By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. October 19 th, 2015 The Pit and the Pendulum On Behalf of Virginia Association of Community Banks.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Economic Outlook 21 st Annual Southern California Visitor Industry Outlook Conference Jack Kyser Sr. VP & Founding Economist, The Kyser Center for Economic.

Advertisements

Economic Update by Doug Duncan Chief Economist Fannie Mae American Land Title Association October 17, 2008 Kaua’i, Hawaii.

Emerging Growth: Mid- Decade Economic Trends University of North Texas Center for Economic Development and Research December 2014.

Measuring the US Economy Economic Indicators. Understanding the Lingo Annualized Rates Example: GDP Q3 (Final) = $11,814.9B (5.5%) Q2: GDP = $2,

Presentation Prepared for: Washington Association of Money Managers Washington, D.C., December 3, Economic Outlook: Growth, the Awe of Productivity,

DataPost GDP Measuring the Economy Date last updated: February 19, 2015 Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Education Group.

Richmond Metro Area Economic Overview Retail Merchants Association Ann Battle Macheras November 11, 2011.

Tracking the Recovery December 12, Real Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics.

Economic Update Economic Development Council of Seattle-King County Board Meeting February 27, 2014 Spencer Cohen Senior Economic Analyst.

October 27, 2010 The 2 nd Year of the Recovery: Performance and Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public.

Emerging Growth: Mid- Decade Economic Trends University of North Texas Center for Economic Development and Research April 2015.

MODULE 0. Real Estate Markets & The Economy: An Empirical View.

1 The Great Recession and its Lasting Impacts Mark A. Berreth, Regional Economist, LMEA Sept. 28, 2011.

Prince William Chamber of Commerce October 13, 2011 What Kind of Recovery Has It Been and the Outlook for the Economy’s Future Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight.

Back to the Future Anirban Basu, Chief Economist, ABC October 27, 2010.

BOE Advisory Council July 25, 2013 The Economic Outlook Joe Fitz Chief of Research and Statistics Board of Equalization.

©2014 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary & Confidential Slow and Steady Wins the Race: Housing Market Outlook David Stiff, Principal Economist,

Testimony for Hearings on FY 2010 Revenues Yolanda K. Kodrzycki Senior Economist and Policy Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Presented to: Massachusetts.

December 11, 2007 Michael Morris, P.E., Director of Transportation North Central Texas Council.

WASHINGTON STATEECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST COUNCIL Economic & Revenue Outlook Presented to Washington State National Institute of Government Procurement.

Subtitle text can go here Economic Minute November 13, 2014 Director Seidman Research Institute.

The Great Economic Unraveling of : Impacts on the U.S. and Texas Bernard L. Weinstein, Ph.D. Cox School of Business Southern Methodist University.

By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. November 17, 2008 Daytime Drama On Behalf of the Maryland Association of Realtors.

By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. December 4, 2007 It was the Best of Times, Now What? On Behalf of FEI.

By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. January 12 th, 2015 The Pit and the Pendulum On Behalf of MAR Board of Directors.

By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. September 13th, 2013 Going Up for the Rebound On Behalf of MD-DC Utilities Association.

Fairfax Committee of 100 February 24, 2015 The Northern Virginia and Washington Area Regional Economic Outlook David E. Versel, AICP Senior Research Associate.

“In the Heart of the Storm” Cerritos College 11 th Annual Advisory Committee Member Recognition Breakfast Jack Kyser Sr. VP & Founding Economist, The Kyser.

By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. April 26, 2012 The Dog Ate My Home On Behalf of Commonwealth Business Travel Group.

Using BEA`s Gross State Product (GSP) Estimates George K. Downey Understanding Regional Economic Data for Policy and Planning—Dallas, Texas September 8,

By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. October 17 th, 2014 Back to the Future Part II On Behalf of The Arizona Builders’ Alliance.

 What is inflation? --a general upward movement in price of goods and services in an economy  What is deflation? --a general downward movement in.

Briefing on the Regional Economy Rae D. Rosen Senior Economist Federal Reserve Bank of New York March 12, 2003.

December 4, 2008 The U.S., Washington & Northern Virginia Economies: Current Performance and Near Term Outlook John McClain, AICP Senior Fellow and Deputy.

Photos courtesy of USDA Maria Akers Assistant Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Omaha Branch September 22, 2008 Economic.

The Economy and External Environment 10th Annual Georgia Idea Institute August 19, 2015 Bill Hampel, Chief Policy Officer Credit Union National Association.

U.S. Economy based on FRED April 2013 Thank you, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Economic Outlook: Beyond the Recession ESICA Spring Conference The Tides Inn – Irvington, VA May 6, 2010 Ann Battle Macheras Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

DBIA-MAR Luncheon February 19, 2013 The U.S. and Washington Area Economies’ Current Economic Performance and Near-Term Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D.

Using Data to Track Local Housing Markets APDU Annual Conference Washington, DC September 24, 2008 Frank E. Nothaft Chief Economist.

U.S. Economy based on FRED *Some data not updated due to gov’t shutdown in Oct. October 25, 2013 Thank you, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Essential Standard 1.00 Understand the role of business in the global economy. 1.

Briefing on the Regional Economy Rae D. Rosen Senior Economist Federal Reserve Bank of New York September 5, 2002.

GDP-by-Metropolitan Area Statistics Accelerated Release of Data for 2008 Sharon D. Panek Association of Public Data Users Online December 10,

1 1Q | 2015 As of December 31, 2014 Guide to the Markets ®

U.S. Housing Outlook Presented By: Stanley F. Duobinis, Ph.D. President Crystal Ball Economics, Inc.

Washington Area Compensation and Benefits Association February 21, 2013 Uncertain Economic Times: Impacts on Local DC, MD and VA Employers and Employees.

© 2015, Fiatech By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. April 15 th, 2015 The Pit and the Pendulum On Behalf of Fiatech.

SAME/ACEC Conference June 14, 2012 The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University.

Tennessee and U.S. Economic Update and Outlook Matthew N. Murray, Ph.D. October 2015.

Kelly Cunningham Economist, Senior Fellow Economic Outlook Post-recession economic recovery January 21, 2015.

Economic Outlook December 2014 Economic Policy Division.

Economic and Commercial Real Estate Outlook By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist National Association of REALTORS ® May 14, 2015 Washington, D.C.

Sectors Academy: Colorado’s Economic and Demographic Environment Alexandra Hall, Director Dee Funkhouser, Manager Labor Market Information Colorado Department.

Creating a Forecast Charles Steindel January 21, 2010 All views expressed are those of the author only and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve.

April 14, 2016 Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook Terry L. Clower, Ph.D., Director Mark C. White, Ph.D., Deputy Director Center for Regional.

Randy Pullen Wages, The Economy & Law, Oh My!! October 2015.

Ann Battle Macheras Vice President, Regional Research and Economic Education Research Department National and Virginia Economic Update Mount Vernon-Lee.

DataPost GDP Measuring the Economy Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Education Group Date last updated: September 8, 2014.

By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. August 18 th, 2016 The Economist Who Loved Me On Behalf of Associated General Contractors.

National Economic Conditions

Economic Trends.

2017 Economic Outlook IREM Los Angeles

Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook

Economic Policy Division

BETTER SOFT DATA WITH TRUMP, BUT HARDER DATA is lagging

The Current Performance and Near-Term Outlook for

for Nevada and Southern Nevada

Economic Trends.

Anirban Basu, Chief Economist, ABC

Presentation transcript:

By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. October 19 th, 2015 The Pit and the Pendulum On Behalf of Virginia Association of Community Banks

Dawn of the Dead

Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas 2015 Projected* *Real GDP. Notes: 1. Data for Lithuania are included in the euro area aggregates but were excluded in the April 2015 World Economic Outlook. Source: International Monetary Fund, October 2015 WEO Database

What Lies Beneath Source: BEA, BLS, S&P Case-Shiller, Yahoo! Finance *Through July 2015

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Median Weekly Earnings, Full-Time U.S. Workers* 2000Q1 through 2015Q2 *SA, Constant dollars (adjusted to CPI-U) Wage and salary workers ages 16+

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Cost Index 12-Month Percent Change (NSA) All Civilian workers, all industries, NSA

Source: Moody’s Economy Recession Watch as of July 2015

Gross Domestic Product 1990Q2 through 2015Q2* Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis *Final Estimate

Contributions to GDP Growth by Component 2014Q2 – 2015Q2* Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis *Final Estimate

Invasion of the Body Snatchers

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics September 2015: +142K Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS January 2002 through September 2015

National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector September 2014 v. September 2015 All told 2,752K Jobs gained Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Virginia Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (SA) August 2014 v. August 2015 Absolute Change VA Total: +41.1K; +1.1% US Total (SA): +2,860K; +2.1% *According to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) series VA gained 18,140 jobs between August 2014 and August Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Northern VA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) August 2014 v. August 2015 Absolute Change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Northern VA Total (NSA): +31.4K; +2.3% DC MSA Total (NSA): +41.1K; +1.1% US Total (SA): +2,860K; +2.1%

Richmond Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) August 2014 v. August 2015 Absolute Change Richmond Total: -1.1K; -0.2% VA Total: +41.1K; +1.1% US Total (SA): +2,860K; +2.1% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) August 2014 v. August 2015 Absolute Change Virginia Beach Total: +5.0K; +0.7% VA Total: +41.1K; +1.1% US Total (SA): +2,860K; +2.1% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: Aug: 2.1% Sept: 2.0% Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) August 2014 v. August 2015 Percent Change R ANK S TATE %R ANK S TATE %R ANK S TATE % 1UTAH4.014MARYLAND2.034MISSOURI1.1 2OREGON3.519COLORADO1.934OHIO1.1 3FLORIDA3.319DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA1.934VIRGINIA1.1 3NEVADA3.319TENNESSEE1.938MISSISSIPPI1.0 5WASHINGTON3.219TEXAS1.938PENNSYLVANIA1.0 6CALIFORNIA3.023KENTUCKY1.840NEBRASKA0.9 6SOUTH CAROLINA3.024IOWA1.740NEW JERSEY0.9 8IDAHO2.924NEW HAMPSHIRE1.742MONTANA0.8 9MASSACHUSETTS2.624WISCONSIN1.743ILLINOIS0.7 9NORTH CAROLINA2.627SOUTH DAKOTA1.544LOUISIANA0.4 11INDIANA2.528ALABAMA1.445NEW MEXICO0.3 12ARKANSAS2.328NEW YORK1.445OKLAHOMA0.3 13MICHIGAN2.228VERMONT1.447KANSAS0.1 14ARIZONA2.031DELAWARE1.347WYOMING0.1 14CONNECTICUT2.032MINNESOTA1.249ALASKA GEORGIA2.032RHODE ISLAND1.250NORTH DAKOTA HAWAII2.034MAINE1.151WEST VIRGINIA-2.6 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. Unemployment Rate (Aug & Sept): 5.1% Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) August 2015 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics R ANK S TATE %R ANK S TATE %R ANK S TATE % 1NEBRASKA2.818INDIANA4.633RHODE ISLAND5.6 2NORTH DAKOTA2.918KANSAS4.636NEW JERSEY5.7 3HAWAII3.518OKLAHOMA4.636TENNESSEE5.7 4NEW HAMPSHIRE3.621MASSACHUSETTS4.738GEORGIA5.9 4VERMONT3.621OHIO4.738NORTH CAROLINA5.9 6IOWA3.723DELAWARE4.940LOUISIANA6.0 6SOUTH DAKOTA3.724MARYLAND5.140SOUTH CAROLINA6.0 6UTAH3.724MICHIGAN5.142CALIFORNIA6.1 9MINNESOTA4.026KENTUCKY5.242OREGON6.1 9WYOMING4.026NEW YORK5.244ALABAMA6.2 11MONTANA4.128CONNECTICUT5.345ARIZONA6.3 11TEXAS4.128FLORIDA5.345MISSISSIPPI6.3 13COLORADO4.228WASHINGTON5.347ALASKA6.6 13IDAHO4.231ARKANSAS5.448NEW MEXICO6.7 15MAINE4.531PENNSYLVANIA5.449DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA6.8 15VIRGINIA4.533ILLINOIS5.649NEVADA6.8 15WISCONSIN4.533MISSOURI5.651WEST VIRGINIA7.6

Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA) August 2015 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics RankMSAUR RankMSAUR 1 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD Metropolitan Statistical Area Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH Metropolitan NECTA Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD- WV Metropolitan Statistical Area Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ- DE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area San Diego-Carlsbad, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical Area (1) Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area Area boundaries do not reflect official OMB definitions.

Nightmare on Elm Street

15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates October 1995 through October 2015* Source: Freddie Mac *Week ending 10/15/2015

U.S. New Home Sales January 1999 through August 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

U.S. Housing Starts August 1999 through August 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

U.S. Homeownership

Source: U.S. Census Bureau U.S. Private New Multifamily Construction August 1993 through August 2015

U.S. Housing Building Permits August 1999 through August 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau August 2015: 1 Unit: 699K 5 Units or more: 440K

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros July 2015, 12-Month Percentage Change Source: Standard & Poor’s

Psycho

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Treasury Bond Yield Curve All Civilian workers, all industries, NSA

Sales Growth by Type of Business September 2014 v. September 2015* Source: U.S. Census Bureau *September 2015 advanced estimate

National Vehicle Sales January 2004 through September 2015 (SAAR) Source: Autodata Corp. September 2015: 18.2M

Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index August 2007 through August 2015 Source: Conference Board

Tell-Tale Heart We are now in the mid-cycle stage of recovery – please enjoy it; It’s all about interest rates – the four segments driving the U.S. economy presently are 1) consumer spending; 2) auto sales and production; 3) residential construction & 4) nonresidential construction – all are interest rate sensitive; The Federal Reserve has successfully managed to put itself in a no win situation – only imperfect policies to choose from; The world is not perfect - black swan threats remain: (1) Iran (2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe (4) contagion (5) cyber (6) EMP; Market is nervous, but perhaps for the wrong reasons; and More people benefit from lower oil prices than are hurt – more contractors and developers are helped than hurt – frankly, low oil prices just don’t make me that nervous (but something else does!)

Thank You Follow us on You can always reach me at Please look for updates of information at Also, if you need us in a hurry, we are at ( SAGE) Please contact us when you require economic research & policy analysis.