Technology Diffusion Theory

Diffusion is the process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channel over time among members of a social system. It is a special type of communications, in that the messages are concerned with new ideas. Communication is a process in which participants create and share information with one another in order to reach a mutual understanding. We think of communications as a two-way process of convergence, rather than as a one-way, linear act in which one individual seeks to transfer a message to another in order to achieve certain effects. Core Concepts in Technology Diffusion 3 Source: “Diffusion of Innovations.” Rodgers, 1962

Uncertainty is the degree to which a number of alternatives are perceived with respect to the occurrence of an event and the relative probability of these alternatives. Uncertainty implies a lack of predictability, or structure, of information. In fact, information is means of reducing uncertainty. 4 Core Concepts in Technology Diffusion Diffusion is a kind of Social Change. When new ideas are invented, diffused and are adopted or rejected, leading to certain consequences, social change occurs. Source: “Diffusion of Innovations.” Rodgers, 1962

“Why do Bad Things Happen To Good Technology? 5 Invented in 1873 by Christopher Sholes to stop mechanical failures by slowing down typists with an awkward and inefficient design Invented in 1932 by Professor August Dvorak ("duh VOR ak”) by studying typists via time-lapse photography, represented a great leap forward in keyboard design ? Source: “Diffusion of Innovations.” Rodgers, 1962

4 Main Elements in the Diffusion of Innovations 6 Source: “Diffusion of Innovations.” Rodgers, 1962 The Innovation Communication Channels Time Social System

4 Main Elements in the Diffusion of Innovations 7 1. The Innovation An idea, practice or object that is perceived to be new. Simultaneously creates one type of uncertainty (about expected consequences) in potential adopters, as well as an opportunity for reduced uncertainty, represented by the information embodied in the innovation itself. Adoption of the innovation requires effort in learning “what is it?” - “how does it work?” “what are the consequences?” and “what will its advantages and disadvantages be in my situation?” Source: “Diffusion of Innovations.” Rodgers, 1962

4 Main Elements in the Diffusion of Innovations 8 Characteristics of Innovation: Relative advantage CompatibilityComplexityTrialabilityObservability Degree to which an innovation is perceived as better that the idea it supersedes. Dimensions include Social Prestige, Convenience and Satisfaction. Degree to which an innovation is perceived as being consistent with the existing values, past experiences and needs of potential adopters. Degree to which an innovation is perceived as difficult to understand and use. Degree to which an innovation may be experimented with on a limited basis. Degree to which the results of an innovation are visible to others. Source: “Diffusion of Innovations.” Rodgers, 1962

4 Main Elements in the Diffusion of Innovations 9 2. Communication Channels The means by which messages get from one individual to another. Mass media is often the most rapid and efficient means to inform an audience of potential adopters about the existence of an innovation… creating awareness Interpersonal channels usually require a face-to-face exchange, but are more effective in persuading an individual to accept a new idea, especially of the interpersonal channel links two or more individuals who are similar in socioeconomic status, education, or other important ways. Most potential adopters do not primarily evaluate an innovation on the basis of a logical study of its consequences, but depend mainly upon a subjective evaluation conveyed to them from other “like” individuals who have previously adopted it. However, change agents are typically not “like” potential adopters in that they are usually more technically competent than the general populous. Source: “Diffusion of Innovations.” Rodgers, 1962

4 Main Elements in the Diffusion of Innovations 10 3.Time Source: “Diffusion of Innovations.” Rodgers, 1962 Confirmation Seeking reinforcement of an innovation decision that has already be made Implementation Putting the innovation to use Decision Engaging in activities that lead to a choice to adopt or reject the innovation Persuasion Forming a favorable or unfavorable attitude toward the innovation Knowledge An individual learns of an innovation’s existence and gains some understanding of how it functions The Innovation Diffusion Process The Innovation Decision Period

4 Main Elements in the Diffusion of Innovations 11 3.Time Source: “Diffusion of Innovations.” Rodgers, 1962 Innovativeness and Adopter Categories Members of the same categories often have a great deal in common, Especially: Media Use & Social Status

4 Main Elements in the Diffusion of Innovations 12 3.Time Source: “Diffusion of Innovations.” Rodgers, 1962 Innovativeness and Adopter Categories Members of the same categories often have a great deal in common, Especially: Media Use & Social Status Innovators – “Venturesome” Active information-seekers of new ideas High degree of mass media exposure Interpersonal networks extend over a wide area Able to cope with a high degree of uncertainty Don’t rely on the subjective evaluations of peers

4 Main Elements in the Diffusion of Innovations 13 3.Time Source: “Diffusion of Innovations.” Rodgers, 1962 Innovativeness and Adopter Categories Members of the same categories often have a great deal in common, Especially: Media Use & Social Status Early Adopters – “Respect” Considered by many as “the one to check in with” on new ideas Local, rather than solely cosmopolitan Highly respected by peers, successful in deploying new technologies Highly judicious in adopting new technologies

4 Main Elements in the Diffusion of Innovations 14 3.Time Source: “Diffusion of Innovations.” Rodgers, 1962 Innovativeness and Adopter Categories Members of the same categories often have a great deal in common, Especially: Media Use & Social Status Early Majority – “Deliberate” Interact frequently with peers, but seldom hold positions of opinion leadership “Be not the first by which new is tried, Not the last to lay the old aside” Deliberate willingness to adopt the new

4 Main Elements in the Diffusion of Innovations 15 3.Time Source: “Diffusion of Innovations.” Rodgers, 1962 Innovativeness and Adopter Categories Members of the same categories often have a great deal in common, Especially: Media Use & Social Status Late Majority – “Skeptics” Suspicious of innovation, Often below average social status, little opinion leadership

4 Main Elements in the Diffusion of Innovations 16 3.Time Source: “Diffusion of Innovations.” Rodgers, 1962 Innovativeness and Adopter Categories Members of the same categories often have a great deal in common, Especially: Media Use & Social Status Laggards – “Traditional” Possess almost zero opinion leadership Decisions based on “what’s been done previously” Interact primarily with others of similar trad values Deeply suspicious of innovations and change agents Economic position often rationalizes rejection of new

4 Main Elements in the Diffusion of Innovations 17 3.Time Source: “Diffusion of Innovations.” Rodgers, 1962 Rate of Adoption = Steepness of S-curve

4 Main Elements in the Diffusion of Innovations 18 Source: “Diffusion of Innovations.” Rodgers, Social System Defined as a set of interrelated units engaged in joint problem-solving to accomplish a common goal, made up of individuals, informal groups, organizations and/or subsystems. All members of a unit must cooperate at least to the extent of seeking to solve a common problem in order to reach a mutual goal. This sharing of a common objective binds the system together. Forms a boundary within which an innovation diffuses.

4 Main Elements in the Diffusion of Innovations 19 Source: “Diffusion of Innovations.” Rodgers, Social System. Social Structure and Diffusion Formal StructureCommunication Structure Bureaucratic organization, government, corporation Development of media channels Well-developed and relatively predictable Relative effectiveness of social affect in culture or sub network Norms. Established behavior patterns for the members of a social system, defining a range of tolerable behavior that serve to tell an individual what behaviors are expected.

The Smoothness of the Curve Hides Bumps in the Road to Adoption 20 Source: “Crossing the Chasm, Marketing and Selling High-Tech Products to Mainstream Customers.” Moore, 1998 Rodgers’ Classic Technology Adoption Curve

21 Source: “Crossing the Chasm, Marketing and Selling High-Tech Products to Mainstream Customers.” Moore, 1998 Moore’s Revised Technology Adoption Curve Moore’s Work Exposes Cracks in the Curve

Cracks in the Curve 22 Source: “Crossing the Chasm, Marketing and Selling High-Tech Products to Mainstream Customers.” Moore, 1998 Moore’s Revised Technology Adoption Curve Innovators  Early Adopters Technology may be “neat,” but has no perceived major new benefit. Enthusiasts love it, but no one else knows what to do with it. Example: Esperanto

Cracks in the Curve 23 Source: “Crossing the Chasm, Marketing and Selling High-Tech Products to Mainstream Customers.” Moore, 1998 Moore’s Revised Technology Adoption Curve Early  Late Majority Market is well developed for innovation, but it’s perceived “as too much work.” Example: Programmable VCRs, Teleconferencing

Cracks in the Curve 24 Source: “Crossing the Chasm, Marketing and Selling High-Tech Products to Mainstream Customers.” Moore, 1998 Moore’s Revised Technology Adoption Curve Early Adopters  Early Majority “THE CHASM”

Cracks in the Curve 25 Source: “Crossing the Chasm, Marketing and Selling High-Tech Products to Mainstream Customers.” Moore, 1998 “The Chasm Catch 22” Early Adopters Expect a radical departure from the past – looking to “change the game” by being first. willing to bear with bugs & glitches as the expected pain of “being first.” Early Majority Most seeking an incremental productivity improvement, evolution – not revolution. No desire to debug someone else’s product. Seeks “peer” references, but incompatibilities w/EA’s make this almost impossible

Cracks in the Curve 26 Source: “Crossing the Chasm, Marketing and Selling High-Tech Products to Mainstream Customers.” Moore, 1998 Requirements to Cross the Chasm Early Majority Most seeking an incremental productivity improvement, evolution – not revolution. No desire to debug someone else’s product. Seeks reference customers, but incompatibilities w/EA’s make none available Pragmatists, the care about the company the are buying from, quality and infrastructure are of key importance They are making a long term decision, unlike the “Early Adopters,” who switch products and services often Preference for existing sales relationships Vertically oriented, the communicated primarily with those in their industry, far more than the Early Adopters (who more often are looking horizontally for inspiration and innovation)

Technology Adoption Exercise 27 Source: “Crossing the Chasm, Marketing and Selling High-Tech Products to Mainstream Customers.” Moore, 1998

Technology Adoption Exercise 28 Source: “Crossing the Chasm, Marketing and Selling High-Tech Products to Mainstream Customers.” Moore, (10:15) Who are YOU? Think about your last 3 – 4 technology purchases or “free services” that you’ve adopted. Right down where do you fit on the curve, and why. Note if you fall in different segments for different types of products and services 2.(10:15) Bodies in the Chasm Come up with 3 technologies that you’re aware of that showed promise, yet failed to catch on with the mainstream. Note why you believe these technologies failed to jump “the chasm” Explain what these technologies needed to accomplish to become mainstream “Turn and Talk”