Technical seminar on Iran Jolyn Debuysscher - Country and Sector Risk Analyst Mireille Janssens - Business development advisor Credendo group The Belgian Export Credit Agency 8 March 2016

International credit insurance Group  Public institution  Belgian State Guarantee / S&P : AA rated  MLT transactions and support to Belgian exporters  Private insurance company  No State Guarantee  ST transactions – insured’s worldwide BELGIUM Delcredere | Ducroire, the Belgian ECA2

Credendo group – Iran  Cover policy  Country overview

4 >Credendo group can cover export transactions financed by both short-term credits and medium/long- term credits on open account terms, i.e. without a bank guarantee being required, and without any further particular conditions. >No cover for USD transactions Iran| 08 March 2016 Credendo group resumed cover for Iran on 22/01/16

5 >Relative diversified economy -4 th largest proven crude oil reserves and 2 nd largest natural gas reserves in the world -11th biggest mineral producer (copper, iron, chromium, phosphates, salt, gold, silver,…) -2 nd largest producer of petrochemicals in the Middle East -Well-established automotive industry with considerable growth potential → Low oil prices don´t affect Iran as much as other oil exporters Country of opportunities Iran| 08 March 2016 Iran

6 >In 2016 huge boost for economy is expected -Higher oil production -Lower costs for trade and financial transactions -Restored access to foreign assets -Access to international financial market and hence accumulation of debt likely (albeit from low level) -Use their high level of foreign exchange reserves (18.5 months of import cover) → Economic growth of 4.3% in 2016, coming from zero growth in 2015 → Current account surplus of 2.1% of GDP is expected in 2016 (1.3% in 2015) Country of opportunities Iran| 08 March 2016 Iran

7 >The government is pursuing sound macroeconomic policies -Diversifying the economy away from oil -Cuts in the elaborated subsidy system -Bringing inflation under control -Recent parliamentary election outcome can help protect Rouhani´s liberal agenda → Inflation coming down from 42% in 2012 to an expected 9% in 2016 → Fiscal deficit is expected to narrow to 1.3% of the GDP in 2016 from -2.5% in 2015 Country of opportunities Iran| 08 March 2016 Iran

8 >Business environment is rather difficult -118th out of 189 countries in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Uncertain regulatory environment, bureaucratic red tape, complicated legal system,… -Widespread corruption -Overvalued exchange rate >Remaining international sanctions -Snap-back mechanism -Remaining EU/UN sanctions -Remaining US secondary sanctions (e.g. on IRGC entities and affiliates) -US primary sanctions (USD, US entities & persons, US goods, US banks) >Significant outstanding external arrears -Intensified sanctions -As external assets are partly unfrozen it is expected that Iran will pay back the outstanding external arrears in the near future However, there are still risks Iran| 08 March 2016 Iran

Credendo group - Products  Credit insurance  Funding by D|D  Investment insurance  Financial Guarantee

Special cash transaction no credit 1) payable per transfer 2) payable per LC with /or without confirmation Buyer credit credit to the buyer / bank 1) Credit facility directly to the buyer Supplier credit credit to the buyer / bank 1) no discounting 2) discounting with /or without recourse Credit Insurance for Belgian export transactions Delcredere | Ducroire, the Belgian ECA10

 Forfaiting for small Belgian export transactions Indirect financing credit to the buyer / Delcredere|Ducroire  New direct funding product coming soon Direct financing credit to the buyer / Delcredere|Ducroire Financing solutions by Delcredere | Ducroire Delcredere | Ducroire, the Belgian ECA11

 Investment Insuranceno credit Capital invested abroad insured for political risks only  Financial Guaranteecredit to the exporter / bank Helps to access to bank financing Risk sharing with bank Delcredere | Ducroire – Other Products Delcredere | Ducroire, the Belgian ECA12

Financial guarantee Facilitate access to credit facilities Belgian Exporter Chinees Buyer Credit insurance C over risks taken on the buyer Forfaiting / Direct funding Offer credit to the buyer Export transaction Delcredere | Ducroire, the Belgian ECA 13

Turning uncertainties into opportunities Jolyn Debuysscher Country and Sector Risk Analyst Mireille Janssens Business Development Advisor Tel :