13/12/2006 Trends in migration in the region Jon Carling, Head of NERIP 13 May 2008 NERIP CONFERENCE

13/12/2006 The North East’s economic objectives have generated questions around the benefits of migration… Talent North East Steering Group established 2007  Is migration a good thing for the economy?  Can migrant workers help to fill skills gaps?  What are the implications for the region of the emerging ‘points-based’ migration scheme?

13/12/2006 The North East’s population was in decline for several years until 2002….

13/12/2006 Much of that increase is reflected in increased national insurance registrations

13/12/2006 International Migration has mainly been into the cities and larger towns… (Newcastle City Council)

13/12/2006 But even migration into Newcastle has not been as high as that into other major English cities… (Newcastle City Council)

13/12/2006 Newcastle accommodates the largest number of asylum seekers in the North East

13/12/2006 Almost 12,000 overseas students join the region’s Universities each year… In : from China from Malaysia from Greece from India …..but only 64 from Poland Only 19% planned to remain in the UK post-study (international student barometer – I-Graduate)

13/12/ UK one of the few EU countries to allow A8 migrants in without a skills qualifier -Migrant workers very concentrated in lower level occupations -CURDS case study on Newcastle shows 45% working in manufacturing; 20% in retail/leisure -employers generally very happy with the level of commitment from A8 workforce -not strong social integration with existing population CURDS looked at the impact of increased migration from eastern Europe…

13/12/ Migrants from non-EU countries are more likely to work in higher-level jobs than those from EU - Migrant workers more likely to be highly qualified - Migrant workers more likely to be in hard-to-fill jobs - There is value in attracting highly skilled migrants and retaining students - The skills mix of migrants should match skills shortages - The skills of existing migrants could be better used to meet the economy’s needs - Promotion of integration should go hand-in-hand with economic development IPPR North looked at the policy implications of international migration…

13/12/ typically, they are recent graduates in their early twenties, often with Masters degrees - there is a tendency to return to their country of origin after a couple of years – but those who stay longer will stay indefinitely - there is a tendency for them to be ‘under- employed’ Newcastle City Council have done some qualitative research migrants living/working in Newcastle…

13/12/2006 Summary of existing research….  The birth rate began to increase in the North East in about 2004, but the increase in population started in 2002 – and was due to increased migration  The ‘top 5’ countries for migrant workers appear to be Poland, India, China, Pakistan and the Philippines  The majority are under 34 years old;  The ‘top 5’ countries for asylum seekers appear to be Iran, Eritrea, Iraq, Zimbabwe and Angola  Key industries employing migrant workers include factories, food processing, catering, farming, construction and distribution  There is some evidence of ‘under-employment’  There is some evidence of poorer treatment by employers than of UK nationals  Employment by agencies is increasingly common

13/12/2006 Policy issues - 1 Is migration a good thing for the economy? Meeting the RES Target – 90% of national GVA/head by any migrant in work is helping to boost GVA. A migrant who is not in work is probably not helping to boost GVA significantly - but any migrant in work needs to generate more GVA per head than the average resident in order to boost GVA/head - migrant workers in higher-skilled jobs will probably generate more GVA/head than the regional average - However, employers think highly of migrant workers and they are probably meeting an otherwise untapped need for labour

13/12/2006 Policy issues – 2 Can migrant workers help to fill skills gaps?  Potentially, yes  Regional cut of the National Employer Skills Survey due to be published shortly  We probably need to know more about where to locate workers with the necessary skills  Retaining skilled people in the region is also important

13/12/2006 Policy issues – 3 The effect of the new ‘points-based’ migration scheme for the North East  Only applies to non-EU nationals  The scheme has five tiers – from free entry of highly skilled people to strong restrictions around the entry of low-skilled people, plus provisions for students and temporary workers  A need for employers to register to recruit migrant workers, to demonstrate a skills shortage, and then to offer skilled migrants a job  Implications for regional policy are around restrictions to non-EU nationals, and helping employers to demonstrate skills shortages

13/12/2006 Trends in migration in the region Jon Carling, Head of NERIP 13 May 2008 NERIP CONFERENCE