ECONOMIC RESILIENCE PAUL A. LEWIN. CONCEPT OF RESILIENCE Resilience: a systems capacity to resist and recover from shock and maintain growth path or community.

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Presentation transcript:

ECONOMIC RESILIENCE PAUL A. LEWIN

CONCEPT OF RESILIENCE Resilience: a systems capacity to resist and recover from shock and maintain growth path or community goals  Closely related to stability  Static resistance to change vs. a process of maintaining desired trajectories  Relative measure  More or less resilient relative to a reference point

TWO WAYS OF RESILIENCE Hazard rate of a county to experience a downturn Probability of a county to recover from a downturn

RECESSION OUTCOMES

WHAT UNIT TO MEASURE RESILIENCE IN? What to measure? Employment Population Emp/Pop ratio Personal Income Per Capita Personal Income Average Wage Regional GDP What we tried Personal Income Per Capita Personal Income Average Wage Regional GDP

DOWNTURN & RECOVERY

THE GREAT RECESSION DECEMBER 2007-JUNE 2009

RECESSION 2005/06 -GDP Sick States Health of States: GDP Growth

RECESSION 2006/07 -GDP Sick States Health of States: GDP Growth

RECESSION 2007/08 -GDP Sick States Health of States: GDP Growth

RECESSION 2008/09 -GDP Sick States Health of States: GDP Growth

RECESSION 2009/10 -GDP Sick StatesHealth of States: GDP Growth

RECESSION 2010/11 -GDP Sick States Health of States: GDP Growth

RECESSION 2011/12 -GDP Sick States Health of States: GDP Growth

RECESSION 2012/13 -GDP Sick States Health of States: GDP Growth

DURATION OF THE RECESSION (YRS.)

PROBABILITY OF RECESSION

CAPITAL FRAMEWORK

COX PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS MODEL Hazard rate for the jth subject h(t|x j )=h 0 (t) exp(x j β x ) where: t is a nongegative random variable denoting the time to a failure event, x j is a vector of multiple predictors, and β x is a vector of regression coefficients. h 0 (t) baseline hazard

SURVIVAL FUNCTION: INCOME TimeBeg. TotalFailNet Lost Survivor FunctionStd. Error[95% Conf. Int.]

SURVIVOR FUNCTION- S(t)

CUMULATIVE HAZARD - H(t)

HAZARD FUNCTION – h(t)

METRO VS NONMETRO

EDUCATION OF PERSON 25+ No High School DiplomaBA’s degree or higher

RURAL VS. URBAN

B.A. DEGREE OR HIGHER Education of Workers

NO HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA Education of Workers

LABOR FORCE

POPULATION 65 YRS. AND OVER

AVERAGE WAGE

AGRICULTURE

HIGH TECH MANUFACTURING

PROPERTY VALUES

THE MODEL Y=AK a (uhL) 1-a Where:  Y = Regional output  A = Technological change  K = Capital  u = Proportion of total labor time spent working  h = Stock of human capital  L = Labor supply

PROBABILITY OF RECOVERY

SURVIVAL FUNCTION: INCOME TimeBeg. TotalFailNet Lost Survivor FunctionStd. Error[95% Conf. Int.]