Contemporary World Politics Professor Kim, JaeChun March 14, 2016 I38014 Art Choi I36005 Soo Hyung Ahn

Introduction  General Questions:  How did the Middle East become so unstable?  Impact of ISIS/Refugee Crisis… problems?  Implications of International Security?  Syria and Civil war and relation to outside world?  Oil, proxy wars, foreign relations?  US vs Russia, Russia vs Turkey, Saudi Arabia vs Iran, Sunni vs Shia, etc…

 Understanding the Syrian Civil war and the precursor to the crisis we face today  Start with ARAB SPRINGS of 2010  Tumultuous times for the Middle East  Tunisia Burning Man Bouazizi.  Protest of Government Corruption  Sparked protests all over middle east.  Libya Gaddafi overthrown, other leaders stepping do wn and transitional governments implemented.

Syrian Civil War  Precursor to Syria civil war and Assad remaining to hold onto power.  Turned violent and into a full blown rebellion  Fought by multiple parties including outside nations  Pro Assad groups vs Factions/Rebel groups vs ISIS /ISIL.  International Intervention

 This video will help clarify some things on the basic level.  And this E E  Now some of you are thinking what about ISIS? what the hell is the ISIS or ISIL?

Proxy War  US vs RUSSIA  espond-to-russia-increased-military-presence -in-syria/ espond-to-russia-increased-military-presence -in-syria/  Political, Economic, Ideological Problem?  mes-panel/

 Russia vs Turkey

 Turkey is a NATO country and shot down Russian Bomber Plane killing the pilot and landed in Syria.  Implications? Tensions build between Russia Turkey and the West.  Turkey says: you are violating our airspace! But Russia would have to fly around Iran and Iraq to get into Syria…  syria-idUSKCN0VC169

ISIS Origins  This is not a non-state actor. Rather, it’s a state-building organization. ISIS’s effort right now is to secure borders and lines of communication.  the organization’s key source of income is oil  the other main source is taxation or extortion.  DW-Ro DW-Ro

ISIS: International Security  France Terror Attacks  San Bernardino Shooting  Using Internet as means of recruitment  Not standard Warfare

ISIS and International Security  is this the defeat of ISIS in Syria truly the end of ISIS beliefs? Do we (the West) need to change our foreign policy? Clash of Civilizations? Zakaria correct in his assessment of US creating the hatred of the West? Is the West really the problem, or is it then Middle East that has the problem?  Is Syria truly the main issue here or is it more about US and Russia proxy war? Is humanitarian venture really the case?

anon-syria-turkey/quick-facts-what-you-need-know- about-syria-crisis  According to mercycorps, the Syrian Crisis is not just a displacement of refugees, but a humanitarian and societal crisis.

More proxy  China’s involvement due to ISIS execution of Chinese Citizen.  Implications of creating US CHINA relations tensions…

Syrian Refugee Crisis

 civil war has killed over 220,000 people, half of whom are believed to be civilians  The U.N. estimates that 6.6 million people are internally displaced.  Refugees, more than half of the country’s pre-war population of 23 million is in need of urgent humanitarian assistance, whether they still remain in the country or have escaped across the borders

 Every year of the conflict has seen an exponential growth in refugees. In 2012, there were 100,000 refugees. By April 2013, there were 800,000. That doubled to 1.6 million in less than four months. There are now 4.3 million Syrians scattered throughout the region, making them the world's largest refugee population under the United Nations' mandate.  The U.N. predicts there could be 4.7 million registered Syrian refugees by the end of 2016 — the worst exodus since the Rwandan genocide 20 years ago.

 Syria’s civil war is the worst humanitarian crisis of our time. Half the country’s pre-war population — more than 11 million people — have been killed or forced to flee their homes  But one fact is simple: millions of Syrians need our help. According to the U.N., it will take $7.7 billion to meet the urgent needs of the most vulnerable Syrians in 2016.

QUESTIONS 1) Because of the crisis in Middle East, how does it affect the international security in your country? 2) What do you think about foreign involvement in Syria? 3) Do you think the West created the conflicts or is it just the middle East problem? 4) Do you think that China will take advantage of the US and Russia proxy war? 5) How do we defeat ISIS? And Why haven’t we done it yet? 6) Another Cold War or WWIII is possible if ISIS is defeated? 7) How can we resolve the situation and refugee problem if possible?

U.S.-South Korean military exercises

Perspective of North Korea, Japan, and China  The reaction to the start of huge U.S.-South Korean military drills.  North Korea: It would make a “pre-emptive and offensive nuclear strike”.  They said that they miniaturized nuclear warheads which can be mounted on ballistic missiles.  These missiles flew 500 km and in the sea.  nuclear-warheads/

 Kim Jung Un visited a facility where the warheads made to “fit on ballistic missiles.”

 Japan: they want to increase military capability and spending.  China: They say Korea is like a frog in boiling water. It will threaten the peace of Asia- Pacific region.

Questions 1. Can we trust North Korea on what they say and believe they made miniaturized missiles? 2. Joint military exercises will escalate more tension in Asia-Pacific region? 3. How does this affect International relations and your country?