Vision 2050 The new agenda for business Title of the event Place & date

Summary Overview of the Vision 2050 project Part 1: Business-as-usual outlook to 2050 Part 2: The Vision for 2050 Part 3: The pathway to 2050 Part 4: Business opportunities Conclusion: Urgent action is needed!

Overview of the Vision 2050 project

About Vision 2050 The vision concept and the 2050 timeframe provide a clear and feasible goal for… o Identifying the gap between today and 2050 o Developing a pathway and areas of action o Clarifying the business perspective o Quantifying market potential o Agreeing on action points and next steps

A platform for dialogue – not a blueprint Is not… a prescriptive plan or a blueprint an exhaustive and detailed picture with a complete set of answers a binding set of commitments and promises a universal perspective Is… a platform for dialogue, for asking questions a positive and attractive vision of a world in 2050 and the role of business in helping us to get there

Three key questions What does a sustainable world look like? How can we realize it? What are the roles business can play in ensuring more rapid progress toward that world?

A collaborative effort involving 29 companies

A global business dialogue

The different steps of the Vision 2050 project Business-as- usual outlook to 2050 Vision 2050 Pathway to 2050 Opportunities

Business-as-usual Outlook to 2050 “Humanity has largely had an explosive relationship with our planet; we can, and should, aim to make this a symbiotic one.” Michael Mack, Syngenta International AG

An exploitative relationship with our planet “Humanity has largely had an exploitative relationship with our planet; we can, and should, aim to make this a symbiotic one.” Michael Mack, Syngenta International AG

Growth and degradation GrowthDegradation

Growth: The world population is increasingly urban Global population by type of area and by region – Source: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, 2008

Growth: The world population is increasingly urban Between now and 2050 the global population is expected to increase from 6.9 billion to more than 9 billion, with 98% of this growth happening in cities and in the developing and emerging world

Growth: Global economic power is shifting Top 10 economies by GDP in 2050 Source: Goldman Sachs, BRICs and Beyond, 2007

Growth: Global economic power is shifting Most of the economic growth will happen in developing or emerging economies

Growth: The global middle class is rapidly expanding Population in low- and middle-income countries earning US$ 4,000-17,000 per capita (purchasing power parity) Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects, 2007

Growth: The global middle class is rapidly expanding About 800 million people will join the middle class in low and middle income countries

Degradation: Greenhouse gas emissions keep rising GHG emissions by regions Source: OECD, Environmental Outlook to 2030, 2008

Degradation: Greenhouse gas emissions keep rising GHG are projected to grow by a further 52% to 2050, resulting in an increase in global temperature in the range of ° C, leading to increased heat waves, droughts, storms and floods, resulting in severe damage to key infrastructure and crops

Degradation: Environmental degradation jeopardizes people’s quality of life People living in areas of water stress by level of stress Source: OECD, Environmental Outlook to 2030, 2008

Degradation: Environmental degradation jeopardizes people’s quality of life Over the past half century 15 of the 24 ecosystem services have been degraded according to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Degradation: The world could be running out of some resources Global supply forecasts according to the implied ultimate recoverable resources of conventional oil, date of peak production and the post-peak aggregate decline rate Source: UKERC, The Global Oil Depletion Report, 2009

Degradation: The world could be running out of some resources Oil production will peak and decrease

Meeting human demands within the ecological limits of the planet Meeting the dual goals of sustainability High human development and low ecological impact Source: © Global Footprint Network (2009). Data from Global Footprint Network National Footprint Accounts, 2009 Edition; UNDP Human Development Report, 2009

The Vision

A vision that leads to a sustainable world “Vision 2050 lays out the challenges, pathway and options that business can use to create an opportunistic strategy, both regionally and globally, that will lead to a sustainable world.” Mohammad A. Zaidi, Alcoa

Nine billion people living well, within the limits of the planet Diversity and interdependence A different economic reality Multi-partner governance In markets: Innovating and deploying solutions Dealing with climate change An evolved workplace and evolved employers

Pathway to 2050

To stay on-tack for a sustainable future “The radical changes highlighted in Vision 2050 demand a different perspective from business leaders, requiring them to rethink how they operate to stay on-track for a sustainable future.” Samuel A. DiPiazza, PricewaterhouseCoopers

TODAY The pathway to Vision 2050 To a sustainable world in 2050 From business-as-usual

TODAY The pathway to Vision 2050 To a sustainable world in 2050 From business-as-usual

2050 TODAY The pathway to Vision 2050 To a sustainable world in 2050 From business-as-usual

2050 TODAY The pathway to Vision 2050 To a sustainable world in 2050 From business-as-usual

2050 TODAY The pathway to Vision 2050 To a sustainable world in 2050 From business-as-usual

2050 TODAY The pathway to Vision 2050 To a sustainable world in 2050 From business-as-usual

TODAY The pathway to Vision 2050 To a sustainable world in 2050 From business-as-usual

2050 TODAY The pathway to Vision 2050 To a sustainable world in 2050 From business-as-usual

People’s values Vision for 2050 “One World – People and Planet” lifestyles Turbulent teens Understanding and encouraging change through cooperation Transformation time Sustainable living becomes mainstream Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Measures of Well-being, 2006 (from GGDC, CSLS, GSS/Eurobarometer) Income, economic well-being and happiness in the USA (Index: 1980=100) Happiness does not completely depend on GDP

Human development Vision for 2050 Basic needs of all are met Turbulent teens Building trust, entrepreneurialism, inclusiveness Transformation time Ecosystems and enterprises help create value Source: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, 2008 Life expectancy by region – People are living longer

Economy Vision for 2050 True value, true costs, true profits Turbulent teens Redefining progress Transformation time True values help drive inclusive markets Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Measures of Well-being, 2006 What GDP does and does not measure Reconsidering success and progress

Agriculture Vision for 2050 Enough food, water and biofuels through a new Green Revolution Turbulent teens Cultivating knowledge- intensive agriculture Transformation time Growth in global trade, crop yield and carbon management Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark, Realising the Potential of Africa’s Youth, 2009 (FAOSTAT) Cereal yield by region – Africa’s yield growth has lagged behind other regions

Forests Vision for 2050 Recovery and regeneration Turbulent teens Carbon incentives drive progress Transformation time Growing momentum for forest protection and efficient production Source: FAO, State of the World’s Forests 2009, 2009 Consumption of industrial roundwood by region – Increasing consumption of industrial roundwood

Energy and power Vision for 2050 Secure and sufficient supply of low-carbon Turbulent teens Tilting and leveling the playing field for energy Transformation time Greenhouse gas emissions peak and decline Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, © OECD/IEA 2008 Average annual power generation – capacity additions – Huge capacity additions needed to deliver the new energy mix

Energy and power Vision for 2050 Secure and sufficient supply of low-carbon Turbulent teens Tilting and leveling the playing field for energy Transformation time Greenhouse gas emissions peak and decline Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2009, © OECD/IEA 2009 World abatement of energy-related CO2 emissions in the 450 scenario A new energy mix to reduce CO 2 emissions

Buildings Vision for 2050 Close to zero net energy buildings Turbulent teens Turning the market toward energy efficiency Transformation time Smarter buildings, wiser users Source: WBCSD, Energy Efficiency in Buildings, 2008 Players and practices in the building market System integration is key to achieving energy efficiency in buildings

Mobility Vision for 2050 Universal access to safe and low-impact mobility Turbulent teens A holistic approach improves overall transport Transformation time Towards alternative drivetrains and fuels

Materials Vision for 2050 Not a particle of waste Turbulent teens Doing more with less Transformation time Closing the loop Source: WBCSD An alternative material life cycle Eliminating waste by closing the material loop

The risks to achieving Vision 2050 Risks in the elements of the pathway People’s values: Can we all agree? Economy: Swimming against the tide of mainstream economics Agriculture: Politics, water shortages could uproot the Green Revolution Forests: Is it too late already? Energy: Progress may be victim to power struggles Buildings: In a bad market incentives could fall Mobility: Will not become sustainable without a systemic approach Materials: Recycling can be expensive Wild cards that could take the world off the Vision 2050 track New understanding of how the Earth works A World of new ideological blocs, failing states or resources war Disagreement on valuing the environment Unintended consequences of new technologies Extended economic recessions or economic depression Natural disasters

Economic estimates: Considerable opportunities Source: PwC estimates drawing on data from IEA, OECD and the World Bank Illustrative estimates of the global order of magnitude of potential additional sustainability related business opportunities in key sectors in 2050

Ecological estimates: Getting to one planet by the end of the 2050s Vision 2050 ecological footprint against business-as-usual How many Earths do we use? Source: Global Footprint Network and WBCSD Vision 2050, 2010

Ecological estimates: The Vision 2050 ecological footprint assumptions Vision 2050 ecological footprint against business-as-usual Lowering the ecological footprint and improving biocapacity Source: Global Footprint Network and WBCSD Vision 2050, 2010

Opportunities

Business domains for the next decade – Opportunities and overlaps

Building & transforming… a. Cities b. Infrastructure c. Livelihoods & lifestyles Helping change happen Improving biocapacity & managing ecosystems Business domains for the next decade – Opportunities and overlaps

Building & transforming cities: The development of cities presents significant opportunities Investment requirements for urban infrastructure up to 2030 Source: Booz Allen Hamilton, Strategy+Business, n°46, 2007 (from Booz Allen Hamilton, Global Infrastructure Partners, World Energy Outlook, OECD, Boeing, Drewry Shipping Consultants, U.S. Department of Transportation)

Building & transforming cities: The development of cities presents significant opportunities Estimates suggest that by 2030 US$ 40 trillion will need to be invested in urban infrastructure worlwide

Four categories of cities with different attributes and prospects Brown (e.g. London, Seoul) Green (e.g. Masdar, Dongtang) Red (e.g. Mumbai, Soweto) Blue (e.g. Dhaka, New Orleans)

Building & transforming infrastructure Energy infrastructure Water infrastructure Waste management infrastructure Transportation infrastructure

Energy infrastructure: ICT will play a key role in the transition to a low-carbon economy ICT-enabled abatement out of the total business-as-usual emissions in 2020 Source: Climate Group, Smart 2020, 2008

Water infrastructure: A great variety of solutions will be needed Demand for water will outstrip supply – Action is needed to plug the gap Base-case demand, supply and corresponding gaps for certain regions Source: McKinsey/Water Resources Group, Charting our water future, 2009

Waste management infrastructure: Excess inputs and outputs will be redeployed/reused Metals and materials will increasingly be mined from products in use Outlook for different sources of aluminum – Source: Hydro Aluminium, Aluminium for a Viable Society, 2004

Transportation infrastructure: Building new infrastructure and vehicles, developing innovative technologies Source: European Telecommunications Standards Institute ( Intelligent transportation systems (ITS)

Building & transforming livelihoods and lifestyles Education Health Products and services for aging populations Making sustainable living easier Co-creating value in webs

Education: Education is linked to income generation and wealth creation Correlation between GDP per capita and secondary education net enrolment rate (NER) – 2007 Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, 2009; UNESCO Institute for Statistics, 2009

Education: Investing in educating women Providing girls with an extra year of schooling increases their wages by 10-20%

Health Increased access to better healthcare and prevention will have positive effects on the economy and businesses

Products and services for aging populations The world is aging The world population by age cohort – Source: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, 2008

Products and services for aging populations By 2020 people aged 65 and above will account for about one-fifth of the total global population Each month around 1.9 million people in the world will join the ranks of the over 65s

Improving biocapacity & managing ecosystems Improving biocapacity Protecting and restoring nature Natural literacy and partnerships

Improving biocapacity Investment enables DescriptionImpactGeographyType of investment IrrigationRaises productivity in certain regions Regional, globalTechnology, manufacturing FertilizerRaises productivity in certain regions Regional, globalTechnology, manufacturing MachineryEnables more efficient farmingLocalEngineering, manufacturing CommercializationRaises productivity in certain regions GlobalLogistics, manufacturing InfrastructureMajor challenges to agricultural expansion, especially in emerging economies GlobalGovernments, engineering Land expansionIncreases acreage for productionGlobalPrivate lands, public lands Biotech cropsCrop protection, drought resistance, disease resistance, lower water and fertilizer input Choice by regionBiotech, agronomic Investment enablers DescriptionImpactGeographyType of investment Education and practicesAdoption of technology and management LocalNecessary for smaller farmers PolicySignificant impact on agricultureGlobalNecessary for smaller farmers

Protecting and restoring nature Potential growth of some ecosystem markets (US$ billion) Source: Forest Trends and the Ecosystem Marketplace, PES: Market Profiles, 2008

Helping change happen Financing, transparency and insurance Building and managing complex coalitions

Financing, transparency and insurance Low penetration of microfinance points to pools of untapped customers Breakdown of access to microfinance and the number of poorest families by region Source: The Microcredit Summit Campaign, State of the Microcredit Summit Campaign Report, 2009

Financing, transparency and insurance Protecting lives, livelihoods and assets through micro insurance Covered lives by product and region Source: Allianz/The Microinsurance Centre,

Building and managing complex coalitions Building complex coalitions for social and economic development Source: Accenture, Development Collaboration, None of our Business? 2009

Conclusion and way forward

Sustainability is a key driver “Sustainability will become a key driver for all our investment decisions.” Idar Kreutzer, Storebrand ASA

Urgent action is needed Complex systems will provide the foundation Business cannot do it alone The journey begins now…