Grizzly Bear Complex (2015) Wenaha-Tucannon Wilderness, Umatilla NF, NE Oregon 18 starts from lightning (Aug. 13)

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Presentation transcript:

Grizzly Bear Complex (2015) Wenaha-Tucannon Wilderness, Umatilla NF, NE Oregon 18 starts from lightning (Aug. 13)

7-day FSPro Run using 4K Fires with Scott & Reinhardt (Aug )

Accepted 7-day FSPro Run using 4K Fires with Finney (Aug )

Grizzly Bear Complex (2015) Wenaha-Tucannon Wilderness, Umatilla NF, NE Oregon 18 starts from lightning (Aug. 13) Dry cold front passage with strong winds increased fire size to 2,000 acres; 13 fires grew together (Aug. 16)

Accepted 7-day FSPro Run using 4K Fires with Finney (Aug ) Aug. 17 am perimeter (3,583 ac)

Grizzly Bear Complex (2015) Wenaha-Tucannon Wilderness, Umatilla NF, NE Oregon 18 starts from lightning (Aug. 13) Dry cold front passage with strong winds increased fire size to 2,000 acres; 13 fires grew together (Aug. 16) Strong north winds pushed fire south through Butte Creek and across the Wenaha River Drainage; estimated fire size from VIIRS was 11,700 acres (Aug. 19 am)

Aug. 19 VIIRS (red perimeter) overlaid on 7-day FSPro run—6 days later. Six mile run to the SE (solid line). One of the rare event fires (pink) ran 7 miles to the east (dashed line) using Finney CFCM.

7-day FSPro Run using 4K Fires Scott & Reinhardt (Aug )

Hmm, what to do? Do you go with S&R or Finney or something in between? Both—a predicted and worst-case? What do you use as a baseline? This fires growth? Local knowledge? Your experience? Historical fires (e.g., School 2005)? A nearby fire currently burning in similar terrain, fuels, and elevation (i.e., Eagle; WWF)?

Grizzly Bear Complex (2015) Wenaha-Tucannon Wilderness, Umatilla NF, NE Oregon 18 starts from lightning (Aug. 13) Dry cold front passage with strong winds increased fire size to 2,000 acres; 13 fires grew together (Aug. 16) Strong north winds pushed fire south through Butte Creek and across the Wenaha River Drainage; estimated fire size from VIIRS was 11,700 acres (Aug. 19 am) Strong west winds pushed fire down Wenaha River Drainage; winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph for a 36 hour period (Aug. 20)

Aug. 21 pm IR (red perimeter) overlaid on CALIBRATED 2-day short-term fire behavior run (Aug ). Each color represents 12 hours of growth. 12-mile run to the east to Troy, OR (circled). “Burn period” increased Increasing Spotting Lowering FMC & FMS