics and Finance Unit (MEF) Telecommunication.

Pricing strategies for an incumbent operator: Part A: Fixed line The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect.

Next Generation ICT Indicators: Challenges and Opportunities Dr Tim Kelly, Lead ICT Policy Specialist, World Bank ITU Regional Workshop on ICT Indicators,

ITU/BDT Arab Regional Workshop on Future of Voice Salalah – Oman, 2-4 August 2008 Future of Voice - Framing the Debate Dr. Abdelfattah ABUQAYYAS ICT/HRD.

Tariff rebalancing: International experience The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the.

International Telecommunication Union Employment and Productivity in the CEE Telecommunication Sector ITU Regional Workshop on HR Management Tools and.

Long live voice! The Voice over DSL Opportunity

GSC: Standardization Advancing Global Communications TIA’s 2006 Telecommunications Market Review and Forecast Briefing URL for more information:

1 Globalizing Trend of China’s Mobile Internet Mr. Houlin Zhao Deputy Secretary-General, ITU China Mobile Internet Summit InterContinental Beijing, China.

IP Telephony: Economic implications and impact on PTOs Dr Tim Kelly, International Telecommunication Union, IP Telephony Workshop, Geneva, 14 June 2000.

1 The Role of Governments in the Future of Voice – Singapore’s Perspective Presented by Melinda Tan 16 January 2007 ITU Workshop- “The Future of Voice”,

M A Y T E L E C O M S E C T O R : O V E R V I E W Presentation to FIN 824 (SPRING QUARTER) Marc Reitter Siddhesh Sankulkar T E L E C O M S E C.

Module 4: Understanding Recent Trends in ICT Policy Dr Tim Kelly, Lead ICT Policy Specialist, infoDev/World Bank Sunday 8 March 2009.

Vivien Foster & Cecilia Briceño-Garmendia, World Bank.

Internet pricing and price comparisons Dr Tim Kelly, ITU ITU/TOT Workshop on ‘Trends in Telecom Prices and Costing in Developing Economies of the Asia.

Telecommunication Markets in the Nordic Countries 1 - Per

IP Telephony Regulation in Korea Information & Communication Policies for the Digital Economy Korea Information Strategy Development Institute Chong-Hoon.

VoIP in South and Eastern Europe: Strategy and Policy Considerations Anna Riedel The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do.

Telecommunication Markets in the Nordic and Baltic Countries 2014.

International Telecommunication Union Committed to Connecting the World The World in 2009: ICT Facts and Figures Jaroslaw K. PONDER Strategy and Policy.

Voice Over Internet Protocol Finance & Investment Club Telecommunications Sector Arlind Hoxha Summer 2012.

International Seminar on ICT Policy Reform and Rural Communication Infrastructure, Keio University, Japan Rethinking telecom reform model: the case of.

1 Global Information and Communication Technologies Department June 10, 2009.

Joint UNCTAD-ITU-UNESCAP Workshop Information Society Measurements in Asia-Pacific Bangkok, July 2006 Ms. Esperanza C. Magpantay Statistician Market,

Telecommunication Markets in the Nordic and Baltic Countries 1 - Per

Liberalisation of the Australian telecommunications industry Richard Home Senior Manager – Strategic Analysis & Development, Communications Group Australian.

Communications: Government and Business Practices in the Asia Pacific Region Khelia Johnson, J.D. Future of Voice Workshop.

1 Highlights of the OECD’s Communications Outlook 2007: Focus on Mexico Dimitri Ypsilanti Directorate for Science, Technology and Industry, OECD.

Copyright © 2001, Fonet Global Inc. VoIP Business trends.

GLOBECOM 2004 IEEE COMMUNICATIONS SOCIETY Telecom Business Forum Thursday, December 2, 2004 Beyond Broadband Business Sanghoon Lee KT.

Global trends in telecom development Havana, 22 October 2001 The original document was elaborated by Dr Tim Kelly, ITU/SPU. It has been completed by Saburo.

Global trends in telecom development Saburo TANAKA Councellor ITU/TSB The original document is elaborated by Dr Tim Kelly, ITU/SPU. It has completed by.

Commercial aspects of the Internet The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or.

Interconnection principles The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or its Membership.

ITU Statistical Activities Esperanza C. Magpantay Market, Economics and Finance Unit (MEF) International Telecommunication Union EUROSTAT Working Group.

Presentation to Joint Oireachtas Committee [27/01/2016] Jeremy Godfrey, Chairperson Kevin O’Brien, Commissioner Gerry Fahy, Commissioner.

An overview of the critical issues underlying interconnection The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect.

International Telecommunication Union Helping the world communicate Status of VoIP worldwide, 2006 Background paper for The Future of Voice ITU Workshop.

Asia Leading the future Yoshio UTSUMI, Secretary-General, ITU Forum Opening, ITU T ELECOM A SIA 2004 Busan, 7 September.

Pricing IP Services: For data and voice Dr Tim Kelly, ITU “Workshop on Trends in Regional Telecom Prices in Asia-Pacific” Bangkok, Sept 2000 Note:

ICT statistics for benchmarking economic performance The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions.

Asia-Pacific Telecommunications September 15, 2000 Christopher Irwin Standard & Poor’s and Taiwan Ratings.

1 OVERVIEW OF TISP WORK: Analysis of Policies and Regulations Carrier Selection and Pre-selection Indicators of the Assessment of Telecommunications.

International Interconnection issues Dr Tim Kelly, Head, Strategy and Policy Unit, ITU, ITU Workshop on Interconnection, Sanya City, August 2001.

Regulatory environment for fixed-mobile interconnection The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions.

Network Planning Workshop with Tool Case Studies for the Arab Region – I.S. Session ITU-BDT Regional Network Planning Workshop Cairo – Egypt, 16.

AFRINET 2000 IP Telephony Regulatory Issues International Telecommunication Union The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and.

Internet Diffusion: Egypt case study Tim Kelly, International Telecommunication Union, Arab States Telecom & Internet Summit, Oman, May 2001 The.

Examining the Opportunities and Challenges for ISPs in Developing Countries Laura Männistö International Telecommunication Union ISP Forum,

11 th Report on European Electronic Communications Regulation and Markets 2005 Viviane Reding – Commissioner DG Information Society and Media 20 February.

Price comparisons: Purpose and Practice An introduction to the OECD Tariff Comparison Model Dr Tim Kelly, ITU “Workshop on Trends in Regional Telecom Prices.

International Telecommunication Union 1 The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU.

Regulatory frameworks and safeguards: Comparative models for reform The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect.

Telecommunication Markets in the Nordic and Baltic Countries 2015.

Mobile Internet and its impact on Interconnection

Fixed-Mobile Interconnection Issues

International Regulatory:

Telecommunication Markets in the Nordic and Baltic Countries 2014

Challenges of the Digital Revolution

Telecommunication Sector Dynamics Trends, Opportunities and Challenges

An overview of the critical issues underlying interconnection

Mr. Cleveland Thomas Vice Chairman Working Party 2/3 Study Group 3 ITU-T.

IP connectivity in the Least Developed Countries

Global trends in telecom development CTO Annual Council, Gaborone,

ITU World Telecommunication Indicators

FOV Round Table Agenda for Action

Presentation transcript:

International Telecommunication Union Connect the World The Future of Voice: Framing the debate ITU New Initiatives Workshop January 2007, Geneva Tim Kelly and Jaroslaw Ponder Strategy and Policy Unit International Telecommunication Union

15 January 2007 Connect the World 2 Framing the Debate: Agenda  Trends in traditional voice communication  Revenue and price trends for voice and data  Is the “pricing per minute” business model sustainable?  Some questions for discussion

15 January 2007 Connect the World 3 Local telephone minutes per capita in US still growing 0 2'000 4'000 6'000 8'000 10'000 12'000 14'000 16'000 18' France Japan New Zealand Spain Switzerland United Kingdom United States Source: ITU World Information Society Statistics In US continuous growth of local traffic. During last 15 years number of generated local call minutes per capita grew more than 4 times. Tentative US Trend

15 January 2007 Connect the World 4 Local telephone minutes per capita in other countries '000 1'200 1'400 1'600 1'800 2' France Japan New Zealand Spain Switzerland United Kingdom Source: ITU World Information Society Statistics General tendency of local fixed-line traffic to fall esp. since end of 1990s Tentative Trend

15 January 2007 Connect the World 5 National telephone minutes per capita (long distance) Source: ITU World Information Society Statistics '000 1'500 2'000 2'500 3'000 3' Australia France Japan New Zealand Spain Switzerland United Kingdom United States General tendency of national fixed line traffic to fall since end of 1990s Tentative Trend

15 January 2007 Connect the World 6 International outgoing traffic minutes per capita Australia France Japan Korea (Rep. of) New Zealand Spain Switzerland United Kingdom United States Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Tentative Trend In Korea, international outgoing traffic grew more than 12 times in last 15 years (tendency growing); in USA more than 5 times.

15 January 2007 Connect the World 7 Factors underlying traffic trends?  Overall expansion of user base  The pressure of competition and market liberalisation  Emerging alternative communication platforms (e.g., mobile, VoIP)  Influence of the Internet, esp. Voice over Internet Protocol and peering  Peer-to-peer technologies (e.g., Skype)  Overall migration to the all-IP environment Do people communicate more now?

15 January 2007 Connect the World 8 Long-term telecom revenue trends '000 1'200 1' Revenue (US$ billion) Domestic PSTN International PSTN Mobile Other (e.g., non-voice) Source: ITU Information Society Statistics Database.

15 January 2007 Connect the World 9 Voice revenues stable as % of total revenue '000 1'200 1' % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Non-voice Voice (inc SMS, dial-up) Voice as % of total Revenue (US$ billion)Voice as a % of total Source: ITU Information Society Statistics Database.

15 January 2007 Connect the World 10 Broadband price trends Source: ITU Internet Reports 2006: Digital.Life.  International survey of broadband prices  Based on 133 economies that had broadband as early as 2004  Methodology  Based on price in US$ per 100 kbit/s  Price trends  Median price has fallen by 41% p.a.  Median speed has risen by 66% p.a.  Faster than Moore’s Law

15 January 2007 Connect the World 11 The trend towards flat-rate pricing Number of economies DataTime BothFlat-rate 75% 68% 81%  Broadband pricing  Flat-rate is now preferred to both time- based and data capped  Similar trends towards bundling and flat-rate in voice market too  Voice offered “free” with internet and premium TV services Source: ITU Internet Reports 2006: Digital.Life.

15 January 2007 Connect the World 12 Is the “price per minute” business model sustainable? Yes  Well understood and simple (both for retail and wholesale)  Proven cash generator for telcos  Can accommodate different classes of service No  Pricing per minute is based on scarcity  Users want predictable monthly bills  Pricing per minute hinders take-up of data/content services

15 January 2007 Connect the World 13 Some questions for discussion  Will voice remain a trillion dollar business or will the business model collapse under pressure from VoIP?  How can voice service be profitably extended (e.g., premium quality, chat, integration with other services, universal access, etc)  Will voice drive NGNs? (just like it drove ISDN, freephone, 3G etc)

15 January 2007 Connect the World 14 International Telecommunication Union Connect the World