Trends in hail and thunderstorm in China over the past 50 years under the changing monsoon climate Qinghong Zhang 1,2, Xiang Ni 1, Fuqing Zhang 2, Mingxin.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
© Crown copyright Met Office Hail Threat Standardisation Gennaro Cappelluti, Paul Field & Will Hand Atmospheric Processes & Parametrizations.
Advertisements

Centre for Atmospheric Sciences Indian Institute of Technology Delhi Hauz Khas, New Delhi – S K Dash Some Evidences of Climate Changes in India.
Association of U.S. tornado counts with the large-scale environment on monthly time-scales Michael K. Tippett 1, Adam H. Sobel 2,3 and Suzana J. Camargo.
Climate change in the Antarctic. Turner et al, Significant warming of the Antarctic Winter Troposphere. Science, vol 311, pp Radiosonde.
Barry D. Keim Louisiana State Climatologist Louisiana State University Hurricane History of the Gulf and East Coast of the U.S.
A Spatial Climatology of Convection in the Northeast U.S. John Murray and Brian A. Colle National Weather Service, WFO New York NY Stony Brook University,
Chukchi/Beaufort Seas Surface Wind Climatology, Variability, and Extremes from Reanalysis Data: Xiangdong Zhang, Jeremy Krieger, Paula Moreira,
Annual- and zonal-mean climate of the tropics (NCEP) Relative humidity [%] Temperature [degC] surface pressure [mb] equatorial trough subtropical high.
Climate Change Impacts in the United States Third National Climate Assessment [Name] [Date] Climate Trends.
Urban impacts on summertime rainfall in Beijing PEI Grand Challenges program and MIRTHE (Mid Infrared Technologies for Health and Environment) Summer 2008.
Downstream weather impacts associated with atmospheric blocking: Linkage between low-frequency variability and weather extremes Marco L. Carrera, R. W.
Climate and Climate Change 17 January How and Why Does Climate Change? Climate changes over a broad range of time scales – Years, decades, centuries,
“what a climate model is, and what uncertainty means” Noah S. Diffenbaugh Department of Environmental Earth System Science and Woods Institute for the.
An analysis of cloud-to-ground (CG) strokes in China during and the spatial distribution of CG with severe thunderstorm wind LAC S Laboratory.
Precipitation Associated with 500 hPa Closed Cyclones Anantha Aiyyer Eyad Atallah Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University at Albany.
Upper-level Mesoscale Disturbances on the Periphery of Closed Anticyclones Thomas J. Galarneau, Jr. and Lance F. Bosart University at Albany, State University.
Li ZHANG, Hong LIAO, and Jianping LI Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Impacts of Asian Summer Monsoon on Seasonal and Interannual.
Robert W. Christopherson Charlie Thomsen Chapter 8 Weather.
Maryland Climate, Past ~100 yrs Max & Min Surface Air Temperature: Observed Trends in Averages and Variability Dr. Konstantin Vinnikov, Acting State Climatologist.
Severe Weather! © The GlobalEd 2 Project Photo credit: Tyrone Turner, National Geographic Homes destroyed by Hurricane Katrina.
The 5th Antarctic Meteorological Observations, Modeling, and Forecasting Workshop. Columbus, Ohio July 12-14, A 20 Year Assessment of the Frequency.
& : Maryland Weather Service Report, Vol. 2, pp & : US Historical Climatology Network. Baltimore WSO.
Warm Season Thunderstorm Patterns Over the New Jersey Area Al Cope Paul Croft National Weather Service Kean University Mount Holly, NJ Union, NJ.
A Spatial Climatology of Convection in the Northeast U.S. John Murray and Brian A. Colle Stony Brook University Northeast Regional Operational Workshop.
Interdecadal Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon and Precipitation By Huijun Wang Institute of Atmospheric Physics
Regional Climate Modeling in the Source Region of Yellow River with complex topography using the RegCM3: Model validation Pinhong Hui, Jianping Tang School.
The case of polar lows Hans von Storch 13 and Matthias Zahn 2 1. Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany. 2. Environmental.
API (Air Pollution Index) Data for PM10 Mass Concentrations Analysis Adapted from Choi et al The weekend effect in climate variables and air pollutants.
Scientific benefits from undertaking data rescue activities: some examples of what can be achieved with long records Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit.
The speaker took this picture on 11 December, 2012 over the ocean near Japan. 2014/07/29 AOGS 11th Annual Meeting in Sapporo.
1 Observed Changes in Heavy Precipitation Events and Extratropical Cyclones David R. Easterling 1, Kenneth E. Kunkel 2, David Kristovitch 3, Scott Applequist.
The trend analysis demonstrated an overall increase in the values of air temperatures as well as an increase in the occurrence of extremely hot days, but.
Characteristics of Extreme Events in Korea: Observations and Projections Won-Tae Kwon Hee-Jeong Baek, Hyo-Shin Lee and Yu-Kyung Hyun National Institute.
New statistical approach for hail storm nowcasting: case study of severe thunderstorm developed on 28 June 2007 over northeast Bulgaria Boryana Markova.
ASSESSMENT OF ALBEDO CHANGES AND THEIR DRIVING FACTORS OVER THE QINGHAI-TIBETAN PLATEAU B. Zhang, L. Lei, Hao Zhang, L. Zhang and Z. Zen WE4.T Geology.
Trends in Iowa Precipitation: Observed and Projected Future Trends Christopher J. Anderson, PhD Scientist, Assistant Director Climate Science Initiative.
Variability of Winter Extreme Flux Events in the Kuroshio Extension and Gulf Stream Regions Xiaohui Ma 1,2, Ping Chang 1,2,3, R. Saravanan 3 1. Department.
Climate Change and Extreme Weather: IPCC Findings by: Yap Kok Seng Malaysian Meteorological Department Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation National.
11th EMS/ 9th ECAM Berlin, Germany September 12–16, 2011 Trends in the frequency of extreme climate events in Latvia as influenced by large-scale atmospheric.
C20C Workshop, ICTP Trieste 2004 The impact of stratospheric ozone depletion and CO 2 on tropical cyclone behaviour in the Australian region Syktus J.
Climate Change Scenarios Development P. GOMBOLUUDEV and P.BATIMA.
The Spatial and Temporal Variability of Nonfreezing Drizzle in the United States and Canada Purpose and Data Addison L. Sears-Collins, Oklahoma Weather.
Monsoon Onset Dates on the Tohono O'odham Nation Josef Marlow Tohono O'odham Community College.
Severe Weather: Tornadoes Harold E. Brooks NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory Norman, Oklahoma
Climate Change: Past, Present, and Future Dr. Cameron Wake Climate Change Research Center Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space (EOS) University.
Seasonal Variation and Test of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau Heating and Its Profile Zhong Shanshan, He Jinhai Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters of.
Regional Climate Group 1 Department of Earth Sciences.
The NTU-GCM'S AMIP Simulation of the Precipitation over Taiwan Area Wen-Shung Kau 1, Yu-Jen Sue 1 and Chih-Hua Tsou 2 1 Department of Atmospheric Sciences.
Precipitation efficiency and its dependence on physical factors A look into the cloud response to climate warming Chung-Hsiung Sui 1 Institute of Hydrological.
The frequency distribution of daily precipitation over the U.S. Emily J. Becker 1, E. Hugo Berbery 1, and R. Wayne Higgins 2 1: Department of Atmospheric.
The Role of Solar Energy (continued)
Changes in the South American Monsoon and potential regional impacts L. Carvalho, C. Jones, B. Bookhagan, D. Lopez-Carr UCSB, USA A.Posadas, R. Quiroz.
Collaboration with NCAR Aug. 15, OutlineOutline 1. SMB in brief 2. The responsibility of SMB in Expo The requirements of SMB 4. The potential.
NAME SWG th Annual NOAA Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop State College, Pennsylvania Oct. 28, 2005.
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007 Extreme Climatic and atmospheric.
PEKING UNIVERSITY Mingxin Li Previous work (a) shows the MHD (annual station averaged hail days) in China and a sharp decrease is significant.
Challenges in Convective Storm Prediction for the Coastal-Urban New York City-Long Island Brian A. Colle 1, Kelly Lombardo 2, John Murray 3, and Harrison.
Intensified reduction in summertime light rainfall over mountains compared with plains in Eastern China Jing Yang Dao-Yi Gong State Key Laboratory of Earth.
Precipitation extremes during Indian summer monsoon Jayashree Revadekar Centre for Climate Change Research Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology PUNE,
Saving lives, changing minds. Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master) Myanmar Climate Change Training Presentation title at-a-glance.
Qinghong Zhang and Mingxin Li
Introduction to the Tropics
The influence of atmospheric circulation on the occurrence of hail in China Li Mingxin Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Peking University,
Severe thunderstorms and climate change
Climatology of coastal low level jets over the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea and the relationship with regional atmospheric circulations Delei Li1, Hans von.
Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration
EAS 6792 Term Project Yufei Zou
WEATHER Unit 1b.
Scott C. Runyon and Lance F. Bosart
Sorin Burcea, Roxana Cică, Roxana Bojariu
Presentation transcript:

Trends in hail and thunderstorm in China over the past 50 years under the changing monsoon climate Qinghong Zhang 1,2, Xiang Ni 1, Fuqing Zhang 2, Mingxin Li 1,2 1 Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Peking University, Beijing , China 2 Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania

Changnon & Changnon ( 2000) Brooks and Dotzek 2008 Tippett et al. (2015) D>20mm Xie et. al Kim and Ni 2015 D>2mm Cao 2008 Kunz et al Trends of hail occurrence Understanding the potential effects of global-scale changes on local- scale severe weather (like hail) is a persistent challenge for research. Berthet et al.2010 Eccel et al 2011 Tuovinen et al. (2009) Schuster et al. 2005

Challenge: the stark mismatch of scale It requires novel research approaches to connect the questions and processes across both weather and climate scales

Possible bridge between hail and climate change? severe convective storm Large scale circulation change 3- 5月 6- 8月 Climate change 3-5月 6-8月 May CAPE VWS PW FLH

Objective What is the trend of convective storm frequency in China? Does the contribution of hail in severe storm day changed? How does the hail intensity changed ? Is the changes of large scale circulation do associated with the changes of severe storm and hail occurrence in China?

Methodology and Data  Datasets  983 surface station observation (weather phenomenon) thunder storm (starting and ending time) hail (starting and ending time) lightning high wind heavy precipitation the maximum diameter of hailstone (start early 1980s)  Datasets  Hail data at 859 surface stations from information center of CMA hail starting and ending time NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (1961 to 2011)

Definition  Hail or thunderstorm event (hail or thunder was record within interval less than 30 min)  Hail or thunderstorm Day (hailstorm or thunderstorm was recorded at one station)  Hail intensity: Maximum hail diameter D stations (the stations with data missing rate greater than 1% are excluded)

Spatial distribution of annual thunderstorm and hail days

Seasonal variation of 5-day annual mean hail day in China Hail seasonal variation are associated with the onset of summer monsoon

Station mean annual thunderstorm Frequency Seasonal and diurnal Variation Trend (%)

Trend of station mean thunderstorm (hail) frequency and Days from 1961 to 2011 Thunderstorm Hail

Possible density of hail intensity

Objective What is the trend of convective storm in the past? Does the contribution of hail in severe storm day changed? How does the hail intensity changed ? Is the changes of large scale circulation do associated with the changes of convective storm and hail occurrence in China?

Trend of 850 hPa circulation in warm season 1961 to 2011 GPH Meridian Wind Qv K index

Trend of large scale circulation in warm season from 1961 to 2011 CAPE CIN VWS PW

Summary-hail frequency The deduction of hail frequency and days were associated with the deduction of thunderstorm days in China from 1961 to 2011.

Summary-hail frequency The deduction of hail frequency and days were associated with the deduction of thunderstorm days in China from 1961 to VWS

Summary-hail intensity Larger hail decreased less than small hail

Further Research Number thunderstorm Aerosol Large scale circulation radiation CCN reginal climate