Greenwich Forum Symposium 2015 ‘The Maritime Dimension of UK Food Security’ 27 th October 2015 Andrew Morgan: Global 78 Peter Baker: PRB Associates Overseas Supply Markets + Trade and Traffic Flows and Concentrations and the Port Interface

Individual Backgrounds Defra report ‘Resilience of the Food Supply to Port Disruption’ 4 import corridors and 4 food commodity groups Global 78 and PRB Associates Page 2 Andrew Morgan Global 78 Peter Baker PRB Associates 1978 on: logistics operations and mgt on: projects incl. –Safeway Stores (UK) –Sadia (Brazil) –Perdigao (Europe) –Grainfarmers (UK) 2011: Global 78 founded 1986 on: Exxtor Shipping Services, Immingham – Business Analyst and Manager Ro-Ro ferry and Lo-Lo container operations 1998 on: PRB Associates founded – continuing UK and Ireland Ro-Ro and Lo-Lo Capacity Report

Overseas Supply Markets – some issues and recent examples Page 3 Global 78 and PRB Associates

Key International Challenges Population growth –9 billion people by 2050 Demand for food –Demand predicted to soar Changing diets –Moving up the scale –Nutritional issues Push for food security –Often a nationalist approach Urbanisation –How to maintain agricultural and horticultural production –New consumer markets New markets coming on line –Competition for resources Transport revolution –Including containerisation Information revolution –Impact on behaviours –Phenomenon of big data Agricultural land use –Fuels vs. feeds vs. food Environmental impacts –Climate change –Water –De-forestation Upstream food loss –Reports of 30% or more Downstream food waste –Initiatives such as WRAP And many more Global 78 and PRB Associates

Mapping the Extended Supply Chain Production Port Manufacturing and processing Consumption Northern Hemisphere vs. Southern Hemisphere –Port interface changes as production “follows the sun” Food ingredients + food service + grocery retail Global 78 and PRB Associates

Bulk Imports – Soya from Brazil Santa Maria (RS) Porto Velho (RO) In-country distances from growing region to port – not to scale Paranagua Londrina (PR) 470 km 300 km Rio Grande Cuiaba (MT) Santos 1690 km 1460 km Belem 960 km Manaus (AM) 2400 km / 5 days 2941 km c. 50% production originates in Centre-West states (MT; MS; GO). Santos (30%) and Paranagua (25%) are the lead ports. Global 78 and PRB Associates

Frozen Vegetables from Europe Beans Brussel sprouts Cabbages Cauliflowers Celery Endives Leeks Onions Peas Potatoes Root vegetables Spinach Sugar snaps Zucchini Prepared vegetables Herbs Etc. Page 7 Global 78 and PRB Associates Retail Food Service Food ingredients

Bulk Wine from Australia (and other supply markets) Page 8 Global 78 and PRB Associates CLIMATE CHANGES WILL PRODUCE WINE WINNERS AND LOSERS “Climate change will produce winners and losers among wine growing regions, and for every region it will result in changes to the alcohol, acid, tannins, and color in wine. Winners include… Oregon and Washington, the Mendoza Province of Argentina and New Zealand” Antonio Busalacchi and Eric Hackert, University of Maryland. 31 July Flexitank single-trip 24,000 litre capacity / Insulated box / Reefer box High temperatures in transit affect structure / flavour and shelf-life of wines Challenge of temperature often under-estimated: containers stacked in tropical or equatorial ports for days: ambient temperature of 25 o C = internal temperature of 40 o C Insulated / refrigerated equipment rarely used Wine in bulk benefits from favourable ratio between vessel surface area : liquid volume. Bulk consignments take longer to heat but also to cool (i.e. wine can be cooked)

Page 9 Defra Report: Structure of Outputs FINAL REPORT September 2012 Annex 1: UK Food and Drink Import Data Background Annex 2: UK Food and Drink Supply Chains Annex 3: Dover and Channel Tunnel Import corridors Annex 5: Thames and Medway Annex 4: Felixstowe and Southampton Annex 6: Humber Annex 7: Meat and fish imports Food commodity groups Annex 8: Citrus fruit imports Annex 9: Sugar imports Annex 10: Palm oil imports Global 78 and PRB Associates

Trade and Traffic Flows and Concentrations and the Port Interface Page 10 Global 78 and PRB Associates

UK Food Imports; non-EU, EU and total (tonnes) Page 11 Global 78 and PRB Associates

Page 12 Flow Types and Modes of Appearance Global 78 and PRB Associates

Non-EU Food Imports; Unit load, Bulk, Total (tonnes) Page 13 Global 78 and PRB Associates

Share of non-EU Food Imports into UK in 2014 Page 14 Global 78 and PRB Associates

EU Food Imports; Unit Load, Bulk, Total Page 15 Global 78 and PRB Associates

Page 16 Import Corridors Global 78 and PRB Associates

Estimated Food Commodity Imports through Dover and Channel Tunnel Page 17 CommodityNon-EUEUTotal Frozen and chilled meat , (Estimated food via RoRo through Dover and Channel Tunnel) Fresh and frozen fish2.008 Citrus fruit, fresh or dried7.960 Palm oil0.000 Sugar0.015 Other commodities Total food import Total foreign import, EU estimated , , Global 78 and PRB Associates

P&O Spirit of France in Dover Page 18 Global 78 and PRB Associates

Cobelfret Ferries in Killingholme, Humber Page 19 Global 78 and PRB Associates

Estimated Food Commodity Imports through Felixstowe and Southampton Commodity (‘000 tonnes)Non-EUEU est.Total Frozen and chilled meat (Estimated food via RoRo and short sea LoLo through Felixstowe) Fresh and frozen fish Citrus fruit, fresh or dried Palm oil0.858 Sugar Other commodities2, Total food import2, Total foreign import, EU estimated25, , , Page 20 Global 78 and PRB Associates

Estimated Food Commodity Imports through Thames and Medway Commodity (‘000 tonnes)Non-EUEU est.Total Frozen and chilled meat , (Estimated food via RoRo and short sea LoLo through Purfleet, Tilbury and Dagenham, plus dry bulk food imports) Fresh and frozen fish5.841 Citrus fruit, fresh or dried Palm oil Sugar Other commodities2, Total food import3, Total foreign import, EU estimated21, , , Page 21 Global 78 and PRB Associates

Estimated Food Commodity Imports through Humber Ports Commodity (‘000 tonnes)Non-EUEU est.Total Frozen and chilled meat , (Estimated food via RoRo and short sea LoLo through Immingham, Killingholme, Hull & Goole, plus bulk food imports but not containers on RoRo) Fresh and frozen fish Citrus fruit, fresh or dried0.060 Palm oil Sugar Other commodities Total food import1, Total foreign import, EU estimated26, , , Page 22 Global 78 and PRB Associates

Page 23 Possible Causes and Impacts of Port Disruption Global 78 and PRB Associates

Page 24 Results and Findings Food import flows and shipping capacity are concentrated on a relatively small number of high-capacity ports and terminals Dominant size and capacity of some port routes and location of specialist import handling facilities make it difficult to switch supplies between ports in the event of port disruption at major entry points Although ports around the UK are dispersed geographically, the key ports serving the busiest international shipping routes and the largest concentration of population are concentrated in SE England Global 78 and PRB Associates

Thank you! Page 25 Global 78 and PRB Associates Andrew Morgan: Global 78 ( Peter Baker: PRB Associates (