Boston’s Triple Revolution Demographic, Industrial, and Spatial Change in Greater Boston 1950-2007 Professor Barry Bluestone Dean, School of Social Science,

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Boston’s Triple Revolution Demographic, Industrial, and Spatial Change in Greater Boston Professor Barry Bluestone Dean, School of Social Science, Urban Affairs, and Public Policy Northeastern University October 2008

How Did Boston Rank?  Most distressed and declining cities: Atlanta, BOSTON, Cleveland, Dayton, Hartford, Philadelphia, Newark, and Trenton  BOSTON and Cleveland are in the most disadvantaged third of all nine components of the city distress and decline indexes.  City Distress Index: BOSTON -5 (Worst)  City Decline Index: BOSTON -4 (Worst)  SMSA Decline Index: BOSTON -4 (Worst)  Disparity Index: BOSTON -5 (Worst)  Source: Bradbury, Downs, and Small, Urban Decline and the Future of American Cities (Brookings, 1982)

Non-White: 50.8%

The Industrial Revolution

Key Industrial Sectors  Higher Education  Health Care  Financial Services  High Tech/Information Services  Defense  Biotechnology/Nanotechnology

The Spatial Revolution

Boston: High Cost of Living

Top Decile: Metro Area Cost of Living Boston $ 64,656 Washington (D.C. portion) $ 61,440 Nassau-Suffolk, NY $ 60,780 Stamford-Norwalk, CN$ 60,720 Lawrence (Mass. portion) $ 59,280 New York, NY$ 58,656 Barnstable-Yarmouth, MA $ 58,236 San Francisco, CA $ 57,624 Worcester (Mass. portion) $ 55,704 Springfield, MA$ 55,320 Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN$ 54,948 Nashua, NH $ 54,852 Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA$ 53,808 Oakland, CA $ 53,412 San Jose, CA $ 52,800 Pittsfield, MA $ 52,632 Rochester, MN $ 51,288 Monmouth-Ocean, NJ$ 50,736 San Diego, CA $ 50,088 Newark, NJ$ 49,992 New Haven-Meriden, CN $ 49,848 Honolulu, HI $ 49,824 Philadelphia (Pa. portion) $ 49,716 Boulder-Longmont, CO$ 49,596 Bridgeport, CN$ 49,272 Manchester, NH $ 49,152 Santa Rosa, CA$ 48,924 Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY $ 48,900 Hartford, CN$ 48,684 Trenton, NJ$ 48,576 Rochester, NY$ 48,540 Economic Policy Institute: Family Budget Calculator Universe: 304 U.S. Metro Areas

Boston Family Budget – 4 Persons  Housing Costs: 7 th Highest MSA  Child Care: 7 th Highest MSA  Health Care: 7 th Highest MSA  Personal Care: 6 th Highest MSA  Fed/State Tax: 2 nd Highest MSA  Total Cost: 1 st Highest MSA Economic Policy Institute, Family Budget Calculator, 2005 Among 304 U.S. Metropolitan Areas

A Tale of Two Cities Basic Budget 2 Parents, 2 Children Boston Monthly Housing$1,266 Monthly Food$ 587 Monthly Child Care$1,298 Monthly Transportation$ 321 Monthly Health Care$ 592 Monthly Other Necessity$ 500 Monthly Taxes$ 824 Monthly Total$5,388 Annual Total $64,656 Raleigh-Durham- Chapel Hill Monthly Housing$ 779 Monthly Food$ 587 Monthly Child Care$ 866 Monthly Transportation$ 358 Monthly Health Care$ 368 Monthly Other Necessity$ 369 Monthly Taxes$ 350 Monthly Total$3,677 Annual Total $ 44,124 A Tale of Two Cities Source: Economic Policy Institute, “Family Budget Calculator, 2005”

CURP Study of Housing, Employment and Population  Metro areas with highest cost of living are suffering slow employment growth or outright job loss  Metro areas with the highest cost of living are suffering for net out-migration of domestic population  Paradox: The shortage of housing supply can lead to a future sharp decline in housing prices … as jobs and workers leave the state

Low PriceHigh Price Economic Policy Institute, “Family Budget Calculator, 2005”; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Universe: 245 U.S. Metro Areas 0.95% 2.91% 2.29% 0.86% 1.53% 0.68% -0.68% 0.12% -0.62% 1.49%

Boston MSA (-4.9%) Economic Policy Institute, “Family Budget Calculator, 2005”; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Universe: 245 U.S. Metro Areas

Monthly Housing Cost Employment Change (%) ( ) Boston MSA %∆Emp( ) = Housing Cost (4.07) E-007 Housing Cost SQ (4.04) N = 245 Adj. R Square =.056

Low CostHigh Cost Economic Policy Institute, “Family Budget Calculator, 2005”; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics -0.21% 0.93% -0.02% 0.84% 1.06% 0.50% 1.09% 1.98% 0.62% 2.53% Universe: 245 U.S. Metro Areas

Boston MSA (-5.2%) Economic Policy Institute, “Family Budget Calculator, 2005”; U.S. Bureau of the Census Universe: 304 U.S. Metro Areas

Internal Migration (% Change) Monthly Housing Cost Boston MSA %∆Internal Migration = Housing Costs (7.03) E-007 Housing Costs SQ (7.39) N = 304 Adj. R Square =.153

Internal Migration (% Change) Monthly Housing Cost Boston MSA %∆Internal Migration = Housing Costs (7.03) E-007 Housing Costs SQ (7.39) N = 304 Adj. R Square =.153 San Francisco Stamford-Norwalk San Jose Boston Oakland Nassau-Suffolk

-2.12% 0.16% 1.54% 1.40% 2.19% 1.04% 0.60% 0.41% 0.19% 0.39% Economic Policy Institute, “Family Budget Calculator, 2005”; U.S. Bureau of the Census Universe: 304 U.S. Metro Areas Boston

Projected Percent Change in Households by Age Cohort, The Future Demographics of Massachusetts Source: U.S. Census Demographic Projections Of a net increase of 193,500 households, 244,600 are projected to be age 55 +

The Life & Death of American Cities  Detroit  New Orleans  Boston  Does failure lead to failure?  Does success lead to failure?