POPULATION ISSUES Population has grown from 1 billion in 1800 to over 6 (7) billion today. 80% of the world’s population lives in LDC’s 90% of the world’s population lives above the equator. People are living longer in virtually all countries. Why? Medical revolution Arithmetic (linear) growth: 2,4,6,8,10,12, etc…. Exponential growth: 2,4,8,16,32,64,128, etc…. Population grows exponentially. Define demographics

Doubling time The number of years it takes for a population to double. At a rate of 3% growth per year, a population will double in 25 years. For now and the foreseeable future, most live in Africa and Asia. Technology has allowed people to adapt to natural constraints in growth. First Agricultural Revolution Second Agricultural Revolution Third Agricultural Revolution Neolithic Revolution Industrial Revolution Green Revolution

When does a country become overpopulated? When it exceeds its carrying capacity (when it can’t feed its people.) Terminology: Rate of natural increaseAffected by economic development (healthcare, employment, nutrition, education.) Crude birth rateCrude death rate Fertility rate Infant mortality rate Crude birth rate minus crude death rate (+ - immigration

The better women are educated, the lower the RNI. Gender empowerment Cultural traditions: Women are expected to stay home and raise children. Public policy: China, India, France How is the One Baby Policy affecting China’s future?

Population Sustainability PEDS make up around 25% of the world’s population, yet use 75% of the world’s resources. The percentage of the world’s surface that is fit or habitation is called the “ecumene.”

Population density: Arithmetic density Physiological densityAgricultural (arable) density The heaviest populated regions. Is population density a good gauge for development?

Demographic Transition Model Stage I: high birth rate, high death rate, little growth. This describes most of human history. Stage II: high birth rate, low death rate. Industrial and medical revolution. Stage III: low birth rate, low death rate. A generally balanced population. Peds and pings? Stage IV: low birth rate, low death rate. Population is not being replaced, population decline.

Thomas Malthus Economist writing at the turn of the 18 th /19 th centuries, Malthus predicted dire consequences as the population began to boom. He stated the population would soon exceed the food supply. Based on what he saw in Britain during the Industrial Revolution. What did he not account for? Note: if there is no majority group but multiple minorities, the group with the highest growth rate will eventually become the majority and population growth will mirror their growth. Neo-Malthusians: They are predicting the population will outstrip resources. technology

Population pyramids Displays the gender and age of age groups. Which are peds, which are pings? Give an example of a country (region) that would match each pyramid. You can predict trends for the future.

Moving population pyramid of China Demographic momentum The time (process) it takes for a population to begin to drop even after the birth rate has been reduced.

What does this pyramid imply economically regarding the Chinese population in Indonesia?

Dependency ratioThe number in the population that is below 15 and over 65 (the dependants.)

Remember, the population in many MDC’s is declining, while most of the population growth in the world is coming in LDC’s. How will this affect: poverty, development, migration, culture, resources, conflict? 30 d N