Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to Climate Change Impacts November 2014, Nairobi Kenya WHY THE WORKSHOP ON CLIMATE/WEATHER DISASTERS? SHEM O. WANDIGA INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADAPTATION

Looking back Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts

Can Climate Change make the impacts of ENSO worse? Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts The figure shows the number of areas affected by drought that hit GHA in 2011 which was named the worst drought in 60 years by the UN

Looking back  Increased frequency of climate caused disasters  Lessons learnt from the 2011 drought disaster vary from country to country  Opportunity to review our knowledge and actions for future such disasters  Knowledge of disaster hot points for El Niño/La Niña helps in preparation for the next one. Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts

Looking back Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts LESSONS LEARNT FORM PAST ENSO EVENTS A girl carrying a weak kid during the drought of 2011 in GHA Flash floods in 2012 in Budalangi making livestock farmers to move to higher grounds Damage to Infrastructure in floods prone areas in the region Malaria and RVF prevalence during floods as such diseases are very common

How did we respond to the disaster  Response varied from country to country:  Somalia The mortality rates began to increase in late 2010 and had already peaked in June-July 2011 On July 20, 2011 famine was declared and this spurred humanitarian response with external support reaching a peak proportional to the problem by September or October 2011 By October 2011, mortality rates were declining rapidly Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts

Donor response  Responses to the crisis were considered very late for both Somalia and Kenya  The decisions were made in the context of institutional and political considerations, which remain the most- important factors determining the success or failure of early warning and early response  In the case of Somalia, political risk preferences, donor geopolitical concerns, and domestic political concerns appear to have outweighed humanitarian concerns, until the declaration of famine forced a response. Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts

Response to disaster  In Kenya:  the response was driven more by the media. Media coverage became nationally prominent in July 2011, in part linked to large movements of people from Somalia into Kenya.  In Ethiopia:  the established seasonal early warning and needs assessment process incorporated the response into its usual timeframe for response according to it’s established procedures Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts

Lessons learned from other countries? Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts PERU The Peruvian government took advantage of the six months of advance warning to construct levees, acquire pumps, plant rice and other water- tolerant crops, and strengthen bridges. Not all these preparations were successful, and the floods still affected the economy. Nevertheless, the impacts were less than would have been the case with no preparation (Mogaka et al., 2006). US, PERU, AUSTRALIA, BRAZIL, INDIA, AND ETHIOPIA Since 1983, when NOAA’s CPC issues El Nino forecasts, they are presented in terms of probabilities. Once issued farmer representatives and government officials meet in the United States, Peru, Australia, Brazil, India and - in the Horn of Africa – Ethiopia, to use this information to determine the types of crops to plant and in what quantity (NOAA, 2014). SUSTAINABLE ENSO MANAGEMENT IN THE PAST

Flooding impacts  In one and a half million persons in Kenya were affected by the El Niño related flooding  The floods and the resulting disaster is estimated to have led to a total economic loss of $0.8 to $1.2 billion arising from damage to infrastructure (roads buildings and communications), public health effects (including fatalities) and loss of crops  Floods of and drought of cost Kenya an equivalent of 11% and 16% of its GDP, respectively Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts

Flooding impacts YearRegion affected (Provinces) No of people affected DisplacedFatalities 2009Nyanza (Kisumu town)150 families Nyanza, Northeastern, Rift Valley, Coastal 12, Western, Nyanza20, , Nyanza, Western, Coastal and Eastern 2005Western, Nyanza, Eastern, Northeastern 35,000 including 25,000 refugees in Dadaab 2004Widespread2, Widespread1,500,00053 Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts

A menu of no regrets option Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts Climate Monitoring Rapid Assessment Land Use Mapping Resource Management Planning Preparing for Health Impacts Infrastructure Rangeland Management Ecosystem Management Sustainable Water Management and Aquaculture Preparation Establishment of Diverse Agricultural Systems Post Harvest management 1.Shelling 2.Grading 3. Packaging 4. Best storage practices 5. Best transport practices ENSO effects Sustainability options

The way forward  Provide actionable information early and notify local governments as soon as possible;  Prioritize areas based on past and projected? impacts;  Use lasting, “no regrets” approaches and work to enhance the resilience of the area to the potential El Niño impacts especially in terms of water management, rangeland management, infrastructure and health preparedness;  Coordinate an open dialog between all involved parties, local government, local and international NGOs, etc.; and  Prepare to move swiftly and act on readiness (contingency?) plans should predictions (the forecasts?) become reality. Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts

Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to Climate Change Impacts November 2014, Nairobi Kenya Presented by Shem O. Wandiga