Economic Development Challenges in the Caribbean* Andrew S Downes Professor of Economics and Director Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social and Economic.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
African Union Commission Economic Report on Africa 2011 Economic Report on Africa 2011 Governing development in Africa – the role of the state in economic.
Advertisements

SOCIAL POLIS Vienna Conference Vienna, May 11-12, 2009 Working Group Session “Urban labour markets and economic development” Building a “Social Polis”
CARICOM Agriculture Donor Conference CROWNE PLAZA, PORT OF SPAIN, TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO, 2 June 2007 CARICOM Agriculture Donor Conference CROWNE PLAZA, PORT.
THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA REPORT st January 2014 Chapter 4 Policies for Accelerating Investment in Africa: National and Regional Aspects.
Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago Energy and the Economy: The Macroeconomic Impact Shelton Nicholls Deputy Governor UWI Conference on the Economy October.
1 September 2, 2011 Secretary Ministry of Economic Affairs ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT POLICY, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT.
TOWARDS A SINGLE ECONOMY AND A SINGLE DEVELOPMENT VISION Norman Girvan.
Icelandic Economy. Icelandic Economy – March 2008 International comparison Iceland is frequently ranked amongst the top 10 economies in the world in multiple.
Reasons to invest in Paraguay UK-Paraguay Trade & Investment Forum Nov German Rojas Irigoyen Minister of Finance - Paraguay.
Prepared for Caribbean Connect Barbados: June 28-30, 2006 Evelyn Wayne, CARICOM Secretariat F LOWS OF INVESTMENT CAPITAL FROM EXTRA-REGIONAL SOURCES.
4 th BIENNIAL INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS BANKING AND FINANCE CONFERENCE.
Building the Resilience of Small States Forum on the Future of the Caribbean 5 – 7 May 2015.
The Dawn of a New Economic Era? Russia Economic Report April 2015 | Edition No. 33.
ROLE OF THE NATIONAL COALITIONS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SERVICES SECTOR Michelle Hustler – Project Manager, Barbados Coalition of Service Industries.
Global Competitiveness Report 2013/14 Suriname. The Global Competitive Report The GCR is produced by the World Economic Forum The report is based on the.
GHANA’S AGENDA FOR SHARED GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT,
Issues in Extra-Regional Migration Elizabeth Thomas-Hope Caribbean Forum on International Migration and Development Georgetown, Guyana 8-9 July 2013.
REGIONAL INTEGRATION AND PRODUCTIVE AND INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT.
How to Improve Export Competitiveness in Mauritius Marilyn Whan-Kan.
Measuring Development
© John Tribe 13 Economic Development and Regeneration.
Essentials for Building a Competitive Services Sector Ramesh Chaitoo Essentials for Building a Competitive Services Sector Ramesh Chaitoo.
The New Global Development Agenda beyond 2015: The Role of the Private Sector in Development Policy Jacqueline Mugo, OGW, MBS 27th Meeting of ACP-EU Economic.
PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE CARIBBEAN: THE ROLE OF THE UNIVERSITY OF THE WEST INDIES* By Andrew S Downes PhD Professor of Economics.
The Caribbean Regional Research and Education Network.
TRADE & INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE CARIBBEAN.
Employment Stories in the English Speaking Caribbean Ralph Henry Kairi Consultants Ltd October 21, 2004.
1 Pushing back the frontiers of poverty and unemployment through accelerated growth Economic Strategy for 2003 Presentation to the Portfolio Committee.
Strategy for Growth and Employment Main Motivation  Significance of growth as the most important enabler of development and poverty reduction  Bangladesh’s.
Doyananda Debnath Phd Date: 04 July, I. About Bangladesh II. Policy Making Process III. Features of Policy Documents IV. Development Planning.
NS4053 Winter Term 2014 Country/Region Indices. Country Indices/Rankings I There are a number of organizations that provide rankings of countries based.
The Trinidad and Tobago Banking System: Some Stylized Facts Ewart S. Williams Governor Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago.
Development No one definition The focus is on improving the human condition in a country Benefits are to accrue to the populace.
Economic growth Chapter 8 4/23/2017 4/23/
GORAN RADMAN Chairman, SenseConsulting Technology and Innovation Competitiveness in Eastern and Southeastern Europe.
October 8 & 9 th, 2008 Conference on the Economy (COTE) University of the West Indies Programme Management Office Ministry of Planning, Housing and the.
1 ENSURING AND SUSTAINING MACRO-ECONOMIC STABILITY 2010 Consultative Group / Annual Partnership Meeting Venue: La Palm Royal Beach Hotel, Accra Date: 23rd.
Deepening Integration in SADC - Macroeconomic Policies and Their Impact South African Country Study 3rd – 6th April 2006 Zambezi Sun Hotel, Livingstone,
Education in the Caribbean: Contributing to Sustainable Development Ryan Burgess Education Specialist
NEGOTIATIONS ON SERVICES NEGOTIATIONS ON SERVICES Commercial Diplomacy Programme &TrainForTrade.
Presented by the Honourable Christine Kangaloo Minister of Science, Technology and Tertiary Education at the 2 nd Meeting of Ministers and High Authorities.
Regional Challenges Latin America and the Caribbean THE WORLD BANK 2007.
VULNERABILITY AND SMALL ISLAND DEVELOPING STATES: VULNERABILITY AND SMALL ISLAND DEVELOPING STATES: CHALLENGE OF BUILDING GREATER RESILIENCE by Albert.
OAS - Caribbean Conference on Horizontal Cooperation in Social Protection Port of Spain September 2008 Karoline Schmid – Social Affairs Officer ECONOMIC.
1 THE SAMOA PATHWAY: ROLE OF HIGHER EDUCATION IN TRANSLATING VISION TO ACTION IN THE CARIBBEAN* Andrew S Downes PhD Professor of Economics and Pro Vice.
Work for Human Development Human Development Report 2015.
Enhancing Skills in the Eastern Caribbean Cynthia Hobbs, Sr. Education Specialist World Bank, November 2007.
NS4540 Winter Term 2015 Country Indices. Country Indices/Rankings I There are a number of organizations that provide rankings of countries based on factors.
Introduction to the UK Economy. What are the key objectives of macroeconomic policy? Price Stability (CPI Inflation of 2%) Growth of Real GDP (National.
Growth, Development + Macro Issues in _____________ Key Macro Data Latest annualised GDP Growth (%) GDP or GNI per capita (US $, PPP) Inflation (%) Unemployment.
HIGH LEVEL ADVOCACY FORUM ON STATISTICS : The Urgency of Statistics and the Global Crisis Enabling Development in the Caribbean Community PORT-OF SPAIN,
The Caribbean’s Regional Research and Education Network Presented by Eriko Porto On behalf of Ken Sylvester, CEO of CKLN.
ACHIEVING COMPETITIVENESS, INCLUSIVE GROWTH AND SUSTAINABILITY IN REAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA: THE TOUGH CHOICES IN AN ERA OF CHANGE Presented By:
Profile of the Mexican Economy Key Macro Data Latest annual GDP Growth (%) 2.6% GDP or GNI per capita (US $, PPP) $18k Inflation (%)2.7% Unemployment rate.
UNCLASSIFIED Lift the living standards and wellbeing of all Victorians by sustainably growing Victoria’s economy and employment and by working with the.
Latin America and Caribbean Region
The future of the capital markets in Guyana
Economic Growth and Development in Zambia
The Future of Extractive Industries in Latin America and the Caribbean
NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY OF THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN UNTIL 2030
REFLECTED IN JAMAICA’S ENERGY POLICY
ENHANCING PRODUCTIVITY AND GROWTH IN THE CARIBBEAN
Latin America and the Caribbean
IFC in the Caribbean Presentation on Small States December 11, 2008.
Introduction to the UK Economy
Private sector development and SDGs in Albania
Comparison of South Korea & Taiwan
IMPLEMENTATION PROGRAMME OF SNA 2008 (Dominica)
NS4453 Spring Term 2017 WEF Country Stages/Rankings
KOREA Econoic survey 김태용 한요셉 심준현
Presentation transcript:

Economic Development Challenges in the Caribbean* Andrew S Downes Professor of Economics and Director Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social and Economic Studies University of the West Indies, Cave Hill Campus, Barbados July 2009 *A Regional Forum for IDB’s 50 th Anniversary, Port au Prince, Haiti

Structure of Presentation Two Decades of Economic Performance Development Strategies Constraints to Caribbean Development Future Direction

1. Two Decades of Economic Performance Economic development is a long-term dynamic process While being cognisant of short-run issues, development goals should be the focus Focus on the long-term socio-economic welfare of the people Consideration of institutions, policies and programs, resources, management and leadership etc

Growth and Production Performance –Slow down in economic growth over the past 3 decades GDP (%) GDP per capita (%) (Source: World Bank) - decline in the contribution of agriculture and the rise of the services sector – output and employment

CountryAgricultureIndustriesServices Antigua Barbados Belize Grenada Jamaica St Lucia T & T

–Tourism has been a main contributor to output and its growth – Antigua, Bahamas, Barbados, St Lucia –Petroleum and associated products have dominated Trinidad and Tobago –Agriculture is still important to Belize, Dominica, Guyana –Economies still dependent on one-two major areas of economic activity which are export-oriented –Regression analysis of economic growth of Caribbean points to the statistical (and economic) significance of (i) exports and (ii) physical capital in the growth process

Employment and Unemployment –Employment distribution mirrors that of the sectoral distribution of GDP – service workers (tourism, distribution, government) dominate in almost all countries. Significant number in elementary occupations (including the informal sector) –Unemployment rates have been historically high (over 10 percent of the labour force). Decline in the past decade to single digit (e.g., 4.9% in 2008 for T&T)

–Bahamas: 14.8% in 1992 to 8.7% in 2008 –Barbados: 24.3% in 1993 to 6.7% in 2007 –Belize: 14.3% in 1998 to 8.2% in 2008 –Jamaica: 15.9% in 1992 to 10.0% in 2007 –T & T: 19.6% in 1992 to 4.9% in 2008 –Youth unemployment (females and in recent years, male) has been a chronic problem

Poverty and Income Inequality –Relatively high rates of poverty in the region OECS: 18.4% (Antigua 2006) to 39% (Dominica 2002) of the population Bahamas: 9.3% (2001) Jamaica: 24.4% (1993) to 12.9% (2005) T & T: 24% (1997) to 16.7% (2005) –Significant degree of income inequality: Gini coefficients over the period varied between 0.23 (BVI in 2002) to 0.57 (Bahamas in 2001)

Human Development –Caribbean countries have middle to high levels of human development (using the HDI) by the UNDP –In 2005, the HDI values ranged from (Jamaica) to (Barbados) or a ranking of 25 to 101 from 177 countries –Generally high levels of life expectancy at birth (generally over 70 years); high level of primary school enrollment and literacy (over 90% in most cases)

Economic Freedom –The Heritage Foundation’s Index of Economic Freedom ranks Caribbean high: moderately free to mostly free –Barbados (ranked 22 nd in 2008 with a value of 71.5 – mostly free) to Dominica (ranked 70 th in 2006 with a value of 62.6 – moderately free) out of 177 countries Competitiveness –World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index 2008/9:

CountryRankScoreStage of Development Barbados Transition from 2 to 3 Jamaica Stage 2 T & T Transition from 2 to 3 Suriname Stage 2 Guyana Stage 1

CountryRankScoreStage of Development Singapore 55.53Stage 3 Malta524.31Stage 3 Mauritius574.25Stage 2 Costa Rica594.23Stage 2

–Stage 1(factor-driven economies), Stage 2 (efficiency -driven economies), Stage 3 (Innovation-driven economies) Doing Business –The World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business ranked the Caribbean countries in 2009 from St Lucia (34 th ) to Guyana (105 th ) out of 181 countries –Singapore (1), Malta (n/a), Mauritius (24), Costa Rica (117)

Summary of Economic Development Performance –Lower than average and declining growth rates of output –Relatively high levels of unemployment, poverty and income inequality –Relatively good performance with respect to HDI, economic freedom and competitiveness but –Much more needed to reach the level of flexibility and competitiveness especially of Singapore, Malta and, to some extent, Mauritius

2. Development Strategies Historically move to develop Caribbean in the post-independence era. Adoption of development plans Attempts to diversify economies away from dependence on agriculture (e.g., sugar and bananas) Strategies adopted include: –Agricultural diversification – alternative crops –Industrial (manufacturing) development – first import substitution/replacement, then export promotion

based on foreign direct investment –Services development (especially tourism and more recently, professional, financial and cultural services) –Mining (bauxite, oil/natural gas) –Economic integration (free trade area to single market/economy) –Nationalisation/socialist organisation in some countries (issue of role of State in national development)

After a period of macroeconomic stabilisation policies (1970s to 1990s), there has been a return to strategic development planning with a focus on becoming a “developed country” by some specified period Strategic Development Plans –T&T: Vision 2020 –Barbados: National Strategic Plan –Jamaica: Vision 2030 –OECS: Development Strategy and Charter

T & T Vision 2020 –Development priorities are: Developing innovative people Investing in sound infrastructure and environment Enabling competitive businesses Governing effectively Nurturing a caring society –Diversification program with Non-energy export sector (food, beverage, chemicals, metal processing, leisure, marine, IT and electronics, printing)

–Oil and gas production still central to T&T development (i.e., energy-related services development) Barbados’ Strategic Plan –Strategic goals are: Unleashing the spirit of the nation New governance for new times Building social capital Strengthening the physical infrastructure and preserving the environment Enabling Barbados’ prosperity and competitiveness Branding Barbados globally

–Focus on export of services such as tourism and international business along with cultural and health services Jamaica’s Vision 2030 –National goals are: Jamaicans are empowered to achieve their fullest potential Jamaican society is secure, cohesive and just Jamaica’s economy is prosperous Jamaica has a healthy national environment

–Development of internationally competitive industries in: Agriculture Manufacturing Mining/quarrying (bauxite) Creative industries Sports ICT Services (financial, business, tourism)

Common Elements in the Plans –Internationally competitive industries (old and new) –HRD as a central element –Use of new developments in technology –Services sector development (new services and tourism) –Sustainable development (physical environment) –Social capital development –Improved governance structure

3. Constraints on Caribbean Development Problem of macroeconomic stability (especially debt accumulation, inflation, twin deficits) Inadequate HRD in some critical areas (universal primary education, some universal secondary, but low level of tertiary compared with competitors) Low levels of Research and Development/Innovation (little linkage between University research and industry)

Inadequate venture capital ( capital market development) Large focus on the ‘safe’ local market Relatively low levels of productivity – human and non- human Small pocket of dynamism/entrepreneurship in the private sector (not enough to propel economy into international market)-Pan Caribbean companies Too heavy reliance on government incentives, crowding- in effects, etc

Inability to capitalize on trade agreements- meeting international standards/regulations Vulnerability to external shocks – natural and economic – which can derail development Little/slow attempt at regional development/integration – agriculture, tourism marketing, industrial production Migration of skilled professionals Growth of the informal sector Limits of the infrastructural development (ports, telecom etc )

4Future Direction The economic transformation of the Caribbean requires the adoption of a strategic development planning framework (vision, objectives/goals/strategies, policies/programs, implementation framework, monitoring and evaluation process) Planning Framework: -national and regional levels; - social, economic, environmental etc aspects

Identification of strategic product clusters based on existing/potential resources and markets (product space concept) For Caribbean: services linked with agriculture, manufacturing and energy (some examples exist with the regional conglomerates). Belize, Guyana, Dominica – forward links with agriculture

Given the importance of services in the region – special emphasis on services sector development (tourism, business/professional, ICT, cultural/entertainment, financial) linked to other sectors –Institutional/network strengthening –Export development strategy formation –Standards setting – quality standards –Certification/accreditation –Establishment of strategic alliances/partnering

Focus on improving national productivity and performance to enhance economic growth and competitiveness – HRD, investment in physical capital and infrastructure, promotion of social capital, work design, management/leadership/ supervision Taking advantage of trading agreements (capacity building to remove supply constraints, information sharing, improved negotiation skills to obtain better terms, etc)

Enhancing the institutional framework – identification of the role of the government versus private sector in the development process Strategic use of embassies, high commissions, consulates to supply market information and networking

Make financial resources available to obtain resources to enhance product growth and development Support regional approach to development – pace is too slow and uneven (e.g., Pan Caribbean firms) Provide macroeconomic stability – debt management, inflation, exchange rate depreciation, fiscal and BOP deficits