Harmonization and Use of Standard Analytical Tools for Water Resources Management as an approach towards Regional Cooperation Abdulkarim H Seid Head, Water Resources Management 8 Dec 2014

Water Resources Management involve wide array of decisions Those related to Water resources management and allocation : Water allocation between countries Water allocation for a particular use/sector: volume, tradeoffs Downstream releases: volume, temporal patterns; Giving out land lease and water rights (location, size, etc) Those related to Water infrastructure planning and design : Location, size (scale) of water infrastructure (e.g. dam), What crops will be planted on which area and when Those related to Policies, treaties, … Policies/regulations, such as on minimum flows, etc Whether or not to sign a treaty/agreement on transboundary water 2

Decisions are made by range of Actors Governments : Ministries; Legislatures; State, regional or local government; Municipalities Regulatory and management authorities : River boards, river basin councils/organizations, Regulatory bodies (rivers, groundwater, environment, etc.) Companies, groups and associations: Industries; Associations; (irrigation, rural water supply, environmental lobbies, etc.); Development agencies and agents; Non-governmental organizations Individuals : Domestic household users; Irrigation farmers; Livestock owners; 3

Decisions have consequences Not all consequences are desirable Decisions have consequences (+/-) that, at times, may have far reaching adverse implications due to Imperfect understanding of the problem context (decision problem), Uncertainty: decisions are about the future and the future is uncertain Lack of scientific information: information is never sufficient but often decisions are made ignoring available information Inherent bias towards some ‘preferred’ outcomes 4 Sound Decisions: -Maximize desirable consequences, -Minimize undesirable consequences and -Lead to sustainable outcomes  are made using best use of available scientific information

Harmonization of Practices for Analytic Work In transboundary river basins, decision making in water resources are more complex; Multiple jurisdictions  multiple decision makers, policies, value systems, data standards, etc Use of harmonized procedures/practices among riparians is one step forward towards creating mutual understanding  cooperation on the ‘how’ Harmonization of practices/procedures are needed in: Data collection, processing and sharing/exchange Setting common approaches for environmental flows Environmental and social impacts assessments of WR Development and Management interventions Value system for evaluation of development/management scenarios/options Responses to emergencies (droughts, floods) Etc 5

Analytic Tools Provide a Platform Common Standards Comprehensive analytic tools provide avenues for common/standardized ways of handling different decision making problems They implicitly implement workflows for: Data quality control, processing Modeling different river basin processes, Scenario management Quantification of impacts of planned water resources development and management interventions Multi-criteria Decision Analyses  they can be used for promoting common/harmonized procedures in analytic work in water resources planning and management 6

The Information Value Chain the process flow for scientific information 7 Observed Generated Data Generated through processing of data Information Via processing, interpreting of information Knowledge Comprehensive analytic tools provide the opportunity for implementing common practices/procedures for analytic work

The Nile Basin Decision Support System The Nile Basin Decision Support System is a comprehensive analytical framework that offers: - The software framework for storage, processing, interpretation and visualization of data - Suite of models for simulating river-lake/reservoir systems - Toolset for analyses of water resources problems, evaluate alternative scenarios - Suite of tools for generating information needed for decision making - Toolsets for collaborative decision making in water resources 8

NB Decision Support System Types of information it generates 9 Multi-Criteria Decision Matrix, tradeoffs, etc Environmental, Social Economics Indicators Basin hydrology And Changes

Examples of key issues being explored using NB DSS Understanding how the water resources system of the Nile Basin operates; impacts of Climate Change Assessing likely future scenarios under purely unilateral (no cooperation) development; rewards of cooperation Downstream impacts of upstream developments; Finding mutually beneficial development/management paths Quantifying benefits of coordinated management of storage dams; possible water saving; What are the trade-off (sectoral, country-wise, upstream- downstream) if hydropower dams are developed in the Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia? 10

How the DSS provides the platform for harmonization of analytic tools and procedures The DSS is based on generic workflow that follows good practice Use of the NB DSS implicitly guides the user to adopt this generic workflow  thereby contributing towards commonly adopted workflows While the DSS can be applied over the entire range of typical water resources planning workflows, the user can use the tool to apply it for any segment of the workflow, such data processing and modeling only It provides the necessary tools for Data quality control and assurance Documentation of all user interaction with the system  to make all transactions auditable (key in transboundary and multi-country user settings Open and transparent ways for incorporation of stakeholder preferences in water resources decision problems Open and transparent ways for quantification of criteria for evaluation of water resources management and development scenarios 11

Conclusion The Nile Basin Decision Support System is a comprehensive analytical framework developed to meet needs of complex water resources planning problems It has been developed jointly by NBI member states It provides wide range of analytic tools that support range of planning activities, from data processing to scenario management to decision making It has highly flexible and open architecture and hence expandable Has been tested and applied in Nile Basin Available in NBI member states It has many features that supports adoption of standard procedures for analytic work to support water resources planning Currently it is the only analytic tool that had wide circulation in the Nile Basin countries (99 licenses distributed in 9 countries; 300 more licenses expected early 2015)  has high potential to serve as the standard tool for all Nile Basin riparian countries 12