Chapter 9 Fundamentals of Capital Budgeting

Chapter Outline The Capital Budgeting Process Forecasting Incremental Earnings Determining Incremental Free Cash Flow Other Effects on Incremental Free Cash Flows Analyzing the Project Real Options in Capital Budgeting

Learning Objectives Identify the types of cash flows needed in the capital budgeting process Forecast incremental earnings in a pro forma earnings statement for a project Convert forecasted earnings to free cash flows and compute a project’s NPV Recognize common pitfalls that arise in identifying a project’s incremental free cash flows Assess the sensitivity of a project’s NPV to changes in your assumptions Identify the most common options available to managers in projects and understand why these options can be valuable

Cash Flows in a Typical Project

Forecasting Incremental Earnings Operating Expenses Versus Capital Expenditures – Operating Expenses – Capital Expenditures

Forecasting Incremental Earnings Operating Expenses Versus Capital Expenditures – Depreciation Depreciation expenses do not correspond to actual cash outflows – Straight-Line Depreciation

Forecasting Incremental Earnings Incremental Revenue and Cost Estimates – Factors to consider when estimating a project’s revenues and costs: 1.A new product typically has lower sales initially 2.The average selling price of a product and its cost of production will generally change over time 3.For most industries, competition tends to reduce profit margins over time

Forecasting Incremental Earnings Incremental Revenue and Cost Estimates – The evaluation is on how the project will change the cash flows of the firm Thus, focus is on incremental revenues and costs

Forecasting Incremental Earnings Incremental Revenue and Cost Estimates Incremental Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT) = Incremental Revenue – Incremental Costs – Depreciation

Forecasting Incremental Earnings Taxes – Marginal Corporate Tax Rate The tax rate a firm will pay on an incremental dollar of pre-tax income Income Tax = EBIT  The Firm’s Marginal Corporate Tax Rate

Forecasting Incremental Earnings Incremental Earnings Forecast Incremental Earnings = (Incremental Revenues – Incremental Costs – Depreciation)  (1 – Tax Rate)

Example Incremental Earnings Problem: Suppose that Linksys is considering the development of a wireless home networking appliance, called HomeNet, that will provide both the hardware and the software necessary to run an entire home from any Internet connection. HomeNet will also control new Internet-capable stereos, digital video recorders, heating and air-conditioning units, major appliances, telephone and security systems, office equipment, and so on. Based on extensive marketing surveys, the sales forecast for HomeNet is 50,000 units per year. Given the pace of technological change, Linksys expects the product will have a four-year life and an expected wholesale price of $260 (the price Linksys will receive from stores). Actual production will be outsourced at a cost (including packaging) of $110 per unit.

Example Incremental Earnings Problem (cont'd): To verify the compatibility of new consumer Internet-ready appliances with the HomeNet system as they become available, Linksys must also establish a new lab for testing purposes. They will rent the lab space, but will need to purchase $7.5 million of new equipment. The equipment will be depreciated using the straight-line method over a 5-year life. Linksys' marginal tax rate is 40%. The lab will be operational at the end of one year. At that time, HomeNet will be ready to ship. Linksys expects to spend $2.8 million per year on rental costs for the lab space, as well as rent marketing and support for this product. Forecast the incremental earnings from the HomeNet project.

Example Incremental Earnings Solution: We need 4 items to calculate incremental earnings: (1) incremental revenues, (2) incremental costs, (3) depreciation, and (4) the marginal tax rate: – Incremental Revenues are: additional units sold  price – = 50,000  $260 = $13,000,000 – Incremental Costs are: additional units sold  production costs – = 50,000  $110 = $5,500,000

Example Incremental Earnings Plan: Selling, General and Administrative = $2,800,000 for marketing and support Depreciation is: Depreciable basis / Depreciable Life = $7,500,000 / 5 = $1,500,000 Marginal Tax Rate: 40% Note that even though the project lasts for 4 years, the equipment has a 5-year life, so we must account for the final depreciation charge in the 5th year.

Example 9.1 Incremental Earnings

Determining Incremental Free Cash Flow Converting from Earnings to Free Cash Flow – Free Cash Flow The incremental effect of a project on a firm’s available cash – Capital Expenditures and Depreciation

Determining Incremental Free Cash Flow Calculating Free Cash Flow Directly

Determining Incremental Free Cash Flow Converting from Earnings to Free Cash Flow – Net Working Capital Trade Credit – The difference between receivables and payables is the net amount of the firm’s capital that is consumed as a result of these credit transactions Net Working Capital = Current Assets  Current Liabilities = Cash + Inventory + Receivables  Payables

Incremental Free Cash Flows

Incorporating Changes in Net Working Capital Suppose that HomeNet will have no incremental cash or inventory requirements (products will be shipped directly from the contract manufacturer to customers). However, receivables related to HomeNet are expected to account for 15% of annual sales, and payables are expected to be 15% of the annual cost of goods sold (COGS). Fifteen percent of $13 million in sales is $1.95 million and 15% of $5.5 million in COGS is $825,000. HomeNet’s net working capital requirements are shown in the table below.

Incorporating Changes in Net Working Capital Change in NWC

Incorporating Changes in Net Working Capital The incremental free cash flows would then be:

Calculating the NPV – To compute a project’s NPV, one must discount its free cash flow at the appropriate cost of capital – Assume that Linksys’s managers believe that the HomeNet project has risks similar to its existing projects, for which it has a cost of capital of 12%. Compute the NPV of the HomeNet project.

Example 9.5 Calculating the Project’s NPV Solution: The incremental free cash flows for the HomeNet project are (in $000s):

Other Effects on Incremental Free Cash Flows Opportunity Costs Project Externalities – Cannibalization Sunk Costs – Fixed Overhead Expenses – Past Research and Development

Other Effects on Incremental Free Cash Flows Adjusting Free Cash Flow – Time of Cash Flows – Accelerated Depreciation MACRS – Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System

Computing Accelerated Depreciation Problem: What depreciation deduction would be allowed for HomeNet’s $7.5 million lab equipment using the MACRS method, assuming the lab equipment is designated to have a five-year recovery period?

Computing Accelerated Depreciation Solution: Under MACRS, we take the percentage in the table for depreciation for each year and multiply it by the original purchase price of the equipment to calculate the depreciation for that year. Based on the table, the allowable depreciation expense for the lab equipment is shown below (in thousands of dollars).

Computing Accelerated Depreciation Evaluate: Compared with straight-line depreciation, the MACRS method allows for larger depreciation deductions earlier in the asset’s life, which increases the present value of the depreciation tax shield and so will raise the project’s NPV. In the case of HomeNet, computing the NPV using MACRS depreciation leads to an NPV of $3.179 million.

Other Effects on Incremental Free Cash Flows Adjusting Free Cash Flow – Liquidation or Salvage Value When an asset is liquidated, any capital gain is taxed as income Capital Gain = Sale Price  Book Value Book Value = Purchase Price  Accumulated Depreciation After-Tax Cash Flow from Asset Sale = Sale Price  (Tax Rate  Capital Gain)

Computing After-Tax Cash flows from an Asset Sale Problem: As production manager, you are overseeing the shutdown of a production line for a discontinued product. Some of the equipment can be sold for a total price of $50,000. The equipment was originally purchased 4 years ago for $500,000 and is being depreciated according to the 5-year MACRS schedule. If your tax rate is 35%, what is the after-tax cash flow you can expect from selling the equipment?

Computing After-Tax Cash flows from an Asset Sale Solution: In order to compute the after-tax cash flow, you will need to compute the capital gain, which requires you to know the book value of the equipment. The book value is given as the original purchase price of the equipment less accumulated depreciation. Thus, you need to follow these steps: 1.Use the MACRS schedule to determine the accumulated depreciation. 2.Determine the book value as purchase price minus accumulated depreciation 3.Determine the capital gain as the sale price less the book value. 4.Compute the tax owed on the capital gain and subtract it from the sale price.

Computing After-Tax Cash flows from an Asset Sale Execute: From the chapter appendix, we see that the first four years of the 5-year MACRS schedule (including year 0) are:

Computing After-Tax Cash flows from an Asset Sale Thus, the accumulated depreciation is 100, , , , ,600 = 471,200, such that the remaining book value is $500,000 - $471,200 = 28,800. (Note we could have also calculated this by summing any years remaining on the MACRS schedule (Year 5 is 5.76%, so.0576  500,000 = 28,800). The capital gain is then $50,000 - $28,800 = $21,200 and the tax owed is 0.35  $21,200 = $7,420. Your after-tax cash flow is then found as the Sale price minus the tax owed: $50,000 - $7,420 = $42,580.

Other Effects on Incremental Free Cash Flows Replacement Decisions – Often the financial manager must decide whether to replace an existing piece of equipment The new equipment may allow increased production, resulting in incremental revenue, or it may simply be more efficient, lowering costs

Replacing an Existing Machine Problem: You are trying to decide whether to replace a machine on your production line. The new machine will cost $1 million, but will be more efficient than the old machine, reducing costs by $500,000 per year. Your old machine is fully depreciated, but you could sell it for $50,000. You would depreciate the new machine over a 5-year life using MACRS. The new machine will not change your working capital needs. Your tax rate is 35%, and your cost of capital is 9%. Should you replace the machine?

Replacing an Existing Machine Plan: Incremental revenues: 0 Incremental costs: -500,000 Depreciation schedule (from the appendix): Capital Gain on salvage = $50,000 - $0= $50,000 Cash flow from salvage value: +50,000 – (50,000)(.35) = 32,500

Replacing an Existing Machine Execute:

Replacing an Existing Machine Execute (cont’d):

Replacing an Existing Machine Evaluate: Even though the decision has no impact on revenues, it still matters for cash flows because it reduces costs. Further, both selling the old machine and buying the new machine involve cash flows with tax implications. The NPV analysis shows that replacing the machine will increase the value of the firm by almost $599 thousand.

Replacing an Existing Machine Problem: You are trying to decide whether to replace a machine on your production line. The new machine will cost $5 million, but will be more efficient than the old machine, reducing costs by $1,500,000 per year. Your old machine is fully depreciated, but you could sell it for $100,000. You would depreciate the new machine over a 5-year life using MACRS. The new machine will not change your working capital needs. Your tax rate is 40%and your cost of capital is 9%. Should you replace the machine?

Analyzing the Project Sensitivity Analysis – A capital budgeting tool that determines how the NPV varies as a single underlying assumption is changed

Best & Worst-Case Assumptions for Each Parameter in the HomeNet Project

HomeNet’s NPV Under Best & Worst-Case Parameter Assumptions

Analyzing the Project Break-Even Analysis – Break Even The level of a parameter for which an investment has an NPV of zero

Analyzing the Project Break-Even Analysis Operating breakeven point Accounting Break-Even SalesP x Q less: Variable Cost(v x Q) less: Fixed Cost(F) EBITDA(P-v)Q - F Less: Depreciation(Dep) EBIT(P-v)Q - F - Dep less: Interest payment(I) EBT(p-v)Q -F - Dep - I Less: TAX= t%-t[(P-v)Q -F- Dep - I] Net Income[(P-v)Q - F - Dep - I](1 - t) Plus: Depreciation+Dep Cash Flow[(P-v)Q -F - Dep - I](1 -t) + Dep

Analyzing the Project OVERALL BREAK-EVEN POINT PRESENT VALUE BREAK-EVEN POINT

Break-Even Analysis Graphs

Analyzing the Project Scenario Analysis – A capital budgeting tool that determines how the NPV varies as a number of the underlying assumptions are changed simultaneously

Scenario Analysis of Alternative Pricing Strategies

MACRS Depreciation Table Showing the Percentage of the Asset’s Cost That May Be Depreciated Each Year Based on Its Recovery Period