Top 10 GMs/Executives of the 2000s 1 ) Scott Pioli, New England (NFL) 2) Ken Holland Detroit (NHL) 3) Theo Epstein Boston (MLB) 4) Kevin Colbert Pittsburgh.

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Presentation transcript:

Top 10 GMs/Executives of the 2000s 1 ) Scott Pioli, New England (NFL) 2) Ken Holland Detroit (NHL) 3) Theo Epstein Boston (MLB) 4) Kevin Colbert Pittsburgh (NFL) 5) R.C. Buford San Antonio (NBA) 6) Rick Hendrick (NASCAR) 7) Pat Gillick Philadelphia (MLB) 8) Jeremy Foley Florida (NCAA) 9) Joe Dumars (NBA) 10) Billy Beane (MLB)

YearWinsLossesDivision Finish Playoffs th nd st Lost ALDS to NYY nd Lost ALDS to NYY st Lost ALDS to Minn st Lost ALDS to Bos nd nd st Won ALDS vs. Minn, Lost ALCS to Det rd rd th nd rd st Lost ALDS to Det st Lost ALDS to Det nd Wild Card v. Kanas City Billy Beane in Oakland (1997: 65-97)

Question: Why hasn’t Beane won the last game?

“Other teams started using his moneyball principles” “He was the inventor, but other teams have started to use moneyball “

YearWinsLossesDivisionPlayoffs th nd st Lost ALDS to NYY nd Lost ALDS to NYYMoneyball Written st Lost ALDS to MinnMoneyball Published st Lost ALDS to Bos Moneyball Adopted by 6 Teams nd nd st Lost ALCS to Det rd rd th nd rd st Lost ALDS to Det st Lost ALDS to Det nd Wild Card v. Kanas City Billy Beane in Oakland (1997: 65-97)

Copy Cat League “Adapt or Die” Full-Time Sabermetric Analysts: New York Mets, New York Yankees, San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals, Boston Red Sox, Washington Nationals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Cleveland Indians, and the Toronto Blue Jays Cubs GM: Theo Epstein

Beane’s Response Undervalued Defensive Skills 2013 groundball rate rate 46.1%, flyball rate 23.6% Undervalued skill=fielding percentage Overvalue skilled=speed 2 nd in AL in earned runs allowed in 2014

YearWinsLossesDivisionPlayoffs th nd st Lost ALDS to NYY nd Lost ALDS to NYYMoneyball Written st Lost ALDS to MinnMoneyball Published st Lost ALDS to Bos Moneyball Adopted by 6 Teams nd nd st Lost ALCS to Det rd rd th nd rd st Lost ALDS to Det st Lost ALDS to Det nd Wild Card v. Kanas City Billy Beane in Oakland (1997: 65-97)

Moneyball & The NFL

NBA Moneyball 75% of NBA teams have full-time analytical stats Points per possession, not points per game Effective field goal percentage, not field goal percentage Rebounding percentage, not rebounds per game

NHL and Moneyball ESPN: 2 nd worst North American franchise (#1:T- wolves) – No Stanley Cups since 1967 – 1 playoff appearance since 2004 Brendan Shanahan new GM hires 28 assistant GM (no playing experience) – Hires a handful of bloggers who write on hockey analytics

Moneyball & Soccer

Using Moneyball Data in Business

2012 Presidential Race Romney v. Obama Dick Morris Predicted Romney would win Karl Rove Predicted Romney would win Rasmussen Reports predicted a 1% victory for Romney Gallup predicted a 1% victory for Romney Fox News & CNN: Tie (too close) A couple of polling sites predicted Obama: ABC, NBC, & Pew in a close contest

Nate Silver: Obama Blowout University of Chicago statistician Moneyball fanatic Started a website called Baseball Prospectus – Created PECOTA: A system that predicts future stat lines of players Became a political pundit using data

Moneyball & Politics Nate Silver – Correctly picked the 2012 Presidential Election Each state and the correct % Karl Rove, Dick Morris, and most political pundits got it wrong

The Likes & Dislikes of Moneyball What does Billy Beane look for? What does he dismiss?

The Likes & Dislikes of Moneyball 1)OBP: On Base Percentage 2)R: Runs Scored 3)Salary 1)BA: Batting Average 2)SB: Stolen Bases 3)RBI: Runs Batted In

Today: You are Peter Brand You are going to help Billy Beane improve the A’s for the 2015 season. Use Moneyball principles (OBP, R, & Salary) Work as a group or as an individual