On Feeding the 10 Billion PATRICIA BOLING POLITICAL SCIENCE, PURDUE UNIVERSITY SEPTEMBER 24, 2015

Soybeans as a contribution to animal protein

Misgiving # 1 Why do we need to produce more corn and soybeans to feed the 10 billion, if the very things that we produce are contributing to them consuming foods and drinks that are high in calories and low in nutrient value?

What’s causing the world agrifood system to become less resilient? 1.Monocultures and reliance on inputs and GM seeds rather than tending to soil quality and sustainable approaches to agriculture 2.Consolidation of ownership, management and purchasing

Monocultures The tendency to plant a single crop, and just grow that one crop and nothing else, has become much more common. For example, in 1958 Illinois planted 45% of its cropland to corn and soybeans; in 1997, that figure was 86%. The genetic diversity of plants and animals has decreased precipitously. Because plant growers and breeders “have focused on a few traits that become the basis for out global diet,” one scholar estimates that 12 plant species and only five terrestrial animal species provide 70 percent of all human food supply” (Hendrickson, 2015, 425). Monocultures exist under the soil as well. When farmers stop using crop rotation and cover crops to regenerate the fertility of the soil, the microbial characteristics of the soil suffer, and the use of commercial fertilizers hastens that process. So what? The worry is that as unanticipated weather cycles and events occur, and perhaps new pests and weeds, the inattention to sustainable agriculture may serve us very badly and the industrial or scientific fixes may not work any longer.

4-firm Concentration Ratios for selected US agricultural commodities (Hendrickson, 2015) Industry sector Beef slaughter69%79%82% IRP Cargill ConAgra Tyson Excel (Cargill) JBS Beef AmericaFarmland Nat'l BeefNational Beef Turkey slaughter31%42%58% Louis RichJennie-O (Hormel)Butterball (Smithfield/ Goldsboro) SwiftButterball (ConAgra)Jennie-O (Hormel) ConAgraWampler TurkeysCargill NorbestCargillFarbest Foods Wet corn milling74% 87% ADM Cargill Corn Products Int'l Tate and Lyle Cargill CPC Soybean processing61%80%85% ADM Cargill Bunge Ag. ProcessorsAg. Processing

Changes in food retail consolidation in the US 1997: CR 5 = 24%2000: CR 5 = 42%2011: CR 4 = 51% Kroger Co. Wal-Mart Safeway Wal-Mart Kroger American Stores Albertson's Safeway Albertson's Safeway Supervalu Ahold USA

Misgiving #2 The organization of the agrifood system—get big or get out, buy your inputs from and sell your crops to big corporations, be efficient and specialize on one particular crop or raise one kind of animal—is undercutting the adaptability and resilience we need as environmental and climate-related crises loom.

Some questions to talk about Are there ways to feed the 10 billion good food and avoid the bind we’re moving toward of rigidity and lack of resilience? What if we changed the food we grow from corn and soybeans to legumes and millet, and provided that to the 10 billion? How easy would this be to do? Do you know where your food (or the 10 billion’s) comes from? Do you think it matters? Why or why not? Some phrases and keywords to prompt discussion: “get big or get out” CSAs Farmers’ Markets Backyard gardens Slow food

4-firm Concentration Ratios for global input markets (2013 data, from Hendrickson 2015) Seeds (Proprietary Seeds) CR 4--58%. Firms--Monsanto, DuPont, Syngenta and Vilmorin FertilizersCR 4--24%. Firms--Yara, Agrium, The Mosaic Company, PotashCorp ChemicalsCR 4--62%. Firms--Syngenta, Bayer, BASK, Dow AgroSciences