The Age of Obama and the Lessons of the 1930s Institute for Research on Labor and Employment Institute for Research on Labor and Employment October 29,

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Presentation transcript:

The Age of Obama and the Lessons of the 1930s Institute for Research on Labor and Employment Institute for Research on Labor and Employment October 29, 2010 John M. Quigley Housing Bubble and Bust

Obama Administration Mortgage Programs: October 2010 Home Affordable Refinancing ~borrowers current on payments ~mortgages guaranteed by F&F Home Affordable Modification (HAMP) ~borrowers who owe less than $725K ~hardship (medical bills) ~P/I greater than 31% Second Loan Modification ~HAMP participants Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives (HAFA) ~short sales ~deed in lieu of foreclosure * But one out of six modifications is currently 60 days past due Hardest Hit Fund ~$600M to 5 HFAs $1.4M “trials” * $0.5M “permanent” * $1.7M *

1.Housing Prices 2.Housing Construction 3.Mortgage Market

Distressed Sales as Percentage of Total Sales

1.Administration Programs of Very Limited Importance 2.Aggregate Demand of Great Importance 3.Bleak Outlook for Housing Starts, Housing Prices