©Copyright 2016 SPV Market Research do not reproduce without permission Paula Mints SPV Market Research 2015 Photovoltaic Manufacturer Shipments May 11, 2016

©Copyright 2016 SPV Market Research do not reproduce without permission SPV Market Research Quality solar market research products – release no analysis before the data are gathered, bias is eliminated, and objectivity is achieved Clients as partners – working towards mutual success “There are only two ways to live your life. One is as though nothing is a miracle. The other is as though everything is a miracle.” Albert Einstein 2

©Copyright 2016 SPV Market Research do not reproduce without permission 3 PV Industry Growth,

©Copyright 2016 SPV Market Research do not reproduce without permission 4 Europe FiT Era Select Markets The FiTs in Europe drove strong demand, but not necessarily consistent demand. Poorly designed FiTs and market behavior created a landscape that, in hindsight, looks like bad wiring. Retroactive changes to FiTs In some markets (Spain, Czech Republic) created a landscape of bankrupt systems and legal wrangling while developers in Greece may not receive expected FiT payments

©Copyright 2016 SPV Market Research do not reproduce without permission 5 Out with the Old, in with the New? Markets are always in Transition

©Copyright 2016 SPV Market Research do not reproduce without permission 6 Supply Update

©Copyright 2016 SPV Market Research do not reproduce without permission PV Industry Metrics 2014 Inventory into GWp, Defective Modules including returns & and modules replaced in the field 1.4-GWp, 2015 installations 50.8-GWp, 2015 shipments from 2015 production 51.9-GWp

©Copyright 2016 SPV Market Research do not reproduce without permission Announcements Versus Reality The goal of analyzing annual PV industry shipments should be to correctly assess the capability of the industry in terms of capacity and its performance relevant to this capacity. Doing so helps manufacturers plan for capacity increases, assess pricing strategy, and identify trends. Focusing on announcements and believing only the most optimistic view of the industry’s capability does not help with strategic planning and may result and even encourage poor planning. The size of the photovoltaic (solar) industry in any calendar year is limited by the crystalline cell and thin film panel capacity. Manufacturers cannot ship more than their available capacity in any year unless they have inventory from the previous year Outsourcing, that is, buying and selling of cells and modules has oversized the PV industry overtime, often significantly

©Copyright 2016 SPV Market Research do not reproduce without permission 9 Manufacturing Capacity at the beginning of 2016 Though China has 47% of cell capacity and 53% of module assembly capacity Chinese Manufacturers, who are expanding manufacturing capacity rapidly to Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam and other countries have 55% of cell capacity and 64% of global module assembly capacity

©Copyright 2016 SPV Market Research do not reproduce without permission Regional Shipments from annual production

©Copyright 2016 SPV Market Research do not reproduce without permission 11 PV Cell and Thin Film Manufacturers Shipping >3% of Total in 2015

©Copyright 2016 SPV Market Research do not reproduce without permission 12 PV Technology Shipment Shares 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015

©Copyright 2016 SPV Market Research do not reproduce without permission 13 Select Country Supply and Demand

©Copyright 2016 SPV Market Research do not reproduce without permission 14 US and Europe Shipments and Demand 2005 through 2015

©Copyright 2016 SPV Market Research do not reproduce without permission 15 Japan and South Korea Shipments and Demand 2005 through 2015

©Copyright 2016 SPV Market Research do not reproduce without permission 16 India and Malaysia Shipments and Demand 2005 through 2015

©Copyright 2016 SPV Market Research do not reproduce without permission 17 China and Taiwan Shipments and Demand 2005 through 2015

©Copyright 2016 SPV Market Research do not reproduce without permission 18 Average Module Prices

©Copyright 2016 SPV Market Research do not reproduce without permission 19 Average Module Prices In 2015, cell and module revenues were $32.8 billion, average module prices were $0.72/Wp, average cell prices were $0.29.Wp In the US the tariff add on to Modules shipped in from China is ~$0.12/Wp, the average price for modules shipped from China after the tariff is currently $0.67/WP though some are as low as $0.57/Wp Inventory module average prices are currently $0.55/Wp with a low of $0.39/Wp

©Copyright 2016 SPV Market Research do not reproduce without permission 20 Economist Kenneth Boulding said: Anyone who thinks that exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.

©Copyright 2016 SPV Market Research do not reproduce without permission Paula Mints, Founder, Chief Market Research Analyst ,