What research results are policy relevant? Annette Freibauer.

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Presentation transcript:

What research results are policy relevant? Annette Freibauer

Main Questions How will the C sink evolve (vulnerability)? –Projections of natural C sink –Projections of management effects –Projections of disturbance regimes What is the uncertainty of C sink measures due to interannual variability? What is the potential for climate change mitigation?

Vulnerability

C loss potential higher than C sink potential Magnitude of vulnerability [PgC] highly unlikely unlikely likely very likely Permafrost Wetlands & Peatlands Terrestrial Biomass Soil Carbon Gruber et al. SCOPE

The future of the natural C sink Cramer et al., 2001 GCB

Windthrow, e.g. Tatra

Fate of C & N climate change land use mangement Peter Fleischer Disturbance

Interannual variability

Interannual variability in National Inventory Reports of Annex-I

Land use and Management

Projection of forest area in 2020 Global forest area (FAO) projected by continuous net trends Deforestation Afforestation Afforestation area exceeds deforestation Ergebnisse

30 Projection of net CO 2 flux from change in forest area Average C stocks in biomass Cumulative afforestation area since 1990 with year rotation Deforestation emissions systematically underestimated (net area change) Source Sink Land use change turns into net sink

EU-23 Forest management projections Source Sink Ergebnisse Forest sector: Biomass, soil, products North America: now old forests China, EU, Russia: now young forests CO 2 Flux [Tg CO 2 yr -1 ] Time

Mitigation in practice

Climate effects in spruce forestry C stocks in soil, biomass & products C stocks + substitution Mean C benefits over 150 years (t C/ha) time Years C stocks + cumulative C substitution, tC/ha Spruce for products Spruce for energy Spruce for sequestration Spruce for products Spruce for energy Spruce for sequestration Benefits by recycling Freibauer et al. subm.

C benefits with „leakage“ and downstream effects Freibauer et al. subm.