Population Dynamics, Climate Change, and Sustainable Development in Kenya James Ciera and Nyokabi Ruth Musila Study Report Launch and Consultative Seminar Southern Sun Mayfair, Nairobi 22 nd November, 2012

Study Objectives Regional study Case studies: Kenya and Malawi Objectives: – Examine linkages between population dynamics climate changes and and sustainable development in Kenya. – Assess landscape for integration of population dynamics and climate change at policy. – Make policy and programme recommendations for strengthening the linkages and integration.

Study Methods Analysis of demographic data. Desk review of literature and policy documents. Indepth interviews with policy makers and representatives of development partners, and civil society organizations.

Key Messages The combined effects of population growth and climate change are escalating food insecurity, depletion of natural. resources, environmental degradation, and poverty levels in Kenya. The government and other African government recognize these are key development issues. However, the issues are not prioritize at resource allocation level and they are mostly addressed in silos. In order for Kenya to develop sustainably, it should prioritize and integrate programmes for addressing population change and climate change challenges.

Projected Population for Kenya ( ) Total Fertility Rates Low Fertility Variant Medium Fertility Variant High Fertility Variant

Contraceptive uptake and fertility trends in Kenya

The year in which Kenya reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size.

More Kenyans will live in urban areas, presenting new opportunities and challenges for sustainable development

The number of people living in urban poverty is increasing rapidly as Kenya becomes more urban, creating new environmental challenges

Effects of Rapid Population Growth High child dependency ratios Poor health and wellbeing outcomes for mothers and children Depletion of natural resources such as forests Fragmentation and overuse of agricultural land Limited resources to invest in human capital development (education and health) Undermines poverty alleviation efforts …

Key Climate Change Effects in Kenya Unpredictable weather patterns – Short rainy seasons and prolonged dry spells leading to water scarcity and desertification – Flooding and displacement of people – Low and unstable hydro-electricity production Rising sea levels and changes in the intensity of ocean currents. Declining flora and fauna, and declining rare natural species.

SO, HOW DO POPULATION GROWTH AND CLIMATE CHANGE INTERACT TO AFFECT THE WELLBEING OF PEOPLE AND THE ENVIRONMENT?

As population grows and more areas become prone to dry weather, there will be less viable agricultural land per family in Kenya Projected population densities in Kenya

Population, Climate Change, and Agricultural Production About 20% of land in Kenya is suitable for agricultural production. The country’s economy is driven by agriculture, which contributes about 25% of GDP, 60% of the country’s export earnings, and supports 75% of the population. Kenya’s predominantly rain-fed agricultural is highly susceptible to droughts, erratic rainfall, etc. – Most agricultural production focuses on maize (which needs considerable and consistent water supply) – Less than 4% of the total agricultural land is under irrigation.

Population, Climate Change and Deforestation Kenya is among countries with high rates of deforestation in the world – Between 1990 and 2010, Kenya lost 6 percent of its forest cover at an annual rate of 0.3 percent. Key factors: over-dependency on fire wood and charcoal for cooking (90% - rural households); (80% - urban households), human settlements, low deforestation, climate change. Deforestation compounds women’s workloads, as they need to walk longer distances to fetch firewood and water.

Rapid deforestation lead to reduced rainfall limiting the country’s potential to support the growing population Source:

Population, Climate Change, and Water Resources Kenya is among countries that have water scarcity and falling food production. Key factors include recurring droughts, weak capacity for water retention and storage, deforestation leading to reduction in water catchment capacity, population growth. The country also faces recurring flooding, which destroys crops, roads and displaced many people Erratic rainfall and low water levels affects electricity production, economic production, and attractiveness of Kenya for foreign investment.

Population Dynamics and Vulnerability to Climate Change Source:

Summary Rapid population growth has adverse effects on the environment and development in Kenya. Climate change has adverse effects on the environment and economic development. The combined impact of these issues have multiplier effects on the environment, food security and the overall wellbeing of Kenyan. Given the evidence of strong linkages there is need to address the dual challenges simultaneously.

HOW WELL ARE POPULATION POLICIES AND PROGRAMMES IN KENYA ADDRESSING THESE LINKED CHALLENGES?

(1)Policy and programme analyses (2)Key informant interviews The study mapped out current policy and practice, and identified opportunities for optimising integrated responses to population and climate change challenges in Kenya

High level of awareness of key population and climate change challenges in Kenya, and the need to integrate the two issues at policy and programme levels There is limited integration of population dynamics and climate change issues at policy and programme levels, with activities in each area of focus designed, funded and implemented in silos Population and Climate Change issues are linked

WHAT ARE THE CHALLENGES THAT HINDER INTEGRATION OF POPULATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE PROGRAMMES?

Kenya has demonstrated political will to addressing climate change Climate Change Strategy East African Climate Change Action Plan

Kenya’s development blueprint recognises population growth, urbanisation and climate change The Second Medium Term Plan ( ) acknowledges the need to tackle climate change No guidance on multisectoral integration

The National Climate Change Response Strategy (2010) guides implementation of activities The strategy is aligned with Vision 2030 and provides a framework for adaptation and mitigation measures to be integrated in government planning, budgeting, and development objectives. The strategy calls for a joint action plan highlighting a trans-sectoral role for tackling climate change.

Kenya’s Climate Change Policy Framework is currently under development Kenya’s Climate Change Action Plan for implementation of the NCCRS is also underway

Climate Change is not harmonised across environment sector policies All recognize the impact of rapid population growth on environmental degradation They do not specifically indicate how they would contribute to addressing population issues – Family planning is not addressed as a multisectoral issue (NCPD and DRH)

Climate Change is not harmonised across development policies – “Different ministries come up with the same policies, and sometimes you find that they are conflicting. Harmonization is key and that is why we talk of merging. It is important to come up with one policy.” [GoK Official] Climate Change Policy is needed to guide multisectoral development planning

Population policies are more explicit than environment policies in linking the two issues The 2012 Population Policy refers to climate change But there is weak integration of population in other development sectors

Weak integration of sectoral programmes No policy framework to coordinate programmes Weak coordination of climate change programmes, as well as weak integration of climate change within other sectors like population – “There is multiplicity of policies and little integration, and integration has not been harmonized with devolution.” [Donor Agency Official]

NCPD is a semi-autonomous government institution, with a clear mandate on population and development issues Various GoK entities are coordinating climate change activities – “We need to ensure that the secretariat is able to really monitor and support issues on climate change and guide the way forward.” [GoK official] Weak coordination

Multisectoral Coordination of Climate Change Activities in Kenya Ministry of Environment and Mineral Resources – Focal point for national environment matters – Hosts the Climate Change Secretariat National Environment Management Authority (NEMA) – Provides technical coordination via the Climate Change Unit The Prime Minister’s Office – The Climate Change Coordination Unit manages the Inter-Ministerial National Climate Change Steering Committee Climate Change Desk Officer in various ministries District Development Officers (decentralisation)

Allocation of resources to multisectoral responses remains a major challenge Over-dependence on donors for funding of climate change and population work – “When budgeting for climate change you hardly find money that the government has directly prioritized for it.” [GoK Official] Inadequate Funding

Weak technical capacity in programme design, implementation, evaluation, research, knowledge translation and management – “Population pressure introduces what we call micro-climates... We need a better data network for our observations, and a very good communication and dissemination system to create awareness in terms of what exactly people are supposed to do to minimize some of the impacts of climate change disasters.” Weak Technical Capacity

RECOMMENDATIONS

Incorporate population dynamics in all climate change policies and strategies. Mainstream population issues within all development sector policies (including environment and climate change). Incorporate gender issues in climate change policies and adaptation strategies. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS PROGRAMME RECOMMENDATIONS RESOURCE ALLOCATION RECOMMENDATIONS TECHNICAL CAPACITY RECOMMENDATIONS

Strengthen climate change coordination and governance mechanisms. Enhance the design and implementation of programmes that will help Kenyans to adapt to climate change and thus improve food security, and reduce poverty and deforestation. Prioritise meeting women and their partners need for family planning. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS PROGRAMME RECOMMENDATIONS RESOURCE ALLOCATION RECOMMENDATIONS TECHNICAL CAPACITY RECOMMENDATIONS

Secure adequate resources to support the joint implementation of effective programmes to address population dynamics and climate change. Enhance investments in social services to help Kenya tap into a potential demographic dividend POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS PROGRAMME RECOMMENDATIONS RESOURCE ALLOCATION RECOMMENDATIONS TECHNICAL CAPACITY RECOMMENDATIONS

Enhance local technical capacity of governments, and NGOs. Train local researchers and other experts in multidisciplinary approaches, and encourage networking among professionals working in climate change, population dynamics, and other development sectors. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS PROGRAMME RECOMMENDATIONS RESOURCE ALLOCATION RECOMMENDATIONS TECHNICAL CAPACITY RECOMMENDATIONS

Joint Investment in FP/RH and Climate Change a “Triple Win” Joint investment in family planning and climate change strategies can yield the ‘triple win’ of the United Nations (U.N.) sustainable development framework. Reducing fertility rates and slowing population growth would help: 1. Reduce poverty by improving and expanding health, schooling and economic opportunities 2. Protect and manage natural resources for economic and social development 3. Reduce inequality and create greater opportunities for all.

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