SC11: HPC Trends and Market Update Addison Snell, addison@Intersect360.com SC11: HPC Trends and Market Update Actionable Market Intelligence for High Performance Computing November 2011

Intersect360 Research HPC market sizing, forecast, and technology trend analysis Quarterly surveys of worldwide end users since 2007 Research reports published monthly on average Feature articles in partner publications Custom research, consulting, special studies Weekly podcast with Michael Feldman, HPCwire “Analyst Crossfire” at HPCC, ISC, SC conferences

HPC Total Market Model and Forecast HPC Total Market Forecast ($000) 22% growth 2009 - 2010 Sales cycles come back in Post-recession growth is high in 2011-12 except U.S. gov’t & acad. Servers are the largest component, but storage fastest growing Source: Intersect360 Research, 2011

HPTC vs. HPBC Definitions High Performance Technical Computing (HPTC) Applications in science and engineering Top markets: academia, government labs, defense, manufacturing, bio/life science, oil/gas exploration High Performance Business Computing (HPBC) Applications include trading, pricing, risk management, logistics, fraud detection, online games, analytics, … Top markets: financial services, ultrascale internet, online games, retail, entertainment

HPTC and HPBC Vertical Markets HPTC Total Market (2010 rev., 70%) by Vertical HPBC Total Market (2010 rev., 30%) by Vertical 25% Acad. 40% Comm. 35% Govt. Financial analytics and DCC&D reclassified and restated as HPBC HPBC is >95% commercial (exceptions: Fannie Mae, Federal Reserve Bank, …) Financial services is only slightly smaller than total manufacturing

Different Software Approaches Bio CFD Structures (CAE) Oil

HPC Total Market by Region 2010 HPC Total Market Revenue by Geography Source: Intersect360 Research, 2011 North America was 54% in 2007; continuing to fall as percentage U.S. government and academic markets restricted by current budgetary climate in Congress Asia-Pacific has highest growth rate; EMEA has highest growth volume

2010 HPC Server Revenue Share IBM has been consistent #1 HP took over #2 with strong 2010 Sun falling off SGI, Cray easy to track Large percent of systems in our surveys identified as “in-house” or “generic” Notable “others”: Appro, Bull, Fujitsu, Penguin, Sugon, Supermicro, T-Platforms, …

10 Important HPC Trends in 2011 Accelerator adoption continues: About two-thirds of users at least testing them (was 20% one year ago) NVIDIA has 90% of current accelerator usage but will now face off against Intel MIC Storage is fastest-growing product sector Storage consolidation intensifies competition Lustre roadmap stabilized for HPC InfiniBand struggles to grow further as an HPTC system interconnect; needs new usage or markets

10 Important HPC Trends in 2011 Biggest finance application is risk management Facilities continues to increase share of budget Memory usage growing with multi-core Programming services spending buoyed by multi-core, accelerators, cloud Cloud is only 3% of spending; mostly private cloud Windows share flattened after years of growth Big Data represents a major opportunity for HPC vendors to grow

Big Data Market Opportunities “Big Data” is a rapidly growing set of applications touching large datacenters, SMBs, and research Fueled by creation and availability of data Organizations seek to bridge the gap between having better data and making better decisions Application areas include: enterprise analytics, research analytics, real-time analytics, complex event processing, data mining, visualization … Growth in these application areas creates a market opportunity for providers of HPC technologies

Intersect360 Research at SC11 BOFs/Panels: Big Data webcast (Monday) and BOF (Tuesday) BOF: Archiving in the Cloud (Wednesday) Panel: The Path to Exascale (Wednesday) Sponsored receptions: Intersect360 Research reception (Monday afternoon) Beowulf Bash (Monday night) SC11 Analyst Crossfire (Friday 1:30-3:00) Vendors: Pete Ungaro (Cray), Don Becker (NVIDIA) Users: Earl Dodd (RMSC), Keith Gray (BP)

Actionable Market Intelligence for High Productivity Computing