Emerging Powers in Comparative Perspective Aniello Vidigal Daniel del Gelmo Marcos Hernan Maxime Ndecky

c c South Africa as an emerging power: int’l insertion and rising strategyForeign policy and systemic impact of SA’s riseInt’l constraintsDomestic situation and domestic constraintsPolicy recommendation

South Africa, an Emerging Power Not an original BRICS member, admitted only on 2010 Not-exactly an purely economic choice for BRICS G20 membership UNSC seat at and Regional political leader of Africa 2010 Africa’s biggest GDP (surpassed by Nigeria)

South Africa, an Emerging Power Foreign policy acting towards furthering: – National interest – Regional leadership and representative – Global player(increase participation on the global governance system)

South Africa as a Regional Power SA puts itself as a regional leader as well as a defender of African continent interests – “South Africa’s invitation to join BRICS takes cognisance of our country’s contribution to shaping the socio-economic regeneration of Africa, as well as our active involvement in peace, security and reconstruction efforts on the continent” (Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, SA’s Minister of International Relations and Cooperation)

South Africa as a Regional Power SA takes great diplomatic and military efforts on stabilising the African continent; SA (together with Nigeria) leading position on reconstructing and fostering the African int’l institutions e.g. AU, NEPAD, SADC, SACU, AfDB etc

“a VISION and STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK for Africa’s renewal” Four main areas of work – Skills and employment of youth – Industrialisation, Science, Technology and Innovation – Regional Integration, Infrastructure and Trade – Natural Resources Governance and Food Security

NEPAD Objectives a) To eradicate poverty; b) To place African countries, both individually and collectively, on a path of sustainable growth and development; c) To halt the marginalisation of Africa in the globalisation process and enhance its full and beneficial integration into the global economy; d) To accelerate the empowerment of women

NEPAD

“Five task teams were established to urgently identify and prepare specific implementable projects and programmes. In terms of working arrangements, South Africa is to coordinate the Peace, Security, Democracy and Political Governance Initiative; Nigeria the Economic and Corporate Governance/Banking and Financial Standards/Capital Flows Initiatives; Egypt the Market Access and Agriculture Initiatives; Algeria the Human Resources Development Initiative; and Senegal the Infrastructure Initiative.” (Department of International Relations and Cooperation of SA)

South Africa as a Regional Power SA also promotes itself as a bridge between the other BRICS and the African continent – “By inviting South Africa as a full member, the BRIC countries sought to send a signal to African leaders in general that today’s emerging powers sought to engage with Africa differently than the West had done in the past.” (Stuenkel, p. 50)

South Africa as a Global Player Main field of action is G20 and BRICS; Also takes efforts at world forums to further the African agenda, mainly Human Rights and the development of African continent

South Africa as a Global Player Willingness to have more space on global governance, with support on reforms of int’l institutions – “We share with our BRICS partners the imperative need for the reform of global decision-making structures, in order to improve global governance. We single out, in particular, the comprehensive reform of the UN and international financial institutions.” (Jacob Zuma at New Delhi BRICS summit 2012)

Power dimensions Regionally: hard power Global level: structural power Power Military Structural (Norms) CulturalEconomic

Impact of Rising and Foreign policy Understanding South Africa’s foreign policy. SA’s behavior in international view. 2 nd generation Studies South Africa seen as a middle Power South African Foreign seen as a Pivotal State and acted like it.

South Africa’s Foreign policy South Africa as ANC Leader Prioritization and engagement of South Africa in Africa. South Africa as a Regional Power

Regional Power “Every hegemon is a pivotal state. But it has to be more. Hegemons not only aspire to leadership, and are not only endowed with military, economic, and other resources. They also have * necessarily * a political and socio-economic vision of their transnational environments, and a political willingness to implement such vision. If that vision is one of security, stability, and development, as is often the case, then the hegemon undertakes to underwrite the implementation of these goals. Again, that does not mean that a hegemon does not have partners in this enterprise. It often does, but it takes responsibility in the last instance to ensure that the features of its vision are operationalised in the region it sees as its sphere of influence. More importantly, a hegemon should be prepared to compromise its own dominance in respect of market share, balance of trade, and military overlordship should that be in the interests of fulfilling this vision’’

Domestic situation and domestic constraints

Socioeconomics indicators GDP: 350,1 billion dollars in 2014 (25°) GDP per capta: 6,8 thousand Upper middle income acording to World Bank GINI indicator: 63,4 “The domestic economy is characterised by a well-developed tertiary sector, which accounted for approximately 69% of the country’s GDP in 2012, up from 60% in 1994.” (idc report, pag 4)

GDP

GDP growth

Socioeconomics indicators Population: 54 million people Rising black middle class Brain drain 25% unemployed 5 million illegal immigrants 11 official languages (most common are africaner and english) High rates of criminality not born in AS (censos 2011) 5 million ilegal immigrants (acordingto NY Times)

Infrastructure well-developed financial, legal, communications and transport sectors, as well as an open trade policy and a comparatively strong domestic market. The country is acknowledged for its resilient and stable banking sector. However, there are some obstacles, including rigid labour policies that diminish growth prospects.

Infrastructure However, the country has gone through a series of blackouts in 2007 The crisis was solutioned partially There is a small gap between energy demand and energy capacity.

Imports and exports

International Constraints Geographic Constraints Underdevelopment: 34 out of 49 Political Instability: 32 conflicts -> death and refugees 1000 Chinese companies Poor relations in the continent

International Constraints Historical constraints Political inexperience of leaders Changes on foreign policy(south-south and USA) 30 diplomatic representations -> 160 after apartheid. Difficult access to International Organisations

International Constraints Social constraints Lesotho Crisis: showed how military forces had a lot of problems. - > racism -> insubordination

International Constraints Economic Constraints 2% of international commerce Low aggregated value of goods Poor diversification: oil and gas (75%) and natural resources Dependence on western and Chinese capital Underdeveloped financial markets 2009: credit crisis

International Constraints Inequality and balance of power Nigeria and SA (60% of Africa’s GDP) Southern Africa development community: 33% of the population Islamic Development Bank

Relations between CHINA-SA PositiveNegative Sponsorship of dictatorship (Al Bashir in Darfur) Infrastructure Access on consumtion (Imports) Credit attached with political conditions (IMF – CHINA) Assimetric power

Policy Recommendations SA should take more actions towards achieving hegēmonia, focusing itself on being truly the emerging power engaged with African development, instead of trying to be just the African hegemon.

Thanks thank you [English] dankie [Afrikaans] ngiyathokoza [isiNdebele] enkosi [isiXhosa] ngiyabonga [isiZulu] ke a leboga [Sepedi] ke a leboha [Sesotho] ke a leboga [Setswana] ngiyabonga [siSwati] ndi a livhuha [Tshivenda] ndza Khensa [Xitsonga]