Global Food Security: defusing the ticking time-bombs Nature & Society Forum Canberra, March 20, 2013 Julian Cribb FTSE.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Economics of Food Markets 17 October 2007 Food Security in an Age of Falling Water Tables The Food Security Challenge in an Age of Falling Water Tables.
Advertisements

SECRETARIAT OF THE CONVENTION TO COMBAT DESERTIFICATION SECRETARIAT DE LA CONVENTION SUR LA LUTTE CONTRE LA DESERTIFICATION 1.
Interconnectedness of World Problems
The Coming Famine: risks and opportunities for global food security
The Coming Famine : risks and opportunities for global food security risks and opportunities for global food security Julian Cribb FTSE Food Integrity.
Lesson Overview 6.1 A Changing Landscape.
Department of Economics Bapatla College of Arts & Science Indian Agriculture – An Overview.
Future trends of commercial agriculture in this region.
Food Security Prepared By :Rana Hassan Supervised By :Dr. Raed Alkowni
Chapter 19 Food Resources
Ecological Footprint.
© CommNet 2013 Education Phase 3 Sustainable food production.
Feeding the world involves soil and water resources, food production, social and cultural issues, food distribution and environmental impacts.
Chapter 5: Natural Systems Under Stress Daniel Burton Geoff Koegler.
Protecting Today’s Investments For Tomorrow’s Innovations.
Ch 1 Environmental Problems, Their Causes and Sustainability.
1 THE EFFECTS OF THE POPULATION EXPLOSION p. 264.
Earth Science 4.3 Water, Air, Land Resources
Overpopulation. Estimates of Most Populous Countries in 2025 Ratio* = 2025:1950.
The Global Food Security Challenge ( GLDN for ECA, Dec 18th.
Agricultural Issues/Solutions Will, David, Felix and Masa.
1 Water in Bioenergy Agroecosystems Workshop Industry perspective on water for bioenergy production Alistair Wyness, BP International Group Water Expert.
Chapter 1: Environmental Problems, Their Causes and Sustainability
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
AP Environmental Science
Food security… ... exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their.
Objective 2.02 Compare the current and future issues in global agriculture.
DO NOW Journal Entry – answer the following: Journal Entry – answer the following: What is environmental science?
environmentally sustainable society A Society that satisfies the basic needs of its people without depleting or degrading its natural resources and thereby.
Living with water shortages To know why water availability and quality is declining To be able to explain the difference between water scarcity and water.
Ag Production and the Environment Text adapted from The World Food Problem Leathers & Foster, 2009 ttp:// Toward-Undernutrition/dp/
What factors might affect ELBs businesses? What will these do to my chances of getting a job?
Food Resources. Food in the World 30,000 plant species with parts people can eat 15 plants and 8 animals supply 90% of our food Wheat, rice, and corn.
Christopher Papes Gregory Tulchin Colin Sullivan V1003 Climate and Society Fall 2009.
Brought to you by: David Donnan, Partner A.T. Kearney November 2012 Can We Feed the World? Recipe for Change:
Rural Futures – Meeting Policy and Market Challenges: Secure Food Supply and Market Integrity Kevin Steel, Principal Adviser, Strategy Development 24 September.
Genetically modified crops and foods have advantages and disadvantages.
Earth and The Human Denominator. Human Population Growth Figure 21.3.
Lesson objectives: To be able to describe global access to water To be able to explain why water demand is increasing Key terms SupplyDemandUrbanisationExtraction.
What is a sustainable society? What is Natural Capital and what is its importance to sustainability? Sustainability and Natural Capital.
Objectives Explain how the rate of human population growth is determined and compare the rates of growth over the last 100 years Distinguish between people.
Review Water Resources 2.5% of the Earth’s water is fresh water. – 70% of that is ice caps and glaciers – Almost 30% is ground water – Remainder.
Lesson Overview Lesson Overview A Changing Landscape Lesson Overview 6.1 A Changing Landscape.
Chapter A Changing Landscape
Engineering Perspectives – Towards Structural Change Jackie Kepke, P.E. Workshop on Climate, Society, and Technology June 7, 2011.
Succession Management in Horticulture Human resources and the future of food production Ian Macleod, Peracto Pty Ltd Ausveg Convention - 16 April 2011.
Chapter 1 Science and the Environment.  Environment – everything around us, including natural and man-made  Complex web of relationships connecting.
Our Vision: A new, positive relationship between people and the environment.
Lesson objectives: To be able to describe global access to water To be able to explain why water demand is increasing Key terms SupplyDemandUrbanisationExtraction.
Lesson Overview 6.1 A Changing Landscape.
Food and Nutrition Security and Agriculture
Lesson Overview 6.1 A Changing Landscape.
AN OVERVIEW ON THE IMPACT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ON ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY Dr. Eko, Maria.O.(MSTAN)
Animal foods are hard on our planet
Environmental Science
Investing in Natural Capital
Disclaimer: Please note and abide by copyright laws. Some items contained in these presentations are taken from copyrighted material without express permission.
Human Population.
Lesson Overview 6.1 A Changing Landscape.
Do now: Describe the following cycles of the tropical rainforest:
Resource Management.
Welcome to Environmental Science
comments on your homework
Environmental Science
Food Security and Climate Change
Environmental Science
Lesson Overview 6.1 A Changing Landscape.
Our Environment Through Time
Lesson Overview 6.1 A Changing Landscape.
Why is there food insecurity?
Presentation transcript:

Global Food Security: defusing the ticking time-bombs Nature & Society Forum Canberra, March 20, 2013 Julian Cribb FTSE

Goal: feed >10 bn from Global food demand Food demand to double

A ‘wicked’ problem... DEMAND: 216,000 more people every day More babies + longer lives Population peak >10-11 bn Food demand soars in emerging economies Food demand +100% by 2060s +>50% climate penalty by 2100 CONSTRAINTS: ‘Peak water’ ‘Peak land’ ‘Peak oil’ ‘Peak P’ ‘Peak fish’ ‘R&D drought’ ‘Capital drought’ ‘Climate extinction’

Peak water Retreating rivers Vanishing lakes Groundwater mining Shrinking glaciers We each use > Disappearing deltas

The expert’s view “To feed 9 billion will require cu kms of water – twice our present use...or >50 more Aswan dams (11,000 SydHarbs) These vast amounts are not available” - Colin Chartres

Water timebomb Critical scarcity: Indo- Gangetic Plain, N China Plain, M-East, N-Africa. Energy sector: water demand to double. Cities: water demand to double. Will we have to double food production on half the water?

Soil timebomb “The Earth is losing topsoil at a rate of 75 to 100 GT. per year. If soil loss continues at present rates, it is estimated that there is only another 48 years of topsoil left.” - Marler & Wallin, Nutrition Security Institute, USA, 2006

Peak land Source: FAO SOLAW Report 2011  Peak land 2000

“... land and water systems now face the risk of progressive breakdown of their productive capacity due to excessive demographic pressure and unsustainable agricultural practices.” practices.” - FAO SOLAW Report 2011

Megacities: mega-risks By billion will live in cities Total urban area = China Urban water use 2800 cu kms Cities cannot feed themselves By 2020s...

Peak oil: 2006 Food uses 30% of global energy: FAO Food & oil prices are in lockstep  61m new vehicles/year  1.2 billion vehicles by 2020  Car growth +8% yr  Oil production growth +0.7%

Why we must recycle nutrients Peak phosphorus  < 30-50% of world’s food is currently wasted or lost post- harvest Resources for artificial fertilisers will Be scarce by 2050 >

Peak fish: 2004 “The maximum wild capture fishery potential from the world’s oceans has probably been reached.” – FAO 2012 But total fish demand could be 220mt or more by By 2060 we will need: 100m tonnes more fish 100m tonnes more fish 5 bn tonnes of stock feed 5 bn tonnes of stock feed new sources of transport fuel new sources of transport fuel = massive aquaculture opportunities....

Knowledge drought  R&D stagnation Falling ag.science Falling crop yields Global food R&D investment

Climate impact on food 10% less food for every 1 o of global warming 10% less food for every 1 o of global warming Metabolic impacts in the tropics Metabolic impacts in the tropics Farming ‘highly vulnerable’ above 2 o Farming ‘highly vulnerable’ above 2 o Need 150% more food than today by Need 150% more food than today by o C warming by 2100

Famine drives conflict Map: UK MoD

The challenge To double global food output with: - half the present fresh water - much less land - no fossil fuels (eventually) - scarce and costly fertilisers - less technology - inadequate $ investment - growing climate instability.

Solutions... Reinvent farming & food systems: sustainable, low-input eco-farming Reinvest massively in food S&T Reinvent the global diet: so it kills less planet & fewer people Redesign cities: to recycle water, nutrients, carbon and grow food.

The future ecofarm automation Combines best from advanced high-tech systems with permaculture thinking and automation Major focus on soil biology, crop science, nutrient recycling, soil, water, energy & carbon conservation Operates at small and large scales, across landscapes Desert farm

Urban farms: % of world’s food

Fish farming World demand for 550 million tonnes of meat and fish by 2100, +2 billion tonnes of feed.

Algae boom chemicals, textiles, drugs. By 2050 algae will supply much of the world’s liquid fuels, food, stockfeed, plastics, chemicals, textiles, drugs.

Bioculture boom

New crops: 25,000 edible plants

Our task now Pioneer eco-farming: more food with less water, energy, land, inputs Share food and ag knowledge globally Diets for health and sustainability Cities that recycle water, nutrients into novel food systems Inspire society with a new respect for food Understand that food is intrinsic to a safe, sustainable and peaceful world.

Debate global food security on: Thank you “The Coming Famine” is published by the University of California Press and CSIRO Publishing. It was supported by the Crawford Fund and Land & Water Australia. Follow us on Twitter: