WHY IS POPULATION INCREASING AT DIFFERENT RATES IN DIFFERENT COUNTRIES? Chapter 2 Section 3

Variations in Population Growth The Demographic Transition – 1. Low growth– 3. Moderate growth – 2. High growth– 4. Low growth Population pyramids – Age distribution – Sex ratio Countries in different stages of demographic transition Demographic transition and world population growth

Demographic Transition This is the process of change in a society’s population from a condition of high crude birth and death rates and high rate of natural increase to a condition of low crude birth and death rates, low rate of natural increase, and a higher total population

Demographic Transition This is the process of change in a society’s population that tends to hold true for most regions (all countries fall into one of its stages) A transition is a change Demographics measure population characteristics

Stage 1: Low Growth Most of human history was in this stage Crude birth and death rates varied greatly each year and from region to region- overall they were both at very high levels The NIR was around 0 and the world population stuck around ½ million for a long time

Stage 1: Low Growth This took up most of prehistory Most people were nomadic hunter/gatherer/fishermen They just sustained and couldn’t support large populations When they started farming around 10,000 to 8,000 BC (Neolithic/Agricultural Revolution)- the world’s population began to grow, up to 5 million! Farming can support more people- civilizations began to form and standard of living rose

Stage 1: Low Growth Although farming caused an increase in population- life was still unpredictable and growth rates were still low as death rates were still very high Most of human history was in stage 1 No region is in stage 1 today

Stage 2: High Growth For around 10,000-11,000+ years after the Agricultural Revolution, the world population grew moderately Around AD 1750 it exploded and started growing 10 times faster than ever before World population grew by about 5 million (people added) in 1800 compared to only about ½ million (people added) in 1750 This occurred because around 1750 is when some countries moved to stage 2 of the demographic transition

Stage 2: High Growth In stage 2, CBR remains the same as stage 1 (high), but CDR plummets, making NIR very high Population grows rapidly Stage 2 can be divided into two parts: – 1. Period of accelerating population growth – 2. Growth rate slows, but the gap between births and deaths remains high

Stage 2: High Growth Countries in stage 2 are industrializing The year this started in world history is around when Great Britain began the Industrial Revolution The Industrial Revolution was when people began to make goods by machine in factories rather than by hand in homes and coincided with scientific, technological, farming (grew lots more food and could support more mouths), and medical breakthroughs- making life easier, the standard of living higher, and life expectancy longer

Stage 2: High Growth Europe and North America entered stage 2 around 1800, but Latin America, Africa, and Asia didn’t hit stage 2 until around the mid 1900s! In the 20 th century, population exploded- the world added around 80 million people in 2000 vs. 8 million in 1900! The medical revolution helped pull Asia, Latin America, and Africa into stage 2 in the mid- 1900s- this was when medical technology invented in Europe and North America diffused to those countries and helped eliminate many traditional causes of death in LDCs- vaccines, antiseptics, antibiotics, and knowledge.

Stage 3: Moderate Growth A country moves from stage 2 to stage 3 when the CBR begins to drop sharply The CDR also continues to fall in stage 3 but slower than in stage 2 The population still grows because CBR is still higher than CDR European and North American nations hit stage 3 in the first half of the 1900s

Stage 3: Moderate Growth Most countries in Asia and Latin American moved to stage 3 in recent years Most African countries are still in stage 2 CDR in stage 2 dropped because of inventions and improvements CBR in stage 3 drops because of social changes and expectations (fewer farmers, lower infant mortality rate, gender expectation changes, more working women)

Stage 4: Low Growth A country reaches stage 4 when the CBR declines to the point where it equals the CDR and the NIR approaches 0 This is called Zero Population Growth (ZPG) CBR can still be slightly higher than CDR Countries at stage 4 can be identified as countries often with very low TFR The US just moved below 2.1 TFR recently and is classified here with Canada, much of Europe, Australia, and some countries in Asia like Japan Social customs changes again explain this drop in TFR- more women working, fewer farmers, lower IMR, more equal rights, more birth control, etc…

End of cycle Start at high CBRs and CDRs and end at low CBRs and CDRs However, you end in stage 4 with a much larger population than in stage 1 This is a general cycle that most regions have gone through We have countries from stage 2 to stage 4 today

The Demographic Transition Fig. 2-13: The demographic transition consists of four stages, which move from high birth and death rates, to declines first in death rates then in birth rates, and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates. Population growth is most rapid in the second stage.

World Population & Growth Rates, 400,000 BC - AD 2000

England Stage 1: Low Growth to 1750 Stage 2: High Growth from 1750 to 1880 Stage 3: Moderate Growth from 1880 to the early 1970s Stage 4: Low Growth from the early 1970s to Present

Demographic Transition in England Fig. 2-14: England was one of the first countries to experience rapid population growth in the mid- eighteenth century, when it entered stage 2 of the demographic transition.

HANS ROSLINGS’ PRESENTATION OF POPULATION/STANDARD OF LIVING CHANGE y_mode=true&persist_safety_mode=1&safe=active

Population Pyramids This is a bar graph that displays a country’s population by age and gender groups on a bar graph It often looks somewhat like a pyramid The stage of growth it is in dictates what its pyramid looks like A population pyramid normally shows the percentage of the total population in 5 year age groups with the youngest at the bottom and the oldest at the top, men on one side, women on the other, and the length of the bar represents the percentage of the total population.

Population Pyramids Displaying data in a more visual/user- friendly format rather than rows and rows of statistics

WORLD POPULATION PYRAMID PROJECTIONS

Population Pyramids in U.S. cities Fig. 2-16: Population pyramids can vary greatly with different fertility rates (Laredo vs. Honolulu), or among military bases (Unalaska), college towns (Lawrence), and retirement communities (Naples).

HOW TO READ A POPULATION PYRAMID rsist_safety_mode=1&safe=active

Population Pyramids A country in stage 2 is going to have a high CBR and CDR and shorter life expectancy so there will be a lot of young children and few old people, making it look like a normal pyramid A country in stage 3 may have a wider top or something that looks more like a cylinder

Age distribution People 14 and under are too young to work and people over 65 are too old to work (traditionally) They are called dependents The other people- ages 15 to 64- have to support them One important ratio is the dependency ration which compares the number of people too young or old to work to those working- the larger the number of dependents the more strain on the workers

Age distribution The dependency ratio is around 1:1 in stage 2 countries (lots of kids, but not many old people) In stage 4 it is 1:2 1/3 of people in LDCs and stage 2 countries are under 15 In many stage 4 countries, people live much longer than 65 years and put burdens on the workers (the “graying” of the population)- think of the social security crisis!

Percent of Population under 15 Fig. 2-15: About one-third of world population is under 15, but the percentage by country varies from over 40% in most of Africa and some Asian countries, to under 20% in much of Europe.

Elderly Shoppers in Russia

Sex ratio The number of males per hundred females in the population is the sex ratio It varies in countries- there are slightly more males than females born, but males have higher death rates Women also tend to have slightly longer life expectancies- in the US, males outnumber females 105 to 100 under age 15, by age 40, women outnumber men, and by 65, women make up 58% of their age group

Sex Ratio In Europe and America, the ratio of men to women is around 95 to 100 and in most of the rest of the world it is 102 to 100 China is an odd case- they force family planning (1 child per family, if you have more, you have to pay heavy taxes) Most men want a son (there have been many abortions and children put up for adoption as a result who are girls) China’s sex ratio is manipulated as such

China’s Population Pyramid More baby boys are born You have a slightly higher male to female ratio By the older ages- over 65- women do still start to outnumber men usa.com/level_4_data/hum/011_7a.htm usa.com/level_4_data/hum/011_7a.htm

Population Pyramids in U.S. cities Fig. 2-16: Population pyramids can vary greatly with different fertility rates (Laredo vs. Honolulu), or among military bases (Unalaska), college towns (Lawrence), and retirement communities (Naples).

US CENSUS BUREAU INFORMATION

Stage 2 Sample: Cape Verde Cape Verde is a small archipelago in the Atlantic- west of Africa It gained its independence from Portugal in 1975 and moved to stage 2 around 1950 Before 1950s, the population growth was low- high deaths, high births In 1950, it exploded- it has tripled This happened when an anti-malaria campaign was introduced, significantly lowering the CDR

Rapid Growth in Cape Verde Fig. 2-17: Cape Verde, which entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in about 1950, is experiencing rapid population growth. Its population history reflects the impacts of famines and out-migration.

Stage 3 Sample: Chile Chile has changed from a rural farming society to an urban society People in Chile still have large families though- social norm Chile’s CDR dropped in the 1930s, moving it to stage 2 with new medical technology Around 1960, the CDR declined further and the CBR dropped sharply; however, it has not dropped much since then and most likely won’t for a while Stage 4 will not be reached for a while

Moderate Growth in Chile Fig. 2-18: Chile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the 1930s, and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s.

Stage 4 Example: Denmark Denmark, like most Western European countries, is in stage 4 It entered stage 2 in the 1800s with the CDR decline It moved to stage 3 in the late 1800s when the CBR dropped Since the 1970s, the CBR and CDR have been around equal- giving it ZPG Its relatively cylindrical, stacked population pyramid shows this

Low Growth in Denmark Fig. 2-19: Denmark has been in stage 4 of the demographic transition since the 1970s, with little population growth since then. Its population pyramid shows increasing numbers of elderly and few children.

Census A census is a population count In the US it occurs ever ten years- years ending in 0 This gives human geographers some of their most important statistics However, it is not completely accurate- some don’t respond, some lie, etc… It does give us lots of information- almost all countries conduct these today Population determines a lot in a country- from representation to government planning and budgeting

Census taking in China

Population Distribution It varies worldwide It varies within each country It changes Often we like to look at the center of population of a country (if it was a piece of light board and you were balancing it on a pencil tip based on the weight of population- each person being equal- where would it balance?)

S/DATA/CENTER-OF-POPULATION.PHP Center of Population Map

Uneven Population Growth It does change over time Examine two cartograms: one from 1900, one modern day, and one projection for 2050 How are they alike? How are they different?

1900

2050