Global Dynamic Strategy February 2008 Peter Cazalet+44 207 742 8503 John Stainsby+44 (0)20 7742 3916

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Presentation transcript:

Global Dynamic Strategy February 2008 Peter Cazalet John Stainsby+44 (0)

Global Dynamic_0607.ppt 1 Your team Peter Cazalet Client Advisor John Stainsby Client Portfolio Manager

Global Dynamic_0607.ppt 2 Agenda Investment Process - Refresher Performance Review Agenda

Global Dynamic_0607.ppt 3 JPM Global Dynamic strategy What is Global Dynamic?-style driven, selecting the best of growth and value -high return generating -Multi cap approach Investment process-disciplined stock screens combined with fundamental research Portfolio construction -highly diversified by stock, region and sector Consistency-outperforms through style and market cycles Performance-+5.3% p.a. outperformance since inception Introduction Transparent, consistent and repeatable performance

Global Dynamic_0607.ppt 4 Key investment concepts Extreme value  fundamentally sound stocks which are out of fashion Extreme growth  stocks growing earnings faster than market supported by good news flow Barbell  value works 60%, growth works 60%, combined works 70%-90% of the time... The barbell concept: long of value and long of growth at all times On average, fast growing cheap stocks with good news flow outperform slow growing expensive stocks with bad news flow Key Concepts

Global Dynamic_0607.ppt 5 Disciplined stockscreeningFundamentalvalidationDisciplined portfolioconstruction Investment Process: Three key steps MSCI universe of 3000 names Screen for relative value, growth and quality Identify top quintiles in each market In depth local research Global sector based research Validate names from top quintiles into portfolio Diversified by stock, sector and region Multi-cap strategy Style and stock factors dominate Investment Process

Global Dynamic_0607.ppt 6 Agenda Investment Process - Refresher Performance Review Agenda

Global Dynamic_0607.ppt 7 Suffolk County Council - Performance Suffolk account returns versus MSCI All Countries World Source: JPMorgan, base returns as of 31 December 2007 in GBP, gross of fees. Inception data is 20 July Geometric excess returns %: 3 Months Since Inception Performance Market Value of portfolio as at 31 st December 2007 £181,807,931

Global Dynamic_0607.ppt 8 Global Dynamic attribution Source: JPMorgan, Suffolk County Council account. Returns are calculated by Factset and may differ from the official published portfolio and benchmark returns Base currency: GBP. Attribution analysis from inception 20 th July 2007 to end December 2007 Sector AttributionRegional Attribution Performance Attribution

Global Dynamic_0607.ppt 9 Regional and sector deviations Regional portfolio weighting % Regional and sector deviations are small… Source: JPMorgan. Regional weights sourced from BoNY. Sector weights sourced from Factset. 31 December 2007 Japan 7.4 North America45.2 United Kingdom 9.4 Pacific ex Japan 4.3 Europe ex UK 21.4 Cash 0.7 Emerging Markets 11.6 Regional active weights % Underweight / Overweight IT 10.0 Consumer Staples7.5 Energy11.2 Industrials 10.8 Utilities 4.6 Consumer Discretionary 9.4 Telecoms 5.8 Materials 8.3 Health Care 8.4 Financials Sector portfolio weighting %Sector active weights % Portfolio Characteristics

Global Dynamic_0607.ppt has seen a change in style leadership … 2007 has seen greater volatility than normal MSCI Value Index / MSCI Growth Index Relative returns Source: Datastream. Rebased to 100 as at 31/12/99. Data to 31/12/07. MSCI Value Index / MSCI Growth Index Relative returns 2007 to date Source: Datastream. Rebased to 100 as at 31/12/06. Data to 31/12/07. Style Analysis

Global Dynamic_0607.ppt 11 Style contribution over the short and long term Size Growth/momentum Value Source: Returns are calculated by Barra and may differ from the official published portfolio and benchmark returns Source of % Return Exposure Contribution Cumulative contributions to total return Source of % Return Exposure Contribution 3 months ending 31 December years ending 31 December A dynamic portfolio – always long both value and growth Style Analysis Size Growth/momentum Value

Global Dynamic_0607.ppt 12 Portfolio characteristics VALUE P/E 14.3x16.5x Price/book2.5x2.7x GROWTH Historic earnings growth23.8%19.2% Forecast dividend growth9.3%7.8% QUALITY ROE 19.9%18.6% Debt/Equity44%45% PortfolioBenchmark Value Growth Size Predicted Beta 1.05 Style Characteristics Source: UBS PAS, Factset, 31 December 2007 Source: Barra, 31 December 2007 Portfolio Characteristics

Global Dynamic_0607.ppt 13 To 31 December Outperformance in 82% of quarters Source: JPMorgan Asset Management, *Global Dynamic Composite, gross of fees, GBP. Relative returns calculated geometrically. Composite inception: January Relative Return % Global Dynamic Strategy: Strong and consistent performance record… Performance

Global Dynamic_0607.ppt 14 Going forward… View on cyclical stocks (particularly mining, industrials, energy) softening –Momentum deteriorating with some early signs of earnings downgrades Defensive sectors (consumer staples, healthcare) now ranking relatively better Financials look attractive on value factors, but earnings power remains uncertain and momentum is not supportive Favouring large cap over mid and small cap Growth has strongly outperformed value in the last 12 months Emerging markets has been re-rated, but growth prospects remain strong. We could see a shorter-term risk aversion sell-off Markets Portfolio is getting more defensive…

Global Dynamic_0607.ppt 15 Appendix

Global Dynamic_0607.ppt 16 The Global Dynamic Team Dynamic/Intrepid: Sandeep Bhargava – Lead PM Howard Williams Supporting Portfolio Managers Matthew Beesley Patrick Chiu (Hong Kong) Shane Duffy James Fisher Ian Henderson Tai Nakagawa (Tokyo) Ed Walker Peter Warnes (Hong Kong) Hugo Alexander James Andrew Stuart Connell Chee Chow Marc Gration Alexandra Howard Jeremy Kelton Tom Murray Paul Neoh Fran Sanderson Burcu Ugurtas Portfolio Analysts Andrew Lim* Zenah Shuhaiber* Craig Thompson Helen Wild London John Stainsby Louise Henckel Alex Robins Frances Gerhold Rebecca Sharp Nicole Vettise New York Nigel Emmett Pavlos Alexandrakis Tim Leask Kit Rodrigo Jon Sherman …supported by 200 local research analysts and the global equities team *Dedicated to Global Dynamic Strategy Portfolio Managers Global Sector SpecialistsClient Portfolio Managers Average industry experience: 15yrs Average industry experience: 10yrs Average industry experience: 13yrs People

Global Dynamic_0607.ppt 17 Any forecasts or opinions expressed are JPMorgan’s own at the date of this document and may be subject to change. The value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate and your investment is not guaranteed and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Exchange rates may cause the value of underlying overseas investments to go down or up. Investments in smaller companies may involve a higher degree of risk as they are usually more sensitive to market movements. Investments in emerging markets may be more volatile than other markets and the risk to your to your capital is therefore greater. Also, the economic and political situations may be more volatile than in established economies and these may adversely influence the value of investments made. Telephone lines are recorded and may be monitored for security and training purposes JPMorgan Asset Management