สำนักงานวิจัยเพื่อการพัฒนา หลักประกันสุขภาพไทย Basic Training on the RAP Thaworn Sakunphanit MD., BA. (Economic), MSc. (Social Policy Financing ) Orawan Prasitsiriphon BS. (Math), MSc. (Actuarial) 15 May 2012 HANDS-ON TRAINING COURSE HOW TO COST, FINANCE AND MONITOR SOCIAL PROTECTION SCHEMES?

สำนักงานวิจัยเพื่อการพัฒนา หลักประกันสุขภาพไทย RAP is a Simpify Planning Model

สำนักงานวิจัยเพื่อการพัฒนา หลักประกันสุขภาพไทย Social Protection scheme and its determining Factors: Heath Care Demographic Labour force Health Status Technoogy Economics Governance Revenue - Contribution, tax - Income - Dependency ratio Expenditure - Unit cost - Utilization

The emergence of ILO basic social protection tool models COUNTRY- SPECIFIC GENERIC + SIMPLISTIC + ELABORATED First ILO costing model (2005) 7 African and 5 Asian low income countries Developed in cooperation with DfID First ILO costing model (2005) 7 African and 5 Asian low income countries Developed in cooperation with DfID Rapid Assmt. Protocol (RAP) Joint ILO/UNICE F costing tool Actuarial models Social Budgets SPERs*

The Rapid Assessment Protocol RAP 1.0 Developed by ILO Social Security Department for the Group of Co-operating agencies and development partners to the Social Protection Floor Initiative Dec 2010 – UNICEF ILO Costing Tool –First « in-the-field test » of the model –Detailed revision of the model Jan 2011 – ILO Rapid Assessment Protocol –First « in-the-field test » of the model –Model presentation and discussion

Data entry and calculations Population Data Labour Force Data Economy Government operations Benefit parameters  Summary results SOURCES and ASSUMPTIONS ARE DOCUMENTED AT EACH STEP!

INPUT VARIABLESINTERMEDIATE RESULTS FINAL RESULTS GREEN CELLS: Exclusive for the input variables and parameters BLUE CELLS: Projections and other calculations. These cells are free to modify. RED CELLS: Results. The formulas in these cells should not be modified. Color coding

Structure of the RAP Simplistic and adaptable projections User-friendly Allows estimations of future costs of cash transfer elements of the SPF LABOUR MARKET LABOUR MARKET MODEL MACROECONOMIC MODEL GENERAL GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS MODEL BENEFITS COSTING EXERCISE SUMMARY AND RESULTS DEMOGRAPHIC FRAMEWORK

SUM SUMMARY AND RESULTS Content of the spreadsheet POP POPULATION BY AGE AND SEX LAB ACTIVITY RATES AND ECO ACTIVE POP FOSOSE EXISTING SOCIAL SECURITY GGO (SQ) GENERAL GOV. OPERATIONS (STATUS QUO) GGO (BS) GENERAL GOV. OPERATIONS (BEN. SCENARIO) ECO MACRO- ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK BEN (n) BENEFIT – MODELING EXERCISE BEN (...) BENEFIT – MODELING EXERCISE BEN (2) BENEFIT – MODELING EXERCISE BEN (1) BENEFIT – MODELING EXERCISE SOURCES LIST OF SOURCES README GENERAL INFORMATION ON THE RAP ASSUMPT LIST OF ASSUMPTIONS FOR PROJECTION Complementary worksheets - 6 Main worksheets establishing the analysis framework - 1 worksheet per each benefit scheme - 1 worksheet for summary and results

SUM SUMMARY AND RESULTS Content of the spreadsheet POP POPULATION BY AGE AND SEX LAB ACTIVITY RATES AND ECO ACTIVE POP FOSOSE EXISTING SOCIAL SECURITY GGO (SQ) GENERAL GOV. OPERATIONS (STATUS QUO) GGO (BS) GENERAL GOV. OPERATIONS (BEN. SCENARIO) ECO MACRO- ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK BEN (n) BENEFIT – MODELING EXERCISE BEN (...) BENEFIT – MODELING EXERCISE BEN (2) BENEFIT – MODELING EXERCISE BEN (1) BENEFIT – MODELING EXERCISE SOURCES LIST OF SOURCES README GENERAL INFORMATION ON THE RAP ASSUMPT LIST OF ASSUMPTIONS FOR PROJECTION 10 Summary and results Standard layout for presenting results Summary and results Standard layout for presenting results Benefit scheme design Identification of gaps (social protection needs) Should take into account social protection priorities already defined in national development plans Benefits can be universal, targeted, means-tested, etc. Precise design and other considerations are subject to the availability of micro data. National household surveys (or other sources of micro data) are therefore required. Benefit scheme design Identification of gaps (social protection needs) Should take into account social protection priorities already defined in national development plans Benefits can be universal, targeted, means-tested, etc. Precise design and other considerations are subject to the availability of micro data. National household surveys (or other sources of micro data) are therefore required. Establishes the main analysis framework: Population, Labour participation rates, Economically active populatio, Economy, General government operations, Formal social security institutions Information and references README worksheet provides basic information about the rapid assessment protocol such as the scope, the structure, and some definitions and formulas Sources and assumptions should always be listed in order to facilitate further reviews of the calculations Information and references README worksheet provides basic information about the rapid assessment protocol such as the scope, the structure, and some definitions and formulas Sources and assumptions should always be listed in order to facilitate further reviews of the calculations

Macroeconomic framework 11 Baseline data: GDP deflator growth rate, GDP deflator, real GDP growth rates, real GDP, nominal GDP Projections: GDP deflator growth rates, real GDP growth rates Estimations: GDP deflator using GDP deflator growth rates, real GDP using real GDP growth rates Nominal GDP using GDP deflator and real GDP

Real GDP Labour market framework 12 Baseline data: Activity rates, labour productivity, labour productivity growth rates Projections: Activity rates, labour productivity growth rates Estimations: Labour productivity using labour productivity growth rates, economically active population using activity rates and population Employed population using real GDP and labour productivity Unemployed population using the economically active population and the employed population

Balance Growth drivers -Population growth -Employed growth -GDP growth -Consumer Price Index -Wage Indexation -Other General government operations 13

สำนักงานวิจัยเพื่อการพัฒนา หลักประกันสุขภาพไทย RAP Cannot Rank them according to societal priorities Select the interventions Select one of the strategies Select a specific financing system Select the actual mix of public/ private responsibilities In the national system

สำนักงานวิจัยเพื่อการพัฒนา หลักประกันสุขภาพไทย