+ The Magic of the Multiplier Demonstrate understanding of concepts: Calculate aggregate changes in GDP based from tax and spending multipliers.

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Presentation transcript:

+ The Magic of the Multiplier Demonstrate understanding of concepts: Calculate aggregate changes in GDP based from tax and spending multipliers

+ ECONO-ISLAND

+ MULTIPLIER EFFECT

+ THE MULTIPLIER Δ Y=M× Δ S Looking to see how a change in spending will impact aggregate output Assuming no taxation, foreign market interaction, or simultaneous spending changes Example: US gov’t decides to spend $100B on new high-speed rail system 1 1 − MPC Example: MPS =.60 Δ GDP Real = ? × $100B = total change in real GDP The Multiplier formally represents the ratio of total change in GDP to the initial change in spending, thus: M = ΔYΔSΔYΔS

+ APC & APS vs. MPC & MPS You already know about MPC & MPS… APC & APS: average propensities to consume & save Ratios of total spending/consumption or saving to disposable income APC = APS = C DI S DI *These #s can be greater than 1!

+ TAX MULTIPLIER Taxation makes the multiplier work in reverse…there’s money leaving the circular flow that households will no longer have the opportunity to spend Disposable income is decreasing, ultimately Aggregate output decreases when taxes are increased, and vice-versa Formula: TM = *Note: If there is a tax cut, then the multiplier will be positive…more money in the economy (greater DI) − MPC MPS

+ TAX MULTIPLIER and GDP All we do is calculate how our consumption will changed based on the new tax level (please pay careful attention to whether the tax rate is increasing or decreasing) Example: Let's say that we are experiencing a recession and the government decreases taxes by $25 billion. Let's also assume that the MPC equals.75. By how much will GDP increase? Solution: Because the MPC equals.75, the regular (spending) multiplier equals 4, and the tax multiplier equals -3. The spending multiplier = 1 / (1 minus.75) = 1 /.25 = 4. The tax multiplier equals 4 minus 1 with a negative sign: -(4 - 1) = -3. To get the increase in GDP, we multiply the multiplier by the decrease in taxes: Change in GDP = -3 x -$25 billion = +$75 billion.

+ THE KING’S MULTIPLIER TEST “The King took the treatise and had it printed for every islander. He then ordered the old professor to make up a series of questions to see if the subjects understood the multiplier.” Get with a partner, take out one cell phone per group, and get ready to stake your place on Econoland Island!

+ SAMPLE PROBLEMS Choose 1 to complete: 1. Assume US citizens spend 90¢ for every $ they earn. Further, assume that the real interest rate (r%) decreases, causing a $50 B increase in gross private investment. Calculate the effect of this $50 B increase on GDP. 2. Assume Germany raises taxes by €200 B. Further, assume Germans save 25% of the change in their disposable income. Calculate the effect of this €200 tax increase on GDP. 3. Assume the Japanese spend 4/5 of their disposable income. Further, assume the Japanese gov’t increases spending by ¥50 T and, in order to maintain a balanced budget, simultaneously increases taxes ¥50 T. Calculate the two changes effects on GDP.

+ ANSWERS #1

+ ANSWERS #2

+ ANSWERS #3