Reproductions of this material, or any parts of it, should refer to the IMF Statistics Department as the source. Real Sector Division IMF Statistics Department 10 th Meeting of the Advisory Expert Group on National Accounts April 13-15, 2016 Paris, France Thomas F. Alexander IMF IMF Statistical Forum and Big Data in National Accounts

Real Sector Division IMF Statistics Department Big Data and Micro Data  Third IMF Statistical Forum Third IMF Statistical Forum Big data and micro-data links a sub-theme of the Forum The terms big data and micro-data are often used interchangeably although they refer to slightly different phenomena Big data: very large datasets which may be analyzed computationally to reveal patterns, trends, and associations. Sources of big data include social media, transactional data, sensor data, and public data. Also:  IMF Big Data and Analytics Symposium - November 2015 IMF Big Data and Analytics Symposium  UN Global Conference on Big Data for Official Statistics - October 2015 UN Global Conference on Big Data for Official Statistics 2

Real Sector Division IMF Statistics Department Big Data and Micro Data  Micro-data: unit-level data obtained from sample surveys, censuses, and administrative systems. They provide information about characteristics of individuals or units such as households, business enterprises, facilities, farms or even geographical areas such as villages or towns (an example would be the wages of individuals in a given company for a set period). 3

Real Sector Division IMF Statistics Department Big Data and National Accounts Big data in national accounts featured throughout the Forum— GDP estimates; GDP forecasts; sector accounts  Session III: Statistics on a From-whom-whom Basis Focused on the need for granularity (by counter-party) Collection of data on a loan-by-loan, security-by-security, trade-by-trade, etc. basis  Europe - Centralized Securities Database and the Securities Holdings Statistics Database; Analytical Credit Dataset (anacredit) Session V: Measuring the Material Conditions of Households  Examined the need to go beyond estimates of GDP to examine household well-being.  Household accounts compiled from micro-data in Thailand (Samphantharak)  Use of administrative data as a replacement for survey data (Guiso) 4

Real Sector Division IMF Statistics Department Big Data and National Accounts  Session I: The Relevance of Micro-data for Evidenced Based Policymaking  Collection of micro data to measure the heterogeneous expectations of individuals and the usefulness of point estimates as opposed to probabilistic expectations (Manski) Comparisons of point predictions of GDP growth with the subjective probability distributions held by forecasters  Forecasters report point predictions that give a more favorable view of the economy than do their subjective means/medians/modes  The deviations between point predictions and the central tendencies of forecasters’ subjective distributions tend to be asymmetric 5

Real Sector Division IMF Statistics Department Micro Data Hubs  Session II: Big data and micro-data hubs  Examined the importance of micro-data hubs to make available to users, granular data that may be confidential or otherwise not shared at the national level The BIS Data Hub: Usefulness in capturing balance sheet linkages Proper aggregation requires underlying granularity “exposure” gross vs net exposures Corporate hierarchy (who owns whom?)  But how do data hubs address the sharing of data across countries  Even if data are shared across countries; how to address different metrics at the granular level 6

Real Sector Division IMF Statistics Department Big Data and Analytical Use  The availability of micro data to a broad spectrum of users has enhanced analyses in a wide range of areas including unconventional monetary policy, financial stability, natural resource management, fiscal policy, and monitoring household wellbeing.  Understanding interconnectedness and spillovers across countries and institutions—crucial for monitoring financial stability—requires granular and real time data. 7

Real Sector Division IMF Statistics Department Role of Statistics Agencies  The relationship between official statistics and big data is evolving. Statistical agencies are well positioned to exploit big data while maintaining their role as providers of the official macroeconomic statistics, with assurances of strong internationally accepted methodological foundations and integrity. Statistical agencies need to establish mechanisms to facilitate the sharing of underlying micro data with users, including for the monitoring of the digital economy. 8

Real Sector Division IMF Statistics Department Role of Statistics Agencies  The legal and privacy constraints of using micro data must be addressed. Statistical agencies and policymakers urged to establish new legal frameworks to support micro-data access while preserving confidentiality. Micro data provided by private institutions, including social media, also need legal underpinning. Once available, micro data can be powerful tools for policy formulation.  Micro-data viewed as key to timely analysis and policy response for everything from unconventional monetary policy, financial stability, natural resource management, fiscal rules, and household well-being, income and wealth distribution. 9

Real Sector Division IMF Statistics Department Key Takeaways  New technologies are key components of micro-data provision, dissemination, and analysis. They include IT, efficient data transmission via SDMX, and the associated further harmonization of the accounting concepts and legal identifiers.  Collaboration and coordination of the national and international statistics communities, as well as academic and policy communities, are key to building "micro-data highways". 10

Real Sector Division IMF Statistics Department Key Takeaways  We may be at a defining period for micro-data, yet the road ahead is challenging. Increased access to micro- data brings a wealth of opportunity, but also raises questions concerning privacy, reliability, and coordination - IMF DMD Min Zhu.  Basic principles of statistics still hold whereby trustworthy, informative and accessible data are fundamental to good policy decisions. Statistics support accounting and independence through transparency -STA Director LM Ducharme. 11

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