Science and Context Presentations: “Following the Water” 1. Scenarios (Maria Wright) 2. Climate (Phil Mote) 3. Hydrology (Roy Haggerty) 4. Snowpack (Anne.

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Presentation transcript:

Science and Context Presentations: “Following the Water” 1. Scenarios (Maria Wright) 2. Climate (Phil Mote) 3. Hydrology (Roy Haggerty) 4. Snowpack (Anne Nolin) 5. Forests (Dave Turner) 6. Reservoir Operations and Tradeoffs (Kathleen Moore) 7. Urban Demand (Christian Langpap) 8. Population and Land Use (Bill Jaeger) 9. Agricultural Demand (Bill Jaeger) 10. Law (Adell Amos) 11. Fish (David Hulse) Willamette Water December 4, 2015

About these Slides 2Willamette Water 2100 – December 4, 2015 The following slides are from three minute presentations scientists gave to introduce project results by topic area at the Willamette Water 2100 Capstone Workshop on December 4, The short presentations were followed by round table discussions that provided more detail. These slides represent work in progress and can be used in presentations with attribution, but should not be cited as final work. This project is supported by the National Science Foundation under Grants No , and Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in these slides are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.

1. Scenarios Presenter: Maria Wright, Oregon State University Willamette Water December 4, 2015

Elements Climate Population & Income Forests Development Reservoir Ops Urban Water Price Agriculture Water Claims Environmental Flows WW2100 Scenarios 20 scenarios 1 Reference 19 alternative Each scenario varies one or more element Willamette Water December 4, 2015

10 of the 20 Scenarios Willamette Water December 4, 2015

2. Climate Presenter: Philip Mote, Oregon State University Willamette Water December 4, 2015

NW precipitation WY2015: -10% Willamette Water December 4, 2015

David Rupp and Julie Vano Willamette Water December 4, 2015

3. Hydrology Presenter: Roy Haggerty, Oregon State University Willamette Water December 4, 2015

Willamette River at Portland. Reference case. In bottom and right figures, shading is as follows. Light blue = LowClim. Blue-green = HighClim. Brown = all modeled changes in human systems (population, land use, etc.). Willamette Water December 4, 2015

Hydrologic drought days for the Willamette River at Portland. One day of hydrologic drought is a day in which the 30-day running mean discharge is below the 10th percentile of 30-day mean discharges. Shading is Light blue = LowClim. Blue-green = HighClim. Brown = all modeled changes in human systems (population, land use, etc.) except for No Reservoirs. Willamette Water December 4, 2015

4. Snowpack Presenter: Anne Nolin, Oregon State University Willamette Water December 4, 2015

Rising winter temperatures lead to an overall decline in snowpack and earlier snowmelt. Snow water equivalent declines by 63-95%. Low elevation snow is gone. There is decadal variability but a significant downward trend April 1 Snow Water Equivalent Willamette Water December 4, 2015

5. Forests Presenter: David Turner, Oregon State University Willamette Water December 4, 2015

Willamette River Basin in 2010 Willamette Water December 4, 2015

Cumulative Area Burned Willamette Water December 4, 2015

Upland Forest Mean Evapotranspiration Willamette Water December 4, 2015

6. Reservoir Operations and Tradeoffs Presenter: Kathleen Moore, Oregon State University Willamette Water December 4, 2015

Flood Control Benefits Estimated value for one week in January: Willamette Water December 4, 2015

Storage Shortfalls Estimated recreation losses: Willamette Water December 4, 2015

Marginal Value of Water for Recreation Estimated dollars per acre-foot per day: Willamette Water December 4, 2015

7. Urban Demand Presenter: Christian Langpap, Oregon State University Willamette Water December 4, 2015

DETERMINANTS OF URBAN WATER DEMAND Residential Price (-0.6) Income (0.13 flat, 0.18 IBR) Population (1.0) Density (-0.05) Non-residential Price (-0.6) Commercial Income (0.04) Industrial Income (0.11) Population (0.85) Variables and response parameters chosen based on a review of the economics literature on urban water demand. Variables that can be forecasted over the entire study period, either as exogenous drivers (income, population growth) or generated within the Envision framework (population density). Willamette Water December 4, 2015

The model of urban water demand predicts total daily water use. Predicted trends vary with changes in key drivers such as population or price. Willamette Water December 4, 2015

Predicted urban water use is adjusted for seasonality. Urban water use varies significantly between winter and summer, and between indoor and outdoor uses. Indoor water use goes largely to non-consumptive uses and is returned to stream flow in amounts roughly the same as the amounts diverted. Outdoor water use is largely used consumptively in backyard evapotranspiration, evaporation, or seeps into groundwater. Willamette Water December 4, 2015

8. Population & Land Use Presenter: Bill Jaeger, Oregon State University (representing Andrew Plantinga, UC-Santa Barbara, and Dan Bigelow, Oregon State University) Willamette Water December 4, 2015

Population and income growth result in urban land expansion at the expense of agricultural and forest land Growth, land use & water - Andrew Plantinga & Dan Bigelow Willamette Water December 4, 2015

Land values: 2010 vs Willamette Water December 4, 2015

9. Agriculture Presenter: Bill Jaeger, Oregon State University Willamette Water December 4, 2015

Agriculture, Irrigation, Water use - William Jaeger & Alexey Kalinin Willamette Water December 4, 2015

Projected development of irrigated lands Willamette Water December 4, 2015

Predicted changes in summer flows in Tualatin River – due to urban expansion and irrigation contraction Willamette Water December 4, 2015

per acre Extra conveyance cost for stored water irrigation Instream water rights Willamette Water December 4, 2015

10. Law Presenter: Adell Amos, University of Oregon (no slides) Willamette Water December 4, 2015

11. Fish Presenter: David Hulse, University of Oregon (representing Stan Gregory, Oregon State University) Willamette Water December 4, 2015

Willamette River Fish Communities Stan Gregory Oregon State University Willamette River Fish Database ( Willamette Water December 4, 2015

Major Take Home Messages – Fish Project Native fish make up the vast majority of fish captured in the Willamette River (97% native species). This is an ecological foundation for both conservation and restoration actions in the Willamette River basin. Fish species richness and abundance were greater in the upper river, which was more geomorphically diverse and cooler. The upper Willamette River is another ecological foundation for linking the river network and the different portions of the basin. Salmonids were mostly collected in the upper river, particularly cutthroat trout and rainbow trout. Future changes in river temperatures and habitat complexity are major challenges for aquatic ecosystems. The occurrence of cold-water species is likely to decrease as river temperatures warm in the future. The river is changing because of human caused changes in hydrology and sediment supply. A new river is forming. We need to develop a more rigorous and widely shared vision of the new Willamette River. Willamette Water December 4, 2015

HarrisburgSalemI-5 Br in Portland Willamette Water December 4, 2015