Key Insights on the Rust Belt and Mid-Atlantic Democratic Primaries April 14, 2016 Producer: Justin C. Brown Edited by: Katharine Conlon Director: Afzal Bari

East Coast Will Test Candidates’ Viability Among Core Democratic Base Analysis The Mid-Atlantic States will test how the candidates do among the Democratic base, as these states are highly diverse, urbanized and liberal when compared to the rest of the country. The Rust Belt will challenge the candidates on their support among blue-collar workers and rural voters. ■ Hillary Clinton ■ Bernie Sanders Democratic Primary Winners and Future Primary Dates by State April 26 May 10 April 19 April 26 June 7 May 3 Mid-Atlantic States Rust Belt Source: Wilson Andrews, Matthew Bloch, Jeremy Bowers and Tom Giratikanon, “New York Times Primary Results and Calendar,” The New York Times, April 5, 2016; Aaron Bycoffe and David Wasserman, “What Would it Take to Turn Red States Blue?,” FiveThirtyEight, December 3, April 14, 2016 | Justin C. Brown WI IA IL KY MI OH VA IN WV PA NY CT, RI MD, DE NJ 1 RUST BELT AND MID-ATLANTIC DEM OUTLOOK May 17

Remaining States Are Poised to Challenge Previously Established Voting Trends RUST BELT AND MID-ATLANTIC DEM OUTLOOK Key TakeawaysDetails Clinton’s support among minorities falls as Sanders’s recognition grows While Clinton was extremely successful among minorities in the South, Sanders has progressively eaten into her margins among minorities. While some pundits assume Clinton’s success among minorities will continue, others suggest that minorities in the Northeast may vote differently. Clinton benefitted from Sanders’ lack of recognition among minorities early on, but polls show that minorities tend to support Sanders after becoming more familiar with the candidate. Sanders remains popular among young voters, but lower chances of turnout may benefit Clinton Sanders has dominated Clinton consistently among young voters, scoring votes from over 80% of young adults in some primaries. Clinton does well among older voters, a more reliable base as young voters typically have lower turnout rates than their older counterparts. Half of the remaining ten primaries in these states saw above average turnout among young voters in the 2012 election. Clinton and Sanders are extremely competitive among White voters Among college educated White voters, Sanders and Clinton post consistently close margins. Clinton does well among non-college educated White voters in the south, however trends favor Sanders as he does better among less educated, White voters in northern states. Sanders is strong among independents but closed primaries and low independent voter populations pose problems Only three remaining states in these regions have open primaries, the rest hold closed primaries only allowing party-affiliated voters to participate in their primaries. Most states in these regions have fairly low independent voter populations. Rhode Island is the only state with a favorable political landscape for Sanders, possessing both open primaries and an independent voter population above the national average. Key Insights on Rust Belt and Mid-Atlantic States Source: Wilson Andrews, Matthew Bloch, Jeremy Bowers and Tom Giratikanon, “New York Times Primary Results and Calendar,” The New York Times, April 5, 2016; Aaron Bycoffe and David Wasserman, “What Would it Take to Turn Red States Blue?,” FiveThirtyEight, December 3, 2015; Ronald Brownstein, “Bernie Sanders’s Susccessful Insurgency,” The Atlantic, April 7, 2016; CNN Exit Polls, CNN Election Center; US 2010 Census. April 14, 2016 | Justin C. Brown 2

Clinton Continues to Win Minority Vote, But Sanders Eats Into Margin As Primaries Pass April 14, 2016 | Justin C. Brown Source: Ronald Brownstein, “Bernie Sanders’s Susccessful Insurgency,” The Atlantic, April 7, 2016; CNN Exit Polls, CNN Election Center; US 2010 Census. Analysis Clinton has relied on her dominance of the minority vote, winning three-fourths of the total minority primary votes so far. Sanders has gained on Clinton as the primary season drags on, receiving 28% of the non-white vote in Michigan, 32% in Ohio, 37% in Illinois and 43% in Wisconsin. Non-White Population by State The national average of this group is 35% ■ At or Above the National Average ■ Below the National Average *Denotes states that have already held their nominating contests Rust Belt IA* IL* KY MI* OH* VA* WI* IN PA WV NY CT RI NJ DE MD Mid-Atlantic States 3 RUST BELT AND MID-ATLANTIC DEM OUTLOOK

Young Voters Overwhelmingly Back Sanders, But Low Chances of Turnout Help Clinton Analysis Sanders has dominated Clinton consistently among young voters, often scoring votes from over 80% of young adults in some primaries. Clinton does well among older voters, a more reliable base as young voters typically have lower turnout rates than their older counterparts. ■ At or Above the National Average ■ Below the National Average *Denotes states that have already held their nominating contests Young Adult (18-29) Voting Rate in the 2012 Election by State Source: Thom File, “Young-Adult Voting: Analysis of Presidential Elections, ,” US Census, April CNN Exit Polls, CNN Election Center. April 14, 2016 | Justin C. Brown The national average of this group is 45% Rust Belt IA* IL* KY MI* OH* VA* WI* IN PA WV NY CT RI NJ DE MD Mid-Atlantic States 4 RUST BELT AND MID-ATLANTIC DEM OUTLOOK

Clinton Won Non-College Educated Whites in the South, But Sanders Has Captured This Group Up North Analysis Whites without a college degree differ in their candidate of choice largely depending on geography. Sanders bested Clinton in this demographic in Northern states while Clinton rallied support among this group in the South. Exit poll data gives Sanders a slight edge in upcoming primaries as he was popular with this group in Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire and Vermont. (The two candidates effectively tied in Ohio.) ■ At or Above the National Average ■ Below the National Average *Denotes states that have already held their nominating contests Population of White, Non-College Educated Citizens by State Source: Ronald Brownstein, “Trump’s Path Runs Through the Rust Belt” The Atlantic, March 29, 2016; Wilson Andrews, Matthew Bloch, Jeremy Bowers and Tom Giratikanon, “New York Times Primary Results and Calendar,” The New York Times, April 5, 2016; Aaron Bycoffe and David Wasserman, “What Would it Take to Turn Red States Blue?,” FiveThirtyEight, December 3, 2015; CNN Exit Polls, CNN Election Center April 14, 2016 | Justin C. Brown The national average of this group is 34% Rust Belt IA* IL* KY MI* OH* VA* WI* IN PA WV NY CT RI NJ DE MD Mid-Atlantic States 5 RUST BELT AND MID-ATLANTIC DEM OUTLOOK

Most Remaining Primaries in Mid-Atlantic States Are Closed Analysis Bernie Sanders popularity among independent voters would suggest that open primaries would produce results more favorable to the candidate. Surprisingly, Clinton has won more open primaries than Sanders (11-7) while Sanders has a slight lead in closed contests (8-7). New Jersey, Connecticut and Rhode Island are the only states in these regions with above average populations of independent voters. ■ Closed Primary ■ Open Primary *Denotes states that have already held their nominating contests Type of Primary by State Source: National Conference of State Legislatures, “State Primary Election Types,” June 24, 2014; Ballotpedia, “Correlations with 2016 primary and caucus winners,” Accessed April 13, 2016, Caitlin Hurkes, “Independent Voter Registration Statistics,” Independent Voter Project, February 24, April 14, 2016 | Justin C. Brown Rust Belt IA* IL* KY MI* OH* VA* WI* IN PA WV NY CT RI NJ DE MD Mid-Atlantic States 6 RUST BELT AND MID-ATLANTIC DEM OUTLOOK