American Government Run for the White House 2016

FOUR STAGES TO ELECTIONS PROCESS Primaries and Caucuses National Conventions General Election Electoral College

1 st Step Primaries and Caucuses

Step 1: Making the Decision Make sure you have a chance to win Losing can be harmful to future political endeavors No one likes a “loser”

Step 2: Making the Announcement Tell the world your intentions Make your announcement something that wins votes John Kerry on Daily Show Arnold on Tonight Show

Step 3: Fundraise…Like Seriously, Get Money Send out mailers soliciting donations Dinners A correlation between cash & political success? What?

Step 4: Get Ready for a Balancing Act Prepare a strategy for the primary election Must be further towards edges to beat others in the same party Prepare a strategy for the general election Must be further towards the center to beat other party’s candidate Have fun with that tightrope

Step 5: Iowa Caucus Iowa has the focus of the media First chance to get votes for the primary election Winning the Iowa Caucus provides momentum and early attention Not much of a predictor What is a Caucus? The Dean Scream ClipThe Dean Scream Clip Party members select the best candidate through a series of discussions and votes

Step 6: New Hampshire Primary New Hampshire Primary is a bit more of a predictor, but not perfect A pretty good indication of how the election is going to go Winner gets more attention, attention = money, money = success, ad infinitum

Step 7: Super Tuesday First Tuesday in February of election year Primaries in lots of states Can win the most votes on this day Choose your states wisely Can’t campaign in them all

Purpose of Primaries and Caucuses Presidential candidates of both parties campaign throughout the country to win delegates. Republicans The 2016 Republican primaries will take place under new GOP rules designed to shorten the length of time it takes a candidate to win the presidential nomination. Why? Drawn-out primary battles force the eventual nominee to spend too much of his time and money defending himself from attacks by members of his own party, thereby weakening the campaign before the fall election and exposing its flaws to the opposition.

2016 GOP Primary Calendar The first states to hold primaries, as usual, will be Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada in February 2016.States that attempt to jump ahead of those four states will be punished with the loss of delegates.. States that hold their primaries between March 1 and March 14, 2016, will award their delegates on a proportional basis. States voting on March 15, 2016, or later will award their delegates on a winner-take-all basis, meaning candidates will likely pay more attention to them.

2016 Democrat Calendar 3,200 base delegates with 5,500 delegates total Differences between delegates and super delegatessuper delegates Super delegate: An unelected delegate who is free to support any candidate for the presidential nomination at the party's national convention.

Stage 2 National Convention

Two Purposes of National Conventions Each party holds a national convention to select a final presidential nominee Must obtain number of delegates to receive nomination Pledged delegates Brokered Convention Importance of 1 st Ballot Platform: A series of position statements that the political party holds This is usually done in the first two days of the convention.

Step 1: Pick a Vice-PresidentVice-President Doesn’t really matter that much MUST have something you are missing If you are moderate, get someone more towards edges If you are young, get someone experienced Geography, Battleground State, Gender, Diversity,etc Can’t win election, but can lose it if you pick a terrible one

Step 2: National ConventionNational Huge party! ChicagoChicago Celebrate you Might not hurt to take a few potshots at your opponent …Or spend the whole time doing that Superdelegates: Party celebrities who get convention votes and are not bound to vote for anyone in particular (Mostly Dems)

Stage 3 General Election

Step 1: DebatesD Message, Message, Message It’s not about policy anymore Who looks better? Who sounds better? Who has better catchphrases and labels for opponent?

Third Party Candidates The CPD's third criterion requires that the candidate have a level of support of at least 15% (fifteen percent) of the national electorate as determined by five selected national public opinion polling organizations, using the average of those organizations' most recent publicly-reported results at the time of the determination.

Stage 4 Electoral College

Why the Electoral College? The framers of the Constitution disagreed on how to elect a president Congressional selection Direct popular election. The electoral college was a compromise combining features of both approaches.

How do we determine the number of electoral college votes each state gets? Each state is entitled to as many electoral votes as the sum of its representation U.S. House of Representatives U.S. House of Senate Wisconsin: 8 House members plus 2 senators = 10 electoral votes Total: 435 House members 100 senators 3 electors for the District of Columbia = 538 electoral votes

Who are these electors? Individuals selected in each state to officially cast that state’s electoral votes. Wisconsin selects 10 electors to cast the state’s 10 electoral votes. Individuals selected in each state to officially cast that state’s electoral votes. Framers anticipated that electors would be state leaders who would exercise good judgment. Today, party leaders select electors who are typically long-time party activists. Electors almost always vote for their party’s candidates. Today, party leaders select electors who are typically long-time party activists. Electors almost always vote for their party’s candidates.

What happens if no one gets to 270? To win, a candidate needs a majority, 270 electoral votes. If no candidate has a majority the House of Representatives selects the president from among the three presidential candidates with the most electoral votes. If this happens, each state has one vote. Happened only once! The Senate selects the vice president from the top two vice- presidential candidates.

Popular Vote v. Electoral College Vote In a close race, the popular vote winner may not win the electoral college. One candidate may win states by lopsided margins while the other wins states by narrow margins. Electoral vote winners who lost the popular vote Bush over Gore in 2000 Benjamin Harrison over Grover Cleveland in 1888 Rutherford B. Hayes over Samuel Tilden in 1876

Criticisms of the Process The popular vote winner may lose the presidency. Electors may vote for persons other than their party’s presidential and vice presidential candidates. If no candidate receives a majority, Congress will pick the president and vice president.

Reforms???? Eliminate electors but still count electoral votes. Choose the president by direct popular election.