Department of Defense Voluntary Protection Programs Center of Excellence Development, Validation, Implementation and Enhancement for a Voluntary Protection Programs Center of Excellence (VPP CX) Capability for the Department of Defense Department of Defense Voluntary Protection Programs Center of Excellence VPPPA 28 th Annual National Conference Trend Analysis Using Trend Results for Safety and Health Decision Making Lori Schroth Safety & Occupational Health Professional August 22,

Department of Defense Voluntary Protection Programs Center of Excellence Development, Validation, Implementation and Enhancement for a Voluntary Protection Programs Center of Excellence (VPP CX) Capability for the Department of Defense Welcome

Objectives Describe trend analysis Compare lagging and leading indicators State need for trending Outline trends needed for VPP Describe how to address performance issues over time 3

Housekeeping Review safety evacuation information Request attendees to shut off electronic devices 4

Department of Defense Voluntary Protection Programs Center of Excellence Development, Validation, Implementation and Enhancement for a Voluntary Protection Programs Center of Excellence (VPP CX) Capability for the Department of Defense An Introduction to Trend Analysis

What is Trend Analysis? Practice of collecting information Displaying information in an easy to understand format Analyzing data to spot a pattern, or trend, in the data –Prices trending upward –Slips, Trips and Falls trending downward 6

What is Trend Analysis Used for? Trend analysis looks at data to: –Examine history of safety and health data –Define/measure normal, desirable, and undesirable performance –Identify recurring conditions that impact results –Inform leaders/stakeholders about concerning performance in the workplace 7

What is Trend Analysis Used for? Trend analysis is also used to: –Determine where to focus your attention Where is action likely to generate significant impact? –Assess effectiveness of actions taken Have results changed in response to what we did? 8

W.E. Deming noted: –Identifying “visual figures” alone is one of seven deadly diseases of American management –Managers should not “manage by the numbers” –Managers should “seek profound knowledge,” or wisdom –Wisdom is foundation of true improvement 9 It’s What You Do With the Data

Department of Defense Voluntary Protection Programs Center of Excellence Development, Validation, Implementation and Enhancement for a Voluntary Protection Programs Center of Excellence (VPP CX) Capability for the Department of Defense What Are the Right Things to Measure?

Trailing (or Lagging) Indicators After-the-fact measures of performance –OSHA recordable injuries/illnesses –Lost time injuries/illnesses –Lost workdays –Direct costs of injuries/illnesses –Reports of symptoms –First aid cases –Types of injuries/illnesses –Time of shift/time of day –Age/seniority of injured/ill employees 11

Trailing (or Lagging) Indicators BEWARE… –Just trending trailing indicators can be dangerous –Do not only focus on the output (injury/illness events) and the numbers –Do not focus on narrow time frames in which data was collected –Ensure to be persistent at thoroughly understanding the critical factors driving these numbers! 12

The Heinrich Triangle H. W. Heinrich, Industrial Accident Prevention, 3rd edition,

Leading Indicators Predictors of future safety performance Measures conditions related to safety performance and processes intended to improve safety performance Examples: –Measuring airborne concentrations at lead work areas can be a predictor of performance in complying with OSHA PEL and success in preventing employee illness due to lead exposure. –Measuring risk of open safety deficiencies in workplaces can be a predictor of performance in preventing mishaps. 14

Leading Indicators Near-miss incidents and risks Ratio of reported near-misses to reported incidents Inspection results Safety training competency scores Safety training attendance, percent complete Safety training quality evaluations Corrective action tracking metrics 15

Leading Indicators Immediate contributing factors Root causes of management system deficiencies Critical behavior observation percentages Safety team progress vs. established goals Completion/effectiveness of emergency drills Promotional program metrics Participation in safety teams Safety perception survey results 16

Department of Defense Voluntary Protection Programs Center of Excellence Development, Validation, Implementation and Enhancement for a Voluntary Protection Programs Center of Excellence (VPP CX) Capability for the Department of Defense The Need for Trending

Do We Really Need to Trend? Internal standpoint –Trend whatever makes sense, based on site needs VPP standpoint –Traditional focus: A reactive look at past injuries/illnesses –New focus: A proactive look at preventing hazards BOTH FOCUSES ARE NEEDED FOR VPP! 18

Department of Defense Voluntary Protection Programs Center of Excellence Development, Validation, Implementation and Enhancement for a Voluntary Protection Programs Center of Excellence (VPP CX) Capability for the Department of Defense Trend Analysis & VPP

Trend Analysis Program A Trending Analysis Program is a VPP requirement The person(s) in charge of the program should know: –What data to trend –Who is responsible for data –When to submit data –Who receives trended data –What is done with trended data 20

Minimum Trending Requirements At a minimum, data needs to be trended from: –OSHA 300 logs –Employee reports of hazards –Accident investigation data –Hazards identified during inspections –Near-misses Highly recommended –First aid cases 21

Department of Defense Voluntary Protection Programs Center of Excellence Development, Validation, Implementation and Enhancement for a Voluntary Protection Programs Center of Excellence (VPP CX) Capability for the Department of Defense Trend Analysis Example

Basic Process Identify data you want to trend Identify who will generate data Generate data Crunch data Analyze data to identify consistent findings Identify/evaluate options to address causes/reasons Recommend actions and implement them Monitor progress and report results 23

Tip #1 24

Tip #2 25

Tip #3 26

Department of Defense Voluntary Protection Programs Center of Excellence Development, Validation, Implementation and Enhancement for a Voluntary Protection Programs Center of Excellence (VPP CX) Capability for the Department of Defense Performance Trends Over Time

Measure trends over time in: –Specific area that was acted upon –Broader performance area where injury and illness rates need improved 28 Did our actions make a difference? Are we getting better?

Watch Out for Pitfalls When does a “trend” exist? Normal statistical variation is not a trend Overreaction to system noise can cause enormous amount of wasted energy 29

Using Basic Statistics 30

Using Basic Statistics 31

Using Basic Statistics 32

What’s Wrong with this Graph? 33

Department of Defense Voluntary Protection Programs Center of Excellence Development, Validation, Implementation and Enhancement for a Voluntary Protection Programs Center of Excellence (VPP CX) Capability for the Department of Defense Conclusion

Numbers (data and trends) = Knowledge Understand reasons behind numbers Crunch data to find right target areas Address underlying reasons rather than creating shallow solutions Choose actions thoughtfully Be smart and patient Do not overreact to short-term bumps Give adequate time to rethink recommendations if results do not improve 35

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