Automating e-Learning: The Future of Higher Education Professor J C Taylor Vice-President (Global Learning Services) The University of Southern Queensland Australia

Joseph Schumpeter (1934) predicted that every 50 years or so, technological revolutions would cause "gales of creative destruction” in which old industries would be swept away and replaced by new ones.

Technological Changes  Steam Power s to the 1840s  The Railways s to the 1890s  Electric Power s to the 1930s  The Motor Car s to the 1980s  Information Technology s to ?

Pace of Change 1. Radio: 50 million users in 38 years 2. Television: 50 million users in 13 years 3. The Internet: 50 million users in 5 years Current prediction: One billion users by the year 2003

Internet Access at Home  Australia50%  France22%  New Zealand51%  Sweden61%  UK46%  USA60% % With Internet Access at Home Source: A C Nielsen, June 2000

e-Readiness Rankings: Leaders 1USA8.73 2UK8.10 3Canada8.09 4Australia8.29 5Norway8.07 6Sweden7.98 7Singapore7.87 8Finland7.83 9Denmark Netherlands Switzerland Germany Hong Kong7.45 Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit eBusiness Forum, May 2001 e-Readiness ranking Country e-Readiness score

e-Readiness Rankings: Contenders 14Ireland France (tie)Austria (tie)Taiwan Japan Belgium New Zealand South Korea Italy Israel Spain Portugal6.21 Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit eBusiness Forum, May 2001 e-Readiness ranking Country e-Readiness score

e-Readiness Rankings: Followers 26Greece Czech Republic Hungary Chile Poland Argentina Slovakia Malaysia Mexico South Africa Brazil4.64 e-Readiness ranking Country e-Readiness score Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit eBusiness Forum, May 2001

Followers e-Readiness Rankings: Followers 37Turkey Colombia Philippines Egypt / Peru Russia Sri Lanka Saudi Arabia India Thailand Venezuela3.62 e-Readiness ranking Country e-Readiness score Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit eBusiness Forum, May 2001

e-Readiness Rankings: Laggards 47Bulgaria China Ecuador / Iran Romania / Ukraine Algeria / Indonesia Nigeria Kazakhstan Vietnam Azerbaijan Pakistan2.66 Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit eBusiness Forum, May 2001 e-Readiness ranking Country e-Readiness score

A formula based on the following factors:  Connectivity (30%)  Business environment (20%)  E-Commerce consumer & business adoption (20%)  Legal & regulatory environment (15%)  Supporting e-Services (10%)  Social & cultural infrastructure (5%) Source: The EIU E-Readiness Rankings

Prediction: 'The death of distance as a determinant of the cost of communications will probably be the single most important economic force shaping society in the first half of the 21st century'. Cairncross (1997)

Underestimating Change  In the 1940s the Chairman of IBM predicted that the world market for computers would be approximately five.  In 1977, the CEO of Digital could not comprehend why anyone should need a personal computer.

Western Union Internal Memo, “This telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us”. Getting it Wrong

Education must lay the foundation for the success of the global economy.

The transition from the Industrial to the Information Age was encapsulated by Dolence and Norris (1995), who argued that to survive organisations would need to change from rigid, formula driven entities to organisations that were “fast, flexible and fluid”. Fast, Flexible and Fluid

Trying to change a university is like trying to move a graveyard --- it is extremely difficult and you don’t get much internal support. Organisational Inertia

Why should universities change? Increasing competition on a global scale. Organisational Challenge

Increasing Competition Unext (Business education only)  London School of Economics and Political Science  University of Chicago  Carnegie Mellon University  Columbia University  Stanford University

Increasing Competition Cambridge University’s business school has joined forces with FT Knowledge, part of the global communications group Pearson plc, to offer this new degree from September The Cambridge e-MBA

791 years ago Cambridge University passed a rule requiring all students to reside in the town of Cambridge, England. Last year that rule was revoked. The 800 year-old rulebook had to be altered to make way for the university’s first Internet-enabled program, the global e-MBA. Fast, Flexible and Fluid?

Increasing Competition  offers more than 1,000 online courses and has enrolled over 12,000 students. UCLA’s OnlineLearning.net  offers 1,000 American Airlines frequent flyer points when you enrol in an online course.

Book publishing may again become a cottage industry:  Charles Dickens sold his novels, chapter by chapter, in his own magazine, “Household Words”.  Stephen King recently offered his new 16,000 word ghost story, “Riding the Bullet”, for exclusive sale via the Internet at US$2.50 per copy.  Readers were able to download the text onto their computers or e-books.  King sold 400,000 copies during the first day.

The Big Picture  Change is the only constant.  Growth is the only certainty.

Future Projections  A recent IBM report forecasts a threefold (US$4.5 trillion) jump in global education expenditure during the next 13 years. (Source: Richard Gluyas, New Nabs e-School Deal 22 April 2000).  The World Bank expects the number of higher education students will more than double from 70 million to 160 million by 2025.

Will USQ survive? Will your institution survive? The Global Lifelong Learning Economy

 All students21,063  External15,799*  Percentage External 75% *includes currently enrolled off-shore students 3,981 Enrolled Students USQ 2001

USQ’s Off-Shore Students 2001  Singapore 1,165  Malaysia 943  China 340  South Africa 199  Pacific Islands 114  Zimbabwe 93  United Arab Emirates 76  Canada 73  Total, including students from 60 other countries 3,981

Five Generations of Distance Education Technology  The Correspondence Model  The Multimedia Model  The Telelearning Model  The Flexible Learning Model  The Intelligent Flexible Learning Model

HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES Yes Yes Yes Yes No FLEXIBILITY Time Place Pace INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO THE CORRESPONDENCE MODEL THE CORRESPONDENCE MODEL Print First Generation No

HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES Yes Yes Yes Yes No FLEXIBILITY Time Place Pace Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO THE MULTIMEDIA MODEL Print Audiotape Videotape Computer-based learning (eg CML/CAL) Interactive video Print Audiotape Videotape Computer-based learning (eg CML/CAL) Interactive video Second Generation No

Variable costs tend to increase or decrease directly (often linearly) with fluctuations in the volume of activity. In traditional distance education delivery, the distribution of packages of self-instructional materials (printed study guides, audiotapes, videotapes, etc) is a variable cost, which varies in direct proportion to the number of students enrolled.

HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES No No No No Yes FLEXIBILITY Time Place Pace No No No Yes Yes INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO THE TELELEARNING MODEL Audio-teleconferencing Videoconferencing Audiographic communication Broadcast TV/Radio and Audio-teleconferencing Audio-teleconferencing Videoconferencing Audiographic communication Broadcast TV/Radio and Audio-teleconferencing Third Generation No

THE FLEXIBLE LEARNING MODEL Interactive multimedia (IMM) Internet-based access to WWW resources Computer mediated communication (CMC). Interactive multimedia (IMM) Internet-based access to WWW resources Computer mediated communication (CMC). HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes FLEXIBILITY Time Place Pace Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO Yes No Fourth Generation

HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes FLEXIBILITY Time Place Pace Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO THE INTELLIGENT FLEXIBLE LEARNING MODEL THE INTELLIGENT FLEXIBLE LEARNING MODEL Interactive multimedia Internet-based access to WWW resources CMC, using automated response systems Campus portal access to institutional processes & resources Interactive multimedia Internet-based access to WWW resources CMC, using automated response systems Campus portal access to institutional processes & resources Fifth Generation Yes

XML (eXtensible Markup Language) RENDITIONS: STYLE SHEET: CONTENT REPOSITORY: INPUT: Print Web CD DVD XSLXSLXSLXSLXSLXSLXSLXSL XML DTD (Document Type Definition) XML Editor

USQOnline demonstration…….

“The reflective and explicit nature of the written word is a disciplined and rigorous form of thinking and communicating …… it allows time for reflection and, thereby, facilitates learners making connections amongst ideas and constructing coherent knowledge structures”. Garrison (1997)

Incoming “new” question from student Previous Questions Previous Questions Reusable Learning Objects Database Previous Answers Previous Answers “Immediate” feedback to student NO YES New Answer Search / Match Trigger

As the intelligent databases become more comprehensive, the institutional variable costs for the provision of effective student support will tend towards zero. 5 th Generation

In effect, fifth generation distance provides students with better quality tuition and more effective pedagogical and administrative support services at lower cost. 5th Generation

“Any new technology environment eventually creates a totally new human environment”. “Any new technology environment eventually creates a totally new human environment”. Marshall McLuhan The e-Revolution