Hybrid threads: overcoming ambiguity, building resilience Colonel Aivar Jaeski EST Defence Forces NATO StratCom COE Deputy director 10 September 2015

2 Question Information activities that make the ground fertile for hostile objectives and instruments to counter it?

3 Targeting right audiences...

4 The full implementation of the Islamic State's will and realization of the apocalyptic prophecy ( the Dabiq battle ) ISLAMIC STATE NARRATIVES/MESSAGING DAESH Information Campaign SUPPORT UNITE FRIGHTEN INFORM The foundation of the Islamic state. Deterrence of an external threat to the organization. Defeat external coalition to fulfil apocalyptic prophecy. Defeat internal adversaries (Shia, Yazidis etc).

5 The re establishment of Russian Empire USSR RUS NARRATIVES/MESSAGING RUS Information Campaign UNDERMINE AND CONFUSE UNITE FRIGHTEN INFORM AND INFLUENCE 2001 Promote RUS for the West/World 2007 Protect RUS interest with all means ? Moldova Belorussia Kazakhstan 3B ? 2014 Gerassimov doctrine Crimea, Ukraine Arctic

6 What to do? Recommendations. 1/6 POLITICAL LEVEL 1.Do not be a part of their information campaign – choose words and actions carefully. 2.Revise policies what are delaying effective recognition of the threads and fast decision making processes. 3.Support free speech in areas and countries where its needed. 4.Unite people/organization/countries if fight against adversaries. 5.Conduct strategic communication! What for us is obvious for some is new.

7 What to do? Recommendations. 2/6 MILITARY LEVEL 1.Invest capabilities and deterrence. a)Situational awareness b)Conscription 2.Study information environment and rise situational awareness. 3.Share, coordinate and cooperate. Allow others to use your capabilities for situational awareness and analysis in order to avoid duplication. 4.Prepare for the worst case scenario, exercise! Not only CRO but also conventional conflict.

8 What to do? Recommendations. 3/6 ECONOMIC LEVEL 1.Implement economical sanctions against adversaries and advertise them globally. Soviet Union collapsed due to economical competition. 2.Become independent from energy sources and raw materials coming from adversaries. 3.Do not conduct business or trade with adversaries. 4.Close your financial system for adversaries.

9 What to do? Recommendations. 4/6 SOCIAL LEVEL 1.Educate population, learn from history. The newly discovered is often forgotten old. 2.Build social awareness on adversaries propaganda campaign and report every offensive message and messages which are leading to radicalization in Social Media. 3.Refine and protect audiences who can be vulnerable to adversaries Propaganda Campaign.

10 What to do? Recommendations. 5/6 INFRASTRUCTURE 1.Invest into supporting structures. a)Communication capabilities b)Situational awareness capabilities c)Education facilities 2.Deterrence infrastructures a)Military bases b)Training facilities 3.Alternative infrastructures for energy supplies a)LNG terminal

11 What to do? Recommendations. 6/6 INFORMATION 1.Care about media quality. Educate reporters to be truthful and able to recognize the propaganda. 2.Maintain close cooperation with Social Media corporations in order to remove extremism from Social Media platform. 3.Reveal lies, care about truth. Use the legal tools and be proactive, cooperate. 4.Find balance between reactive and proactive media. With new communication platforms (social media), where news and ideas are exchanged much faster, the lies are also spread much quicker.

Questions?