Fire in the heavens, and fire along the hills Planning for a Sunburnt Country 2012 PIA National Congress, Adelaide David Wilson, Leichhardt Council Matthew Thompson, University of Technology, Sydney

Occurrence of large bushfires Two-thirds of Two-thirds of Australians live in the South-East Large bushfires Large bushfires Historically have Occurred every 3-10 years

Increases in risk for potential bushfires Research undertaken by CSIRO shows that by 2020 we expect to see a greater number of extreme fire weather days, longer fire seasons and a greater potential for multiple fire events like those seen in the Victorian fires. We don't yet know how these changes will impact fire behaviour. Research undertaken by CSIRO shows that by 2020 we expect to see a greater number of extreme fire weather days, longer fire seasons and a greater potential for multiple fire events like those seen in the Victorian fires. We don't yet know how these changes will impact fire behaviour.

Increases in risk for potential bushfires There is potential for a 100 to 200 per cent increase in bushfire risk by 2100 if Australia continues on its path of high emissions (Pitman, 2007). There is potential for a 100 to 200 per cent increase in bushfire risk by 2100 if Australia continues on its path of high emissions (Pitman, 2007). In the medium term to 2050 projected increase in fire risk is to be 10-25% in Canberra and % in Brisbane and Sydney. In the medium term to 2050 projected increase in fire risk is to be 10-25% in Canberra and % in Brisbane and Sydney.

Bushfires in A.C.T Bushfires have long been part of the Canberra, ACT landscape and understanding of the history of fire is critical in informing future land use planning decisions and to determine risk from fire.

Change in vegetation Since Canberra ’ s inception in 1913 there has been a dramatic shift from deciduous trees to native planting of eucalyptus, making the capital one of the most fire prone cities in Australia.

2003 Canberra Bushfires

McLeod Report – January 2003 Bushfires The Inquiry into the Operational Response to the January 2003 Bushfires in the ACT (McLeod Report) made a number of recommendations to minimise risk of fire hazard, including The Inquiry into the Operational Response to the January 2003 Bushfires in the ACT (McLeod Report) made a number of recommendations to minimise risk of fire hazard, including Identifying Bushfire Abatement Zones; Identifying Bushfire Abatement Zones; Developing bushfire protection planning principles; and Developing bushfire protection planning principles; and The declaration of a Bushfire Prone Area. The declaration of a Bushfire Prone Area.

Recent bushfires in Victoria The bushfires of Black Saturday, 7 February 2009, caused the death of 173 people. Black Saturday wrote itself into Victoria ’ s history with record-breaking weather conditions and bushfires of a scale and ferocity that tested human endurance. The bushfires of Black Saturday, 7 February 2009, caused the death of 173 people. Black Saturday wrote itself into Victoria ’ s history with record-breaking weather conditions and bushfires of a scale and ferocity that tested human endurance. Victoria has experienced major bushfires in the past. The 2009 Victorian fires were similar to those experienced on Black Friday in January 1939 and Ash Wednesday in February Victoria has experienced major bushfires in the past. The 2009 Victorian fires were similar to those experienced on Black Friday in January 1939 and Ash Wednesday in February _2_72/ai_n / _2_72/ai_n / _2_72/ai_n / _2_72/ai_n / news/victoria/ victorian-bushfires- royal-commission-final-report-released- includes-18-recommendations-for-planning- and-building.html news/victoria/ victorian-bushfires- royal-commission-final-report-released- includes-18-recommendations-for-planning- and-building.html news/victoria/ victorian-bushfires- royal-commission-final-report-released- includes-18-recommendations-for-planning- and-building.html news/victoria/ victorian-bushfires- royal-commission-final-report-released- includes-18-recommendations-for-planning- and-building.html

15 most damaging Victorian Bushfires Jan-Feb 2009

Key recommendations from Royal Commission Applying land-use planning and building controls to minimise or reduce bushfire risk presents challenges with little capacity to deal with past decisions and existing settlements or buildings in bushfire-prone areas, living in areas of extremely high risk. Applying land-use planning and building controls to minimise or reduce bushfire risk presents challenges with little capacity to deal with past decisions and existing settlements or buildings in bushfire-prone areas, living in areas of extremely high risk.

Key recommendations from Royal Commission The Royal Commission proposed to help people move away from areas where other bushfire risk-mitigation measures are not viable. Suggesting the development and implementation of a voluntary retreat and resettlement strategy—including non- compulsory land acquisition—for existing developments in areas at unacceptably high bushfire risk. The Royal Commission proposed to help people move away from areas where other bushfire risk-mitigation measures are not viable. Suggesting the development and implementation of a voluntary retreat and resettlement strategy—including non- compulsory land acquisition—for existing developments in areas at unacceptably high bushfire risk.

Proposed Development Site Lane Cove West, NSW Proposed Medium Density

Development in Bushfire Prone areas The value of land of land in Sydney has increased significantly over the last years meaning that willingness to develop on higher risk sites has increased. The value of land of land in Sydney has increased significantly over the last years meaning that willingness to develop on higher risk sites has increased. In the case study initially the Council had zoned the whole site for increased density residential in their LEP, however upon consideration with local residents and the state government this was reduced In the case study initially the Council had zoned the whole site for increased density residential in their LEP, however upon consideration with local residents and the state government this was reduced

Development in Bushfire Prone areas Concerns were raised due to traffic exiting during a bushfire event with parking restrictions mitigating this issue. Concerns were raised due to traffic exiting during a bushfire event with parking restrictions mitigating this issue. Currently a workable mitigation strategy involving limited or reduced development on Asset Protection Zone areas has been developed. Currently a workable mitigation strategy involving limited or reduced development on Asset Protection Zone areas has been developed.

Conclusions Research shows that bushfires may occur more often with greater intensity over the coming years Research shows that bushfires may occur more often with greater intensity over the coming years Sustainability in planting can at times lead to increased risk in the Canberra situation Sustainability in planting can at times lead to increased risk in the Canberra situation People potentially need to be moved out of harms way in the case of Victoria’s rural communities People potentially need to be moved out of harms way in the case of Victoria’s rural communities

Conclusions Why then even with a low risk are we proposing to increase densities near to bushfire prone areas in Sydney? Why then even with a low risk are we proposing to increase densities near to bushfire prone areas in Sydney? Bushfires are not a short-term problem, this should be considered as part of the intergenerational equity principles. Bushfires are not a short-term problem, this should be considered as part of the intergenerational equity principles. There is a need to respond to the very real dangers of bushfires. There is a need to respond to the very real dangers of bushfires.