CONFIDENTIAL Research Stay abreast of important economic and market developments and capitalize on investment opportunities with our insightful research and innovative thinking. February 2016
Overview Our Research teams are a leading voice on what matters and widely recognized for the breadth and quality of their work. 1 CONFIDENTIAL Our renowned team of economists, analysts and strategists helps clients understand market trends, stay on top of investment opportunities and generate alpha A rich combination of fundamental, quantitative and technical analysis lets you see the market from different angles to identify important developments at the macro, sector, company and asset-class level to drive timely and profitable investment ideas EconomicsEquity ResearchMacro StrategyPortfolio Strategy & Quantitative Research Technical Analysis Thorough and diligent research Insightful commentary Provocative thinking Extensive client interaction
Economics Benefit from our Economics Group’s long and well-earned reputation for being ahead of the curve. 2 1 Ranked #2 according to the Brendan Wood International 2014 Canadian Equity Research Sales & Trading Performance Report. CONFIDENTIAL The team produces analysis and timely forecasts of trends in the North American economy, the political environment and financial markets Economists are recognized for their insights on critical market issues and the implications for stock values, currencies and interest rates, and are highly ranked by institutional investors in the Canadian financial services industry In-depth analytic publications, conferences, phone calls and one-on-one meetings keep clients up to date on what is happening today ― and likely to happen in the future Extensive analysis available on the Economics website includes: −Economic Flashes −The Week Ahead −Monthly FX Outlook −Economic Insights −Economics Forecast −TSX Earnings Watch −Federal/Provincial Budget Briefs −Employment Quality Index ― Canada −Household Credit Analysis −Consumer Watch ― Canada −The Bankruptcy Report −Metro Monitor −Small Business Economic Activity −Commodities Outlook Avery Shenfeld: TopGun Equity Analyst — Economics 1 and also named most accurate forecaster of Canadian economy
Equity Research See opportunities across the market capitalization spectrum for all key sectors of the economy. 3 1 Greenwich Associates Canadian Equity Investors Study, 2013 – Tied for 3rd for Perceived Quality of Research Coverage (Brendan Wood International, Worldwide Equity Capital Markets Performance – Canadian Equities 2014 Report). CONFIDENTIAL Our Equity Research team covers over 370 companies that represents 94% of the market capitalization of the S&P/TSX Composite It has consistently been recognized as a top research source for its breadth of coverage, industry knowledge and quality of work Insightful reports, complemented by extensive corporate and analyst meetings, help keep clients on top of stock market activity and the outlook for different industries and companies A website devoted to Equity Research offers interactive performance comparison charts, industry composite and commodities tables and powerful search tools CoverageMarket CapitalizationBroad and Deep Analysis Over 35 equity analysts Coverage for more than 370 companies Representing 94% of market capitalization of the S&P/TSX Composite Offering broad and deep analysis across three core verticals Energy, Mining and Financials CIBC is a Greenwich Share Leader in Canadian Equity Research / Advisory Portfolio Managers Vote Share 1 Top Ranked Research Coverage 2
Macro Strategy Gain a broad, cross-asset class perspective on strategic and tactical investment and trade ideas. 4 CONFIDENTIAL Strategists provide topical research focused on fundamentals, valuation and trade ideas across foreign exchange, interest rates, commodities and sovereign and corporate credit: −FX: Underlying themes, issues and trends affecting Asian, Latin American and G10 currencies −Rates: Fundamental, technical and quantitative analysis on both domestic and global rates in support of various executable trade ideas −Commodities: Market views, price forecasts and analysis of global supply / demand fundamentals for the energy sector −LATAM: Factors impacting the sovereign credit and currencies of selected Latin American countries −Government credit: Factors impacting the economic, fiscal and financial performance of Canada at federal, provincial and municipal levels −Corporate credit: Valuation of Canadian credits in the context of global credit markets −Portfolio strategy: “Target Cash Flow Portfolios” providing a set of investible model portfolios, supported by our credit research and available to clients of CIBC Wood Gundy Topical research includes: −Global Positioning Strategies −Focus on Canada −Cross-asset observations −Comprehensive asset-specific research −Investor conference calls −One-on-one investor meetings −Dedicated website for Macro Strategy −Voice of CIBC (media)
Portfolio Strategy & Quantitative Research Help generate alpha with a highly-mathematical and rigorously-tested approach to investment analysis. 5 CONFIDENTIAL Our Portfolio Strategy & Quantitative Research team has a proven track record for outperforming the market Global strategy work sets the background by looking at what’s driving major economies and capital markets around the world Asset mix models and an understanding of economic history are then used to predict critically important factors affecting capital markets Our powerful Scenario Analysis System (SAS) helps illustrate the implications of our asset mix recommendations and the significance of different economic scenarios for your business. This includes first- and second-year returns for seven different investor profiles, including growth, income and growth, capital preservation and global opportunity. Our Global Portfolio System (GPS) facilitates an understanding of the global economy and provides a global context for local stock decision making enabling you to readily model and test different portfolios. GPS provides detailed analysis of 5,000 companies in 50 countries offering nearly instantaneous stock selection that considers approximately 140 different criteria for every stock.
Technical Analysis Identify trending indicators that can help predict price movements with a proprietary model for assessing markets. 6 CONFIDENTIAL Looking at stocks, currencies, commodities, sectors and indices, the central pieces of the team’s work include three biweekly reports: −The TrendSpotting Matrix: Based on the assumption that prices move in trends and trends tend to persist, this capability evaluates 12 key technical factors to create a picture of market action and identify if there is a trending environment underway −Breadth Decomposition Analysis: This work scores all 10 Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) sectors in the TSX and S&P 500 indices to identify sectors that demonstrate collective upside or downside behavior, highlighting thematic characteristics that may be evolving in different sectors −A Closer Look: This provides a deep dive into technical internals of the broader indices for a top-down analysis. It explores metrics that are associated with market peaks and troughs — sentiment, volume, volatility, asset correlation and metric deviation from norm We also go beyond simpler technical methodologies with ratio analysis, pair trading to help identify possible buying and selling situations