Ricardo Cuenca IEP Institute of Peruvian Studies SIEP Peruvian Society for Educational Research

1. Metropolitan Lima: a new city 2. Research questions, hypothesis and objectives 3. Mapping of private schools in Metropolitan Lima 4. Outlook for private schools in Metropolitan Lima 5. Future of public schools in Metropolitan Lima

Demographic characteristics Economic characteristics

Lima, Perus capital, is the second-largest desert city in the world after Cairo The estimated population in 2010 was 9,160,384 inhabitants (28% of total) The area is 2, Km² (0.2% of the country) Population density is 19.3 inhabitants per Km 2

Real monthly average per-capita income in Metropolitan Lima is 58% higher than in other urban areas 72% higher than in rural areas

What is the future of public schools in Metropolitan Lima? Who is demanding private basic education in Lima? What is the quality of private schools in Metropolitan Lima? Who would be the future users of public schools in Lima?

Demand for public basic education services in Metropolitan Lima could be reduced to the most excluded families, in a scenario in which the supply of private education increases, despite the quality of the service economic growth is sustained family size remains the same (or decreases)

Analyze the future situation of public schools in Metropolitan Lima in light of the economic and socio-demographic changes in the country project the enrollment rate in primary education in private schools in Metropolitan Lima identify relationships between poverty levels in districts and the existence of low-performing private schools discuss the role of public schools in light of the expansion of private education

Location of schools Characteristics of schools Quality of education

The majority of schools in Lima are private The higher the income, the larger the number of private schools The lower the income, the greater the demand for private schools

Private schools are smaller (student enrollment)

The number of teachers is slightly higher in private schools

The quality of private education is not uniform

Private education is of higher quality in wealthier districts

Increase in supply of private education Sustained economic growth Family size

Only for primary education…

The districts with the greatest economic growth used to be the poorest … that trend continues

The number of family members could drop from 4.5 to 3.5

Principal finding The dream of private education Lack of interest in public schools Education for human capital Final questions

If this scenario holds true, the analysis shows a high probability of: displacement of public education by private education concentration of public education among the citys most excluded groups

Quality of teachers (associated with higher salaries) Parental control and oversight Better infrastructure and equipment (technology) Inefficiency of the State compared to private institutions High levels of corruption in public administration Profitability of investment in private education

Exceptional measures take the place of regular policies Managing scarcity in education policies for public schools Poverty is not offset by high-quality education in public schools Free public education?

The rise of the knowledge production and information management in modern societies The primacy of effectiveness and profitability as criteria The educational system must allocate and redistribute resources effectively if it is to increase its educational capital (individual)

To whom will schools belong in the future? Families? The State? Private enterprise? What roles will the State play? What will happen to its traditional role of taking care of citizens? Have we reached the end of one form of organization of the educational system? Is the private school the future of urban education?

Ricardo Cuenca IEP Institut of Peruvian Studies SIEP Peruvian Society for Educational Research