U N I T E D S T A T E S D E P A R T M E N T O F C O M M E R C E N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N NOAA Climate Service: Regional approaches and assessments Anne M. Waple Manager, NOAA’s Assessments Services

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N The Rising Demand for Climate Services 3 Recreation Hydropower Commerce Farming CoastsEcosystems Wind EnergyPrivate Sector

Meeting the Rising Demand for Climate Services 1.NOAA’s existing framework is not optimized for climate service delivery. 2.To meet climate service demands, NOAA must: Connect users to existing climate products and services Provide understandable, usable and accessible climate information Actively engage users in service development. 3.NOAA must maintain leadership in observing, research, modeling and assessments, while delivering climate services “If America is to avoid the most damaging effects of climate change, we have to first understand it – and that is where the Department of Commerce is instrumental.” - Secretary of Commerce, Gary Locke “If America is to avoid the most damaging effects of climate change, we have to first understand it – and that is where the Department of Commerce is instrumental.” - Secretary of Commerce, Gary Locke NOAA’s CarbonTracker 4

NOAA’s Strategic Climate Goals 1.Delivery of Sustained & Effective Services 2.Promoting Collaborative Partnerships 3.Advancing Climate Science Continue to Build, Evaluate and Adapt NOAA’s Core Competencies in Three Key Strategic Areas 5

Information Delivery and Decision Support NOAA uses its national and regional infrastructure to deliver climate services today Assessments of Climate Change and Impacts NOAA is a leader in national and regional climate impact assessments Over 70% of Federal IPCC AR4 WG1 authors were from NOAA Climate Change Research and Modeling Internationally recognized models of the global climate Climate Observations and Monitoring NOAA operates over 90 observation and monitoring systems NOAA is mandated to monitor and provide access to climate data and information 6 Security Forestry Water Health Infrastructure Oceans Other Energy Land Management Global NOAA commits to providing critical assets in science and service to a Federal partnership Federal Response to the nation’s climate challenges NOAA’s Assets Partnerships & Collaboration *Representative Organizations & Sectors * *

NOAA Climate Service Proposal 7 VISION MISSION GOALS

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Regional: All agencies must engage in a Regional Climate Service Enterprise to ensure users have the climate information they need. NOAA’s regional service capacity, with over two centuries of experience, is delivering services today through public and private partnerships, and is ready to engage in the national climate service strategy. Regional: All agencies must engage in a Regional Climate Service Enterprise to ensure users have the climate information they need. NOAA’s regional service capacity, with over two centuries of experience, is delivering services today through public and private partnerships, and is ready to engage in the national climate service strategy. NOAA’s Role in a National Strategy 8 International: All nations must recognize the need for climate services, and continue on the progress made at the WCC-3. NOAA is internationally recognized as advancing the state of climate knowledge, for leadership in GEOSS, and is viewed as critical to developing regional scale impact assessments. International: All nations must recognize the need for climate services, and continue on the progress made at the WCC-3. NOAA is internationally recognized as advancing the state of climate knowledge, for leadership in GEOSS, and is viewed as critical to developing regional scale impact assessments. National: All agencies must consider climate change impacts as it relates to their mission areas, and commit to work within a cooperative and collaborative interagency strategy. NOAA provides core capabilities to national climate services through NOAA’s decades of expertise in observing, monitoring, research, modeling, assessments, and existing service delivery structures. National: All agencies must consider climate change impacts as it relates to their mission areas, and commit to work within a cooperative and collaborative interagency strategy. NOAA provides core capabilities to national climate services through NOAA’s decades of expertise in observing, monitoring, research, modeling, assessments, and existing service delivery structures.

9 Regional Climate Science Other agencies (e.g., National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Dept. of Interior, Dept. of Agriculture, National Science Foundation & other USGCRP agencies) Etc… Regional Integrated Science & Assessments (RISA) NOAA Labs Sea Grant Cooperative Institutes Applied Research Centers Data Centers Regional Climate Services Partnerships Weather Forecast Offices Sea Grant Education & Extension Marine Sanctuaries, Monuments & Estuarine Reserves River Forecast Centers Data Centers DOC Commerce Connect (in development) Other agencies (e.g., National Science Foundation, Dept. of Education, Health & Human Services, Dept. of Energy, Dept of Interior, Dept of Agriculture) Dept. of Agriculture Extension State Climatologists Federal Protect Area Programs USGCRP Climate Literacy Partners Etc… State and Local Engagement, Education & Service Delivery Federal Regional Climate Service Enterprise Connecting Science, Services and People NOAA Regional Climate Service Programs Weather Service Regions Regional Climate Centers Coastal Services Center River Forecast Centers Regional Collaboration Teams Data Centers Relevant Regional Offices from other agencies (e.g., Environmental Protection Agency, Dept. of Agriculture, Dept. of Interior, Health and Human Services, Dept. of Transportation, Dept of Energy, etc.) USER ENGAGEMENT Development, Delivery & Evaluation of Products & Tools Understanding and Translating User Needs Informing Program Requirements USER ENGAGEMENT Development, Delivery & Evaluation of Products & Tools Understanding and Translating User Needs Informing Program Requirements Government Private Sector Academia NGO’s

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N – Build a robust, service-centric program that ensures that users are actively engaged in service development through sustained engagement, dialogue and collaboration with users – Improve the integration of climate science and services across the nation’s climate service enterprise by promoting partnerships that leverage the assets of all levels of government, academia, NGOs and the private sector State, Local and Tribal Engagement, Education & Service Delivery 10

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N – Develop, deliver and communicate problem-focused products, information services and decision support tools – Connect users to existing climate products and services while continuing to develop new, authoritative, reliable services Regional Climate Products and Services 11

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N – Support decision-making by providing place-based information and assessments that advance understanding of regional and sectoral climate impacts and risks in coordination with USGCRP and other national and regional programs – Promote scientifically-based adaptation and mitigation support by building and integrating NOAA’s climate science capabilities Regional Climate Science 12

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Regional Climate Services Enterprise: A Conceptual Pearl

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Regional Climate Services: A NOAA View

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N NOAA has created 6 new Regional Climate Service Director positions Announcements were posted on USAJOBS (closed March 9 th, 2010) The primary functions include: – Responsibility for providing leadership in the development of an integrated NOAA program of climate services on a regional scale that responds to the needs of stakeholders and draws upon agency-wide assets and capabilities. – Management of the development and execution of a Regional Climate Services Strategic Plan that combines the unique assets and special capabilities of NOAA programs working with regional partners in other Federal agencies, state, local and tribal governments, universities, the private sector and NGOs. Establishment of New Regional Positions 15

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N NOAA’s 6 Regional Climate Service Directors will provide leadership in the regions on the integrated NOAA Climate Service. Several major national initiatives are invoking a regional construct for the execution of services to stakeholders, climate is one of these efforts The regional Climate Service Directors will also be assisting with the creation of regional chapters to the National Climate Assessment. NOAA Climate Services and Regional Assessments 16

ASSESSMENTS NOAA support for assessments over recent years includes: 9 GCRP Synthesis and Assessment Products GCRP Global Climate Change Impacts Report IPCC assessments All ozone assessments State of the Climate Reports Some background….

NOAA’s Assessment Services Most recent National Climate Assessment, 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States 9 regions, 7 sectors, and an ‘agenda for science’ section Some focus on Adaptation NOAA’s Assessment Services

National Climate Assessment -Due every 4 years according to the Global Change Research Act (GCRA) – next due in 2013 New focus on GCRP-led National Climate Assessment – strategic plan underway February workshop in Chicago NOAA’s Assessment Services

Some important outcomes from Chicago: Move beyond the GCRA Process vs product – participatory Serve both adaptation and mitigation decisions, not just impacts synthesis Sustainable Rigor vs relevance Regionally and sectorally focused Assessment as connective tissue between science/ research and services (including adaptation program, NCS etc) NOAA’s Assessment Services

One possible approach: “Nested Matrix” Not possible to address climate change impacts and responses for each sector at local, regional, and national scales on an ongoing basis Instead… NRC, 2007: “using analysis of large-scale trends and identification of priority issues as the context for focused, smaller-scale impacts and response assessments at the regional or local level.” NOAA’s Assessment Services

What is NOAA planning to do? Important goals: - to identify where our responsibility ends - commitment to sustainable, ongoing and transparent process Assessments will be a central component of NCS Connecting science to services All closely tied to US GCRP emerging plans and Agencies NOAA’s Assessment Services

Key sectoral strengths includes coasts and oceans, water. key partnerships already existing across sectors, federal agencies, state and local, and more Regional capacity – begin by building on existing regional infrastructure ( in partnership with other agencies etc) - including RISAS, RCCs, SCs, CIs, Sea Grant, external grants, NWS regions - Note: not starting from scratch - increasing and improving capacity Regional engagement – problem/issue focused Coordination/Technical support unit (e.g. data, model, web resources, publishing etc) NOAA’s Assessment Services

Data access and transparency Modeling, including downscaling Research and other activities e.g. attribution services Communication, education

NOAA’s Assessment Services Next steps (April 2010): RISAs and RCCs now proposing their activities for Assessment services Establishing technical support unit Actively working on strategic plan for National Assessment Engaging in data, model, web infrastructure planning, including workshops

For More Information… 26 Q&As, proposed reorganization chart, a Power Point, climate handouts featuring our science and regional services, and recordings from this Town Hall and a press conference. New mailbox to address your questions NOAA’s new Climate Portal

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Backup Slides 27

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N NOAA Climate Service Leadership in Living Marine Resources & Ecosystems 28 Living Marine Resources and Ecosystem Issues Climate Impacts on Ecosystems/Fisheries Endangered Species Act Requirements Attribution of Climate Signals impacting ecosystems : Long Term Change & Natural Variability Ocean Warming: Impacts on Distribution & Productivity (phenology, production, invasives) Physical and Chemical Changes to the ocean (Ocean Acidification Impacts on Marine Biota) Impacts of Loss of Sea Ice on Living Marine Resources NOAA Products and Services Ocean Warming: Impacts on Distribution & Productivity of Coastal Ecosystems & Fisheries Impacts of Loss of Sea Ice on Living Marine Resources Physical and Chemical Changes to the Ocean Ecosystem Habitat Monitoring and Restoration Key Federal Agencies NOAA, DOI, EPA

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N NOAA Climate Service Leadership in Coastal Regions 29 NOAA Products and Services Coastal Inundation Modeling Observations and Monitoring of Coastal Areas Forecasting of Coastal Storms Information for Adaptation Planning NOAA sea-level standards have been adopted by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for civil works programs. Key Federal Agencies NOAA, DOI, NASA, DOE, Army Corps of Engineers Coastal Issues Sea level rise and inundation Precipitation patterns and associated effects on freshwater, nutrient, and sediment flow Ocean temperature Circulation patterns Frequency, track and intensity of coastal storms Levels of atmospheric CO2 and ocean acidification

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N NOAA Climate Service Leadership in Water 30 Water Issues Precipitation Patterns; Drought and Floods Changes in snowpack (quantity and timing) River stream flow Fire outlooks Physical Infrastructure (i.e., dams, reservoirs, water delivery systems) Planning (e.g., urban, agriculture, health) NOAA Products and Services Monitor and Forecast Drought and Flood Related Conditions National Integrated Drought Information System ( NIDIS) (Including Stakeholder Engagement) Key Federal Agencies NOAA, DOI, Army Corps of Engineers, USDA, EPA